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SunSeeker

(51,550 posts)
6. And she also was misleading about the UK death projections being "revised" from 500k to 20k.
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:47 AM
Mar 2020

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London had presented a model that projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and flatten its curve. The model predicted far fewer deaths if lockdown measures — measures such as those taken by the British and some US states — were undertaken. After lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.

Ferguson explained, “I should admit, we’ve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction… something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5.” A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.

Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, Ferguson predicts UK hospitals should be able to handle their COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or fewer people will die from the virus itself or related complications. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Amid widespread reporting on his new death rate estimates — including by Dr. Birx, who cited his 20,000 estimate during Thursday's press conference — Ferguson issued a statement on social media Thursday to “clear up confusion” about his revised estimates:

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).



So he DIDN'T change his earlier projection, but Birx (and every right wing internet site) says he did. And are now using it to argue that we should lift the lockdowns.
Maybe Birx is Tump's Mengele. nt woodsprite Mar 2020 #1
And she also was misleading about the UK death projections being "revised" from 500k to 20k. SunSeeker Mar 2020 #6
My state has a population of about 5 million mercuryblues Mar 2020 #2
+1, everyone knows math but her and Red Dons minions uponit7771 Mar 2020 #4
K&R, she knows they don't have the per capita testing new your or Seattle has uponit7771 Mar 2020 #3
She said something yesterday... Mike Nelson Mar 2020 #5
They are not testing enough people. The test kits are just not available in a lot of cases, so they still_one Mar 2020 #7
Yup. The only widespread "testing" we have are Kinsa thermometer reading data. SunSeeker Mar 2020 #9
In addition, the problem with using temperature as a guide is that not everyone infected exhibits a still_one Mar 2020 #10
Simple, she works for tRump. BigmanPigman Mar 2020 #8
Her sterling reputation is dying. SunSeeker Mar 2020 #14
Is there a"terrible" reporter that can ask her to explain her answer? dem4decades Mar 2020 #11
That's a nasty question! SunSeeker Mar 2020 #13
Time to take the gloves off, at least for the reporters. dem4decades Mar 2020 #19
Yes. LONG overdue. nt SunSeeker Mar 2020 #20
uh, #orangeface's goons threatened her life? deminks Mar 2020 #12
Doubtful atreides1 Mar 2020 #15
She's been compromised for whatever reason. spanone Mar 2020 #16
She hasn't the strength to stand up to Trump. LuckyCharms Mar 2020 #17
KOMPROMAT!!! mfcorey1 Mar 2020 #18
Because we ARE testing mathematic Mar 2020 #21
Well they're not in CA, our most populous state, so how can she say we're testing? SunSeeker Mar 2020 #22
Not testing people with no/mild symtoms is standard around the world mathematic Mar 2020 #23
What states are "leadung in testing" that you are referring to? nt SunSeeker Mar 2020 #24
Are you disputing that not testing people with no/mild symptoms is standard around the world? mathematic Mar 2020 #25
I'm disputing Birx's asserting that we're testing the population. SunSeeker Mar 2020 #27
Neither her or Trump will be able to lie about the number of people dying. nt Blue_true Mar 2020 #26
Unfortunately that's not even true Iwasthere Mar 2020 #28
Families will wonder about exactly what killed their loved one, Blue_true Mar 2020 #29
why? come on. She has no soul. beachbumbob Mar 2020 #30
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