General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Why did Dr. Birx lie that there is Covid-19 testing of the U.S. population? [View all]SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London had presented a model that projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and flatten its curve. The model predicted far fewer deaths if lockdown measures measures such as those taken by the British and some US states were undertaken. After lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.
Ferguson explained, I should admit, weve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What weve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction
something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5. A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.
Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, Ferguson predicts UK hospitals should be able to handle their COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or fewer people will die from the virus itself or related complications. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
Amid widespread reporting on his new death rate estimates including by Dr. Birx, who cited his 20,000 estimate during Thursday's press conference Ferguson issued a statement on social media Thursday to clear up confusion about his revised estimates:
Link to tweet
So he DIDN'T change his earlier projection, but Birx (and every right wing internet site) says he did. And are now using it to argue that we should lift the lockdowns.