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Showing Original Post only (View all)Biden's Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight [View all]
Last edited Sat Aug 29, 2020, 03:54 PM - Edit history (2)
... Democrats are much likelier than Republicans to say they will vote by mail which makes sense given that Democrats also tend to be more supportive of mail voting. (By contrast, the Republican standard bearer, President Trump, has repeatedly and inaccurately assailed mail voting as ripe for fraud.)
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Bidens votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although its unlikely theyd actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.
According to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 30 percent of registered voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 43 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. But among Trump supporters, only 11 percent said they planned to vote by mail, and 66 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. Among Joe Biden backers, 47 percent said they planned to vote by mail, while only 26 percent said they planned to vote in person on Election Day. (The share who said they would vote early in person was consistently 20-21 percent among all three groups: Trump supporters, Biden supporters and voters overall.)
If this holds, it would mean votes cast on Election Day would skew heavily toward Trump, and votes cast by mail would skew heavily toward Biden. This has serious implications for well, democracy. First, Trump could argue the mail ballots (which, remember, could account for most of Bidens votes) were fraudulent and thus should not be counted. Although its unlikely theyd actually be thrown out, this would damage the credibility of the election in the eyes of many Trump supporters. Second, it could mean the first votes counted on election night will be disproportionately good for Trump, who might claim victory based on incomplete returns. It might not be until days later, after a good chunk of the Democratic-leaning mail vote is counted, that Biden pulls ahead.
More at FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
I'm voting early and in person - I want to see my vote counted.
Adding what DrunkenIrishman pointed out below: "... most states begin counting mail-in ballots first, not last. If a bulk of mail-in ballots are received prior to election day (which they should be), they will be counted first and then the same-day ballots will be counted."
Good information! Regardless, vote early and be sure your vote is counted.
https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx
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Biden's Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight [View all]
mzmolly
Aug 2020
OP
Trump supporters won't believe credibility of the election if their idol doesn't win, regardless
LisaL
Aug 2020
#1
538 says and does a lot of things that are not correct. He wants a horse race, just like the media
Thekaspervote
Aug 2020
#8
I get that, all the same silver just like trump is wanting to cast doubt on the election
Thekaspervote
Aug 2020
#83
No where in the article does it say mail-in ballots will be counted last.
Drunken Irishman
Aug 2020
#60
No. You've got people holding you accountable to your misinterpretation.
Drunken Irishman
Aug 2020
#111
I showed you the own quote from your article where they said a significant amount will be counted.
Drunken Irishman
Aug 2020
#114
I'll be honest. I stopped reading after the IDGAF about the OP article.
Drunken Irishman
Aug 2020
#69
The part you apparently skipped on his post is a claim that the election officials in PA disagree...
PTWB
Aug 2020
#99
Yes, but if you read these rules, a lot of states can start scanning absentee ballots before the
LisaL
Aug 2020
#24
Best way is early voting as early as possible in case you have to quarantine or get covid
mucifer
Aug 2020
#15
If not voting in person early or on Election Day, hand deliver your mail in ballot. Don't risk it
Thekaspervote
Aug 2020
#10
My husband and I are voting in person day of. Masking up, gloved up wither my voter registration
progressive nobody
Aug 2020
#11
Again, in my state, mail in ballots that arrive before the election will be counted first.
LisaL
Aug 2020
#23
So you just made a general statement even though in most states absentee can be tallied before
LisaL
Aug 2020
#33
Yes..I sure did. I made a general statement. And if you don't like it keep scrolling. Nt
helpisontheway
Aug 2020
#45
I am so not concerned about Trumpers accepting Biden having more votes. Just get more electoral
GusFring
Aug 2020
#79
I guess you are still ignoring the fact that in most states mail in ballots won't be counted last.
LisaL
Aug 2020
#87