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In reply to the discussion: Biden's Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump's FiveThirtyEight [View all]qazplm135
(7,447 posts)I stated that the argument that is made by 538 is supported by PA and other states saying they won't be able to count vote by mail.quickly, I did not remotely say PA "said" Trump would have an early lead.
They didn't say good amount they said substantial which can mean half or 60 percent or who freaking knows but it could easily still not be enough to determine who won or that Biden is in the lead on election night.
You know when you have to twist and mangle what has been said to create your point it's a pretty poor point.
Yes, the initial results might show Trump ahead and yes Trump might declare victory. To deny those two possibilities, particularly the second is delusional. The point of laying out WHY those two things don't mean much is to address those who might be afraid of such an outcome that this is likely a temporary result until the blue shift (which is literally the term for this result it happens so often) results in a Biden win.
And the ironic thing is on election night, as this is happening, that's EXACTLY what you are going to be saying. But for whatever reason the idea that this is going to be anything other than a blowout disengages your logic circuits.