IT'S ON!! $20 per EV!! My bet with Dean Chambers of UnSkewedPolls

[Jim Lane]

20. Right - the strategy he imputes to Nate is what he'll do himself.

It's projection (in the psychological not psephological sense).

I think I've read an analysis of past elections that shows (R)asmussen doing the same thing. Their polls are generally more favorable to Republicans, but shortly before the election they move back toward the consensus. Thus, if you assess their accuracy by comparing final pre-election polls to results, they look less biased than they really are.

Also, you might want to nail down with him that the bet depends on the official reported vote in each state (and DC), not on what the electors actually do. A faithless elector, or one innocently fouling up like the John Edwards elector in 2004, shouldn't cost either of you $20.