ERCOT hoping the wind blows this summer in Texas to prevent rolling power outages. [View all]

[NNadir]

This comes from Power, a trade publication for the electric power industry.

Power Magazine 4/30/18 ERCOT Summer Rotating Outages In Texas Still a Possibility.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) on April 30 updated its summer 2018 planning reserve margin to 11% based on resource updates, but it warned that the regional grid serving most of Texas could still suffer rotating outages under extreme conditions.

In its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report for the upcoming summer season, which spans June to September, the grid entity said it expects to have sufficient generation—78,184 MW—to meet a summer peak load forecast of 72,756 MW based on “normal weather conditions.” That forecast, it noted however, is expected to soar 1,600 MW higher than the all-time peak demand record set in August 2016.

The projected reserve margin is below ERCOT’s target of 13.75%. Still, the report presents a more optimistic assessment of ERCOT’s total generation resources than it predicted in its preliminary summer seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) report released in March. The preliminary report projected a higher summer peak load forecast of 72,974 MW, which ERCOT anticipated it would barely meet with a total resource capacity of 77,658 MW...

...The SARA outlines five potential risk scenarios. The first is modeled on extreme weather conditions based on a long heat wave and devastating drought during the summer of 2011, an event that forced the grid operator to cut power to large industrial users to avoid rolling blackouts. An extreme summer forecast could boost summer demand to 75,958 MW, outstripping available generation resources. The other scenarios anticipate maintenance outages, forced outages, and low wind output.

“Since we do have more resources, that risk is probably reduced a little bit. But again, really, the focus for ERCOT is to make sure that we can quickly respond to those situations—and appropriately—to any type of change in system condition,” Warnken said.

ERCOT has been preparing for tight operating reserves owing to a spate of recent plant retirements—including of major coal baseload generators—and delays in some planned resources.

The bold, of course, is mine.

Don't worry; be happy. Unbearably hot days with stagnant air are surely unknown in Texas.

Wind power is cheap, at least if you don't have to pay for replacing all your food because your refrigerator goes down because of a rolling blackout because, um, the wind isn't blowing on a 100F afternoon.

That of course, won't happen, because, well, because it won't.