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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: The Des Moines Register poll is excellent for Sanders -- five key takeaway points [View all]winter is coming
(11,785 posts)2. I thought Selzer was also going to give some estimates for how many
independents and first-time voters would likely turn out. I'm not seeing that?
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The Des Moines Register poll is excellent for Sanders -- five key takeaway points [View all]
Attorney in Texas
Jan 2016
OP
Might want to look up "margin of error." Or not. Either way, we'll have more data Monday night.
Attorney in Texas
Jan 2016
#3
“Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest,”
ProudToBeLiberal
Jan 2016
#6
It is built into her numbers but I don't see where that part of her methodology is published yet
Attorney in Texas
Jan 2016
#4
Thanks. Assuming a typical amount of turnout for first-time caucus goers
winter is coming
Jan 2016
#10
This poll is done exactly right - I accurately projected first time turn out for Obama
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#25
What matters in the polls right now is the youth vote which is strongly favoring
JDPriestly
Jan 2016
#51
If you have ever frozen you ass off working a GOTV effort, then you know how important it is to know
Attorney in Texas
Jan 2016
#19
BS - This last Des Moines Registered is the best for identifying last minute trends.
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#24
Not really. I read that when it snows, it's the young people who don't show up
lunamagica
Jan 2016
#29
I never hope for depressed turnout. You know, on principle, I want people to participate in
Ed Suspicious
Jan 2016
#40
Nope - people in Iowa are very serious about their place in the primary order
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#44
If that is the case, Bernie is in trouble - see Nevada, SC and SEC primary polls
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#45
We'll see how the numbers play out on February 1 and again on February 9. Those results will effect
Attorney in Texas
Feb 2016
#65
A mirage? Anyone with functioning brain cells can see that the corporate media is in the bag for
Skwmom
Feb 2016
#66
Very unlikely to happen - check the poll results for states after Iowa and NH
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#59
I'm just reporting the data underlying the poll - if you don't like it, the fault lies with the DMR
Attorney in Texas
Jan 2016
#63