2016 Postmortem

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)

3. Might want to look up "margin of error." Or not. Either way, we'll have more data Monday night.

Reply to ProudToBeLiberal (Reply #1)

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 08:57 PM

Jan 2016

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The Des Moines Register poll is excellent for Sanders -- five key takeaway points [View all] Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 OP

So much spin...bottom line is that Hillary is up by 3. Nt ProudToBeLiberal Jan 2016 #1

Might want to look up "margin of error." Or not. Either way, we'll have more data Monday night. Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #3

“Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest,” ProudToBeLiberal Jan 2016 #6

hc definitely wins with wealthy democrats...from the link questionseverything Jan 2016 #62

It means "Not the best news for the 'Inevitable' one. NowSam Jan 2016 #9

I've been trying to figure this out. pangaia Jan 2016 #27

Your guess is as good as mine. NowSam Jan 2016 #28

HA !!! pangaia Jan 2016 #34

Post removed Post removed Jan 2016 #21

I thought Selzer was also going to give some estimates for how many winter is coming Jan 2016 #2

It is built into her numbers but I don't see where that part of her methodology is published yet Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #4

Her poll has 34% kcjohn1 Jan 2016 #7

Thanks. Assuming a typical amount of turnout for first-time caucus goers winter is coming Jan 2016 #10

This poll is done exactly right - I accurately projected first time turn out for Obama CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #25

If you're in Texas, I can't stand behind you saltpoint Jan 2016 #5

Trailing is never excellent news KingFlorez Jan 2016 #8

What matters in the polls right now is the youth vote which is strongly favoring JDPriestly Jan 2016 #51

None of this matters Depaysement Jan 2016 #11

If you have ever frozen you ass off working a GOTV effort, then you know how important it is to know Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #19

Yes I get that Depaysement Jan 2016 #20

So true. And Sanders' supporters are heroes. JDPriestly Jan 2016 #52

Did anyone expect Bernie to get this close 6 months ago? benny05 Jan 2016 #12

I remember wishing he'd turn Dem and run for president. Gregorian Jan 2016 #16

This is good for Bernie. At least his supporters will turn out now, thereismore Jan 2016 #13

Put a little dynamics on it, and it's a different animal. Gregorian Jan 2016 #14

BS - This last Des Moines Registered is the best for identifying last minute trends. CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #24

Gee, what a nice thing to say. senz Jan 2016 #55

I'm dizzy from the spin workinclasszero Jan 2016 #15

+1 NurseJackie Jan 2016 #22

She was supposed to be in the lead by, what, 20 points or so? pangaia Jan 2016 #33

If she wins the caucus by one vote workinclasszero Jan 2016 #36

What an absurd statement. He is ahead by about 15 points in NH. JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #41

No kidding workinclasszero Jan 2016 #42

Then why would 1 delegate more for Clinton in Iowa doom his campaign? JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #43

BULL. If Hillary doesn't win by 10%, it's a LOSS for her. John Poet Jan 2016 #60

It also understated her results by 4 dsc Jan 2016 #17

Good data to consider. nt retrowire Jan 2016 #18

None of that makes a bit of difference CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #23

Spin & Silver Linings.... andrewv1 Jan 2016 #30

Don't try to change the subject CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #38

Well said, You made a good point.... andrewv1 Jan 2016 #50

there's also the variable of the weather thesquanderer Jan 2016 #26

Not really. I read that when it snows, it's the young people who don't show up lunamagica Jan 2016 #29

Could be. I was thinking of this thread... thesquanderer Jan 2016 #31

It sounds reasonable that bad weather would stop older people lunamagica Jan 2016 #35

Who are the least dependable voters CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #39

I never hope for depressed turnout. You know, on principle, I want people to participate in Ed Suspicious Jan 2016 #40

I agree. potone Jan 2016 #48

I think it's important to recognize the enthusiasm gap Trajan Jan 2016 #32

Nope - people in Iowa are very serious about their place in the primary order CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #44

The speculation is over, the best guesses submitted. Half-Century Man Jan 2016 #37

If that is the case, Bernie is in trouble - see Nevada, SC and SEC primary polls CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #45

We'll see how the numbers play out on February 1 and again on February 9. Those results will effect Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #65

The Judean People's Front. nt tblue37 Jan 2016 #47

fucking splitters Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #64

What seems reasonable november3rd Jan 2016 #46

You say.... FrenchieCat Jan 2016 #49

The media is attacking Bernie relentlessly while promoting Clinton. Skwmom Jan 2016 #56

A mirage? Anyone with functioning brain cells can see that the corporate media is in the bag for Skwmom Feb 2016 #66

Very unlikely to happen - check the poll results for states after Iowa and NH CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #59

She does not start with 332. Kentonio Jan 2016 #61

In summary Lithos Jan 2016 #53

On November 2, 1976 in my psych class at my SheilaT Jan 2016 #57

thanks for the analysis grasswire Jan 2016 #54

Your Analysis is terribly flawed CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #58

I'm just reporting the data underlying the poll - if you don't like it, the fault lies with the DMR Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #63