2016 Postmortem

CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)

44. Nope - people in Iowa are very serious about their place in the primary order

Sat Jan 30, 2016, 11:41 PM

Jan 2016

Last edited Sun Jan 31, 2016, 03:33 AM - Edit history (1)

The the people who are regular caucusgoers attend their caucuses come hell or high water every 4 years. Remember that Hillary has a great ground game in Iowa - if someone wants a ride to and from a caucus site, they just need to make a call.

In addition, those who tell pollsters that they are going to caucus for the first time, are the least dependable voters.

In addition, if college students caucus in their college towns, they will concentrate the Sanders vote resulting in fewer delegates.

But this is a great poll that is well known for taking into consideration a surge of new caucusgoers (like when it predicted and unexpected Obama victory in 2008 for that reason), so all of the above is all ready accounted for in this poll.

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The Des Moines Register poll is excellent for Sanders -- five key takeaway points [View all] Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 OP

So much spin...bottom line is that Hillary is up by 3. Nt ProudToBeLiberal Jan 2016 #1

Might want to look up "margin of error." Or not. Either way, we'll have more data Monday night. Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #3

“Most of the ways you look at it, she’s stronger than the three-point race would suggest,” ProudToBeLiberal Jan 2016 #6

hc definitely wins with wealthy democrats...from the link questionseverything Jan 2016 #62

It means "Not the best news for the 'Inevitable' one. NowSam Jan 2016 #9

I've been trying to figure this out. pangaia Jan 2016 #27

Your guess is as good as mine. NowSam Jan 2016 #28

HA !!! pangaia Jan 2016 #34

Post removed Post removed Jan 2016 #21

I thought Selzer was also going to give some estimates for how many winter is coming Jan 2016 #2

It is built into her numbers but I don't see where that part of her methodology is published yet Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #4

Her poll has 34% kcjohn1 Jan 2016 #7

Thanks. Assuming a typical amount of turnout for first-time caucus goers winter is coming Jan 2016 #10

This poll is done exactly right - I accurately projected first time turn out for Obama CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #25

If you're in Texas, I can't stand behind you saltpoint Jan 2016 #5

Trailing is never excellent news KingFlorez Jan 2016 #8

What matters in the polls right now is the youth vote which is strongly favoring JDPriestly Jan 2016 #51

None of this matters Depaysement Jan 2016 #11

If you have ever frozen you ass off working a GOTV effort, then you know how important it is to know Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #19

Yes I get that Depaysement Jan 2016 #20

So true. And Sanders' supporters are heroes. JDPriestly Jan 2016 #52

Did anyone expect Bernie to get this close 6 months ago? benny05 Jan 2016 #12

I remember wishing he'd turn Dem and run for president. Gregorian Jan 2016 #16

This is good for Bernie. At least his supporters will turn out now, thereismore Jan 2016 #13

Put a little dynamics on it, and it's a different animal. Gregorian Jan 2016 #14

BS - This last Des Moines Registered is the best for identifying last minute trends. CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #24

Gee, what a nice thing to say. senz Jan 2016 #55

I'm dizzy from the spin workinclasszero Jan 2016 #15

+1 NurseJackie Jan 2016 #22

She was supposed to be in the lead by, what, 20 points or so? pangaia Jan 2016 #33

If she wins the caucus by one vote workinclasszero Jan 2016 #36

What an absurd statement. He is ahead by about 15 points in NH. JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #41

No kidding workinclasszero Jan 2016 #42

Then why would 1 delegate more for Clinton in Iowa doom his campaign? JonLeibowitz Jan 2016 #43

BULL. If Hillary doesn't win by 10%, it's a LOSS for her. John Poet Jan 2016 #60

It also understated her results by 4 dsc Jan 2016 #17

Good data to consider. nt retrowire Jan 2016 #18

None of that makes a bit of difference CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #23

Spin & Silver Linings.... andrewv1 Jan 2016 #30

Don't try to change the subject CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #38

Well said, You made a good point.... andrewv1 Jan 2016 #50

there's also the variable of the weather thesquanderer Jan 2016 #26

Not really. I read that when it snows, it's the young people who don't show up lunamagica Jan 2016 #29

Could be. I was thinking of this thread... thesquanderer Jan 2016 #31

It sounds reasonable that bad weather would stop older people lunamagica Jan 2016 #35

Who are the least dependable voters CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #39

I never hope for depressed turnout. You know, on principle, I want people to participate in Ed Suspicious Jan 2016 #40

I agree. potone Jan 2016 #48

I think it's important to recognize the enthusiasm gap Trajan Jan 2016 #32

Nope - people in Iowa are very serious about their place in the primary order CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #44

The speculation is over, the best guesses submitted. Half-Century Man Jan 2016 #37

If that is the case, Bernie is in trouble - see Nevada, SC and SEC primary polls CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #45

We'll see how the numbers play out on February 1 and again on February 9. Those results will effect Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #65

The Judean People's Front. nt tblue37 Jan 2016 #47

fucking splitters Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #64

What seems reasonable november3rd Jan 2016 #46

You say.... FrenchieCat Jan 2016 #49

The media is attacking Bernie relentlessly while promoting Clinton. Skwmom Jan 2016 #56

A mirage? Anyone with functioning brain cells can see that the corporate media is in the bag for Skwmom Feb 2016 #66

Very unlikely to happen - check the poll results for states after Iowa and NH CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #59

She does not start with 332. Kentonio Jan 2016 #61

In summary Lithos Jan 2016 #53

On November 2, 1976 in my psych class at my SheilaT Jan 2016 #57

thanks for the analysis grasswire Jan 2016 #54

Your Analysis is terribly flawed CajunBlazer Jan 2016 #58

I'm just reporting the data underlying the poll - if you don't like it, the fault lies with the DMR Attorney in Texas Jan 2016 #63