Bernie's advantages from here on out [View all]

[Chichiri]

Last edited Wed Mar 2, 2016, 08:02 PM - Edit history (1)

We know that most of the states going forward from here on out give a demographic advantage to Bernie. But what's more: we can quantify that advantage. That is, we can look at the demographics and other factors, and we can see not just whether Hillary or Bernie will win, but how much they will win by.

For example, Hillary had a 4-delegate advantage in Arkansas; that is, if the national vote is tied, we would expect Hillary to take 18 of the 32 delegates from that state, to Bernie's 14. (Hillary actually took 22.)

Another example: Hillary's massive advantage in Texas amounted to an expected 30 delegate lead; she was expected to take 126 delegates, to Bernie's 96. (She actually took 139 or more; the delegate count isn't finished yet.)

In short, while the states thus far have advantaged Hillary more than they have Bernie, that advantage works out to 37 delegates; that is, if the national vote is tied, Hillary should be 37 delegates ahead of Bernie; this is what we would expect from an American population split evenly between Bernie and Hillary.

As of this writing, Hillary is 197 delegates ahead.

In the 35 states and few odd territories to come, Bernie needs to exceed, not Hillary's numbers, but his own target numbers by an average of over 5 delegates each. In those places where he fails to meet that benchmark (and it's actually mathematically impossible for him to do so in a few of the territories), he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

In fact, there are seven states -- Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Delaware, New Jersey -- and one territory, DC, which are demographically skewed toward Hillary, but that Bernie nevertheless needs to win. Again, if he loses, he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

Here's a breakdown by state. The first number is the number of delegates in each state, the second is Bernie's target number based on demographics, the third is the number Bernie actually needs to take the nomination, and the fourth is the percentage of the total number of delegates he needs from that state. The blue-shaded states are demographically advantaged for Hillary, the green states for Bernie. The greater the percentage Bernie needs from each state, the deeper the red in the fourth column.