White Lives Electorally Matter!!! [View all]
I think people need to understand that, electorally, this is still a country that is dominated by White voters (much to my chagrin, because they tend to vote Republican). But with all the talk lately about the Black vote in South Carolina and elsewhere we have lost sight there is a bigger prize here and that is the White House and the path to it goes right through lily white picket fences, across farm fields, and down the street to suburban cul-de-sac(s).
Before you say "but the Democratic base is Black" please understand that even the Democratic Party was comprised of more white votes than any other single demographic in 2012 (this was Obama's re-election year, mind you). The good thing is, all those progressive White supremacist hippy dairy farmers from Vermont were able to pull off their white sheets and douse their burning crosses to vote for Obama just in the nick of time!!!
Look at 2012's electoral demographics at this link. Go ahead. I double dare you.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html
What you will find is that in 2012 there were 79,000,000 white votes up for grabs. Aside that, there were 17,000,000 Black, 15,000,000 Hispanic, and 7,000,000 Asian votes. Altogether, the PoC vote did not equal the white vote and probably won't for a decade or two, maybe more (anyone have the projection on that?).
And what do we know about Clinton if we are honest with ourselves? Say it, class....she seems to have a White problem.
Nearly half of White Democratic voters in the Democratic Party don't really like her enough to vote for her (i.e. the folks that nominated Obama and the folks now supporting Sanders) and it seems most Independent Whites don't either. Then there's the Republican White vote...which I think is safe to say they really don't like her. In other words, "White voters just really aren't all that into you, Hillary".
The other thing is, a lot of White voters are pissed off these days. Call it White Privilege if you want but a lot of people have seen a decline or stagnation in their prosperity over the past few decades. Yes, it is mostly due to right wing policy (started by Reagan) but it has been aided and abetted by the Democratic Party as well (consider that we have had a Democratic President for 16 of the past 24 years as food for thought).
Outside of this stagnation, there is a real decline in life expectancy for Whites as of late. This is actually a shocking statistic. When you look at the reasons why, some of it can be linked back to declining prosperity and muted hope (alcoholism is part of that statistic). Some may say, "welcome to our neighborhood" which probably has some karmic poetry to it, but I don't think "a sinking tide lowering all boats" is a good political or societal goal.
The leaf has turned within the Republican Party and it is a seismic event that Trump is leading that race. We can sit back and laugh (or cry) but it is a symptom of something that is deep and cannot be laughed off. I seriously doubt we are 1930's Germany but it is scary when a guy rises to power using racial minorities as scapegoats and political punching bags.
The leaf is at least fluttering near sideways in the Democratic Party. The powers that be may vanquish the Sanders insurgency after all, but did anyone really predict "Mr. 3% Socialist Shouty Fringe Candidate" was going to give the Clintons a run for their money? If things get worse or at the very least fail to get better, continuing "Obama's Legacy" won't be good enough next time.
So, if what I say above has a grain of truth to it, be braced for a few things. Number one, believe it or not, Trump might win. Go to that website I linked and play with their electoral calculator. Adjust the numbers for the white vote a bit. It won't take much in terms of percentage change or turnout change to turn the electoral college Republican Red. The same cannot be said for the Black, Hispanic, or Asian subgroups. Number two, there is a very strong anti-establishment mood among working class / middle class whites. That latter point should go without saying but I literally had a Clinton supporter here say to me that she was not aware of this anti-Establishment vein. I was gobsmacked to say the least. Given that Clinton really is "the machine" and Trump is not, this is not a good thing for Democrats. The third thing is the Republicans are out of power, they are like Rocky after he gets beat in the first half of the movie: they are hungry, working out in the sweaty gym with bare walls, and chasing chickens to get back into power (just look at the last 2 midterms as an example of that). In other words, we may see a huge turnout of Republicans. If you think they are gonna sit on their hands because Trump is nasty, I seriously doubt it. Do you honestly believe they will fall on their sword for the good of the country when the Supreme Court is on the line?
But the above paragraph does not mean "pivot to the right" or "go to the center" or "act like Republicans to win"
Repeat....
The above paragraph does not mean "pivot to the right" or "go to the center" or "act like Republicans to win"
What it does mean though, is the value of understanding what the white electorate is so damn pissed off about. Many feel betrayed and abandoned by our institutions on the "Left" (I put that in quotes because our Democratic heads barely act "Left" when money, guns, and blood is on the line) and on the Right.
The reason they feel betrayed it is because they have been. Their prosperity was outsourced to the lowest bidder.
My older siblings can fondly remember when a high school education and blue collar job could get you a good lifestyle (i.e. before the Reagan Revolution). Now it is not uncommon to have college grads who can't afford to not go back and live with their parents. And those are the young adults that were lucky enough to be able to get a college education. The ones who couldn't are struggling going from one poor paying job to another.
My solution is to STOP BETRAYING THEM. Why this is so hard to do, I don't know, but I think campaign contributions have something to do with it. I wouldn't be surprised if large sums of money exchanged for "giving speeches" may also have something to do with it as well. Just a hunch.
My point of this post is not to denigrate or diminish the electoral value of the African Americans, Latinos, Asians or anyone else. I congratulate Hillary Clinton on winning and keeping the affection of the majority of people of color and especially of blacks. I am sure in some ways she has earned it, despite her obvious periods of time when she chose political expediency over what was right at the time. I am also certain the the Democratic Party would not be what it is today without those votes and their interests.
However, I think in our hubris of dissecting the path to the nomination we have lost sight of some current electoral realities which can result in some pretty serious ill effects if we are not careful. If the triumphant tone of those who may likely be on the "winning side" of the nomination think they can thumb their noses at "white states that don't matter" and act as if the Black Vote + Latino Vote alone can carry this party to victory in November then they are sadly mistaken. Math matters.
On the other hand, I guess Hillary Clinton can be thankful for low gas prices right now or all hell might have broke out (even more than it has) on the Left as well.
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