2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Trending Sanders: YouGov Illinois poll +2%; PPP Missouri poll +1%; Baldwin University Ohio poll +1%! [View all]Jarqui
(10,125 posts)You might see a big swing from something really bad happening to candidate (sex scandal, some sort of a charge or serious allegation, etc). But to my knowledge, that hasn't happened here. Hillary got called out on a few of her lies .... but she's been lying her head off for years so that to me, isn't exactly news.
A week ago, we were looking a major deficits for Sanders in all but one of these states (roughly 20-40 pts) and we had no recent poll for Missouri (-28% last August). Now, it looks like just Florida and North Carolina but even there, the deficit has been reduced.
In a week, he's reduced the gap more than 100 delegates of the projected difference from the poll average. To do that over five states in that short of a period of time is Michigan-like if it holds.
I'm a little cautiously stunned - kind of find it hard to believe what I'm seeing in poll after poll but because of Michigan and poll after poll, it's hard to ignore.
If Sanders pulls this off tomorrow, the chances of him winning the primary will significantly improve.
This could be getting a little wild.