Before the "poll panic" sets in, might we have a word? [View all]

[MarianJack]

Please do not misinterpret the meaning of the next few paragraphs. While I firmly believe that President Obama is going to improve upon both his popular and electoral vote margins of 2008, I also know that the worst thing that can happen in a campaign is complacency. For proof of this, just ask "President Dewey".

Many recent polls have shown bain romney gaining on President Obama, even if we discount the faux "news" poll that must have been conducted in RNC headquarters. I know that as sure as I have grey hair and an ass that's WAY too big, many DUers will use this as an opportunity to go into quick panic mode and follow up with predictions that the sky is falling and of our impending doom.

First however, let's have a brief history lesson of polling in every non-stolen election since 1972, when I was 17 on election day and had busted the aforementioned way too big ass trying to get George McGovern elected president of the United States. If I am a point or 2 off, or mention the wrong month, it is a small fault of memory, not any attempt to make up history to prove a false point. I'll leave that to the republicans.

In April of 1972, I saw a Harris poll that showed George McGovern within 6 points of richard nixon and closing. In November he lost a 49 state landslide. This is the only election in my memory where the opposing candidate got the bounce from a convention.

In 1976, Jimmy Cater emerged from the Democratic convention with a 33 point lead. Around Labor Day, the lead was 15. Carter won by about 3% and didn't carry one state in the west.

In 1980 polling showed a very close Carter/reagan race just a couple of weeks before the election. reagan won with a 10 point popular vote margin and carried about 45 states. Many Democrats believe that Carter conceded so early (around 8:30PM EDT) so he could get off of the stage before the public realized the size of his defeat. Many Democrats also believe that that early concession also inspired Democratic voters to stay home, costing them the Senate and increasing our losses in the House.

In 1984, Mondale/Ferraro emerged from the convention very close to reagan/bush, even leading by 2 points in one poll (I think Harris). Mondale Ferraro lost in a 49 state landslide.

In 1988, Michael Dukakis led by 17 after the Democratic convention and by 12 when the republican convention opened. He lost by about 8% and bush sr. got 400+ electoral votes after a very dirty bush campaign and a very inept Dukakis campaign.

In 1992, there was early speculation that Bill Clinton would come in 3rd. He won by 5+% and 370 electoral votes.

In 1996, a poll that showed bob dole within 6 points of Bill Clinton had some horse's patoots in the media speculating about a "downward spiral" for Clinton. Clinton improved upon both his 1992 popular and electoral vote margins in a race that was never really in doubt. This is actually the election that I believe 2012 will most resemble.

In 2008, mcsame/palin(comparison) emerged from their convention with a small lead that lasted well into September. President Obama won by about 7% in the popular vote and won 365 electoral votes.

My point in writing this is that polls this early, and maybe well into October, mean NOTHING! Let's bust our humps to get this President re-elected, but let's not get our shorts in a wad.

Can you think of ANY non-combat or life threatened decision or action of yours that was done in a state of panic that was actually a good one?

This was just my 2 cents, and quite possibly overpriced at that!

PEACE!