Bernie Sanders Allows He'd Lose The Democratic Primary If Held Today

[CoffeeCat]

59. Sanders is following the same Iowa trajectory as Obama...

No one said that Sanders was Obama. But if you look at 2008, and what happened--we're seeing the exact same dynamics play out.

--Sanders and Obama were both polling at 4 percent in the spring that preceded the Iowa caucuses.

--Both Sanders and Obama are polling 8-14 points behind Hillary during the October before the Iowa caucuses (depending which poll you look at).

--Hillary Clinton was leading in ALL national polls, and ALL state polls against Obama--during this time in the 08 Dem primary process.

The dynamics of Iowa are 2008 vs 2016 are nearly identical. Support for Hillary is soft in Iowa. Voters are looking for any reason to vote for someone else, because she just simply doesn't play well here. The results of the 08 caucuses (Clinton 3rd place) validate this. Sander's 35 percent support in Iowa--when his campaign is barely off the ground around here, is also proof of strong and growing support here that could blossom into a win.

That is why she came in third in Iowa. When there are viable alternatives--especially attractive candidates on the left--there's trouble for her in Iowa.

Anything could happen in Iowa. It did it 08, why not 2015?


These factors are also important:

Bernie has the advantage, even though Clinton is ahead in the Iowa polls because Hillary has peaked and Sanders hasn't. He is still introducing himself to people.

Sanders was attracting very large Iowa crowds and he has since backed off. I imagine he's waiting to go full throttle with campaign events later in the campaign. The trick to winning the Iowa caucuses is peaking at the perfect time. When he fills indoor venues (in December/Jan) with 10,000+ people--something Hillary will be unable to do, the optics will harm her and really punch a hole in her "inevitability."

This is exactly what happened with Obama, in 2008. I saw all of this up close and personal, in 2008. I'm seeing the same situation repeat again.

Ground games are also important as well. I would say Sanders has the advantage people ground games are always fueled by young people. Obama's ground game in 2008 was unprecedented. Hillary's was incredibly weak. I had Obama supporters at my door weekly. I saw one Hillary supporter the entire caucus season. Younger supporters translates into more bodies willing and able to brave Iowa winters and canvas door-to-door.

You also have to remember that when Iowa caucus goers show up to caucus, if a candidate does not have a threshold percentage of support--those supporters have to join another candidate camp or sit it out. This happened with Richardson in 08. This could happen in a large percentage of Iowa's 1,600+ precincts. If he continues to poll around 5-6 percent, most precincts will see O'Malley joining another candidate camp. The bulk of those O'Malley supporters will go to Sanders. O'Malley supporters are again, looking for an alternative to Clinton, and most likely someone to the left of her. This could give Sanders another bump (2-3 percent, possibly).

This gives Sanders a real advantage in the numbers that won't show up until caucus evening. We'll just have to wait and see what happens to O'Malley's numbers.

There are no absolutes. I don't have a crystal ball. Nor am I suggesting that Sanders is Obama.

However, it is undeniable that the polls, the psychology of the Iowa electorate, Iowa Clinton fatigue (and this is her second time campaigning in Iowa, so it's worse this year) the upcoming optics of the Sanders campaign the remaining time he has to convince voters---could easily swing this race to Sanders.

Iowa is certainly not the most important state. However, it is the first to vote and if Sanders wins (and I definitely think he will, based on what I've witnessed and experienced during 4 caucus cycles) Clinton's inevitability goes out the window (just like it did in 08) and we've got a tight primary Democratic battle on our hands--just like in 08.

And we all know how that ended.