2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Sanders 49%-Cruz 39% vs. Clinton 47%-Cruz 42% / Sanders 47%-Carson 41% vs. Clinton 46%-Cruz 43% / [View all]Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)has a very significant impact on the results of the subsequent 48 states.
The safest prediction about Super Tuesday, for example, is the prediction that the primary results it will NOT look much like the current polling.
If Clinton wins Iowa and New Hampshire, she'll likely do better on Super Tuesday than her current poling indicates, and she may well run the table (with the exception of a few "voters' remorse" primaries where the voters go against the presumptive nominee because that commonly happens).
If Sanders wins Iowa or New Hampshire, that does not foretell that he will win South Carolina or Nevada or on Super Tuesday, but he will probably do better than his current polling indicates and the polling and presumptions formed before the Iowa and New Hampshire results will not longer be reliable.
This process is not a mystery. It happens just about every four year.