2016 Postmortem

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts) Tue Dec 15, 2015, 08:16 PM Dec 2015

In 2008, Clinton was at 29.4%, Obama was at 27.7%, Edwards was at 25.5% the NIGHT BEFORE the caucus [View all]

The very next day, Obama won with 10% more of the vote than the polling forecast just THE NIGHT BEFORE.

Edwards came in second with 4% more support than forecast just THE NIGHT BEFORE.

Clinton came in THIRD place, two spots below where her supporters said she would finish (and it was not even particularly close between Obama and Clinton).

A race where the candidates are within 10% THE NIGHT BEFORE the caucus is a tight race.

A race where the candidates are within 10% SIX WEEKS BEFORE the caucus is an extremely tight race.

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In 2008, Clinton was at 29.4%, Obama was at 27.7%, Edwards was at 25.5% the NIGHT BEFORE the caucus [View all] Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP

Obama won because his supporters were more enthusiastic, more persuasive. reformist2 Dec 2015 #1

If it comes to enthusiasm, Sanders supporters have plenty and Clinton, well, not so much according Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #2

Please stop comparing these two races it's apples to lemons FloridaBlues Dec 2015 #4

One of the contenders is the old-guard party choice, the other is an unknown liberal senator.... reformist2 Dec 2015 #7

It was different in that Clinton was a much better liked and more widely trusted candidate in 2008 Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #19

It not just enthusiasm. Organization is important. JVS Dec 2015 #28

The 2008 Iowa victory was more meaningful for Obama due to demographics Gothmog Dec 2015 #3

I see no reason why voters of color will stick with Hillary. They owe her nothing. reformist2 Dec 2015 #8

"They" would disagree with you. misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #11

Half of them don't even know who Bernie is yet. I'm confident he will win them over. reformist2 Dec 2015 #12

Yet? Well he's been out there for about 9 months. misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #13

And yet there has been no movement in the polls supporting your belief Gothmog Dec 2015 #15

It could help Bernie more than Obama jfern Dec 2015 #21

This is fair but I think the scenario relies on how Clinton's campaign reacts. joshcryer Dec 2015 #23

I am volunteering with the Victory Counsel program Gothmog Dec 2015 #24

Obama also had the financial reaources to pay for a ground game... brooklynite Dec 2015 #5

Nobody needs to "send" Bernie supports anywhere... they will show up in droves on their own! reformist2 Dec 2015 #9

15% Threshold... AngryParakeet Dec 2015 #6

Irrelevant in 2016. No Obama nor Edwards. misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #10

You are using facts Gothmog Dec 2015 #25

He was +7 in the final DMR poll BeyondGeography Dec 2015 #14

Obama wasn't leading the DMR poll 6 weeks before the caucus. Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #17

Wha? BeyondGeography Dec 2015 #36

... SidDithers Dec 2015 #16

and she still ended up winning New Hampshire JI7 Dec 2015 #18

New Hampshire? Didn't she win the nomination and go on to beat McCain in the general election? Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #20

Most important information here: Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #22

The caucus system makes Iowa a little bit unpredictable Renew Deal Dec 2015 #26

Horse trading. Ed Suspicious Dec 2015 #29

Fixed. Thanks Renew Deal Dec 2015 #31

It happens. Ed Suspicious Dec 2015 #32

One more time...... workinclasszero Dec 2015 #27

Thankfully "that guy" will NEVER be called to negotiate, as US President misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #33

Did Sanders ever give the keynote speech at the DNC? Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #30

INTERNET SUPPORTERS will be voting and there's MILLIONS of us. in_cog_ni_to Dec 2015 #34

All within margin of error. JaneyVee Dec 2015 #35

This primary republicans will vote in their own primary because they have a giant Trump problem Sunlei Dec 2015 #37

On Pre going to the polls Polls Tom Rinaldo Dec 2015 #38