Look at Ohio!!

[sofa king]

5. South Dakota could be a sleeper, too.

When the vote is more-or-less evenly split in South Dakota--and it's starting to head that way--the deciders are the Indian tribes, whose members have a traditionally very low turnout except when it counts, and then GOTV efforts can double turnout on reservations.

It is a logistic problem for the tribes, at least as much as one of cynical lack of enthusiasm, as the reservations in SD are huge, with bad roads and very limited transportation options to the few polling centers. They may hate Republicans more than the rest of us here do, but they can't really afford to go out and vote unless Democrats dump inordinate expense into organizing a way for tribal members to get to the polls.

President Obama has approached Indian Affairs with a level of understanding far beyond that of all Republican Presidents and most Democratic ones as well, so his card trades high among tribal members these days. Giving some much-needed attention to SD would also be an excellent opportunity to create a logistic framework on reservations, which will pay off in the upcoming Senate elections there in 2014 and 2016.