curious stats in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts [View all]

[stellanoir]

MA Primary: Unadjusted Exit poll Indicates Bernie won

02
MAR
MA Primary: Another Stolen Election


Mar.2, 2016

Just like the MA 2014 Governor race, the primary was likely stolen.
The exit poll, AS ALWAYS, was adjusted to match the recorded vote

Clinton won the RECORDED (bogus) vote (1406 respondents) by 50.3-48.7%
In the exit poll of 1297 respondents, Sanders led at 8:01 pm by 52.3-45.7%

But how could Clinton gain 114 respondents and Sanders just 7 among the final 109?

This is 2004 all over again. Kerry led by 51-48% after the first 13047 respondents, but Bush by 50.8-48.3% at 13660 respondents. When the unadjusted exit poll became available years later, we found that Kerry won the 13660 respondents 51.7-47.0%.

The probability that Sanders won: 99% (given the 2.72% Margin of Error)
Win prob= 99.2% = normdist (.534,.5, Moe/1.96,true)

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/03/02/ma-primary-unadjusted-exit-poll-indicates-bernie-won/

~TIA