Which states do you think your favorite will pick up? Why?

[Awsi Dooger]

5. The logical pick up order has to look something like this

I'll use the liberal/conservative breakdown, which is easily the most revealing and instructive and predictive. I'll be frank and say I don't respect subjectivity that attempts to adjust or deny these numbers in favor of a fanciful version. I watched adjusters lose for 24 years in Las Vegas.

Keep in mind the nation was 35% conservatives and 26% liberals in 2016, for a 9% gap. Likewise the gap was 9% in 2018, as in 36% conservatives and 27% liberals. The percentage of liberals will continue to climb as the older Silent Generation reaches mortality, but it is true that our liberal numbers are inefficiently distributed...i.e. the 37% liberals in California and 35% in New York.

* Pennsylvania -- 33% conservatives 27% liberals for a 6% gap. Since I have followed political math beginning in 1992, Pennsylvania 2016 is the only state that has ever voted red despite an ideological gap lower than the nation itself. I did not believe that was possible. I am not a cynic but if anything seems strange it is Pennsylvania 2016.

* Wisconsin -- 34% conservatives 25% liberals for a 9% gap

* Michigan -- 36% conservatives 27% liberals for a 9% gap

* Florida -- 36% conservatives 25% liberals for an 11% gap

* Arizona -- 41% conservatives 27% liberals for a 14% gap (Note: the Arizona exit poll long reported 40% conservatives then changed to 41%. A friend pointed that out to me as I was continuing to reference the 40%. Changes to fit the actual electorate are normal but that was the most tardy adjustment I have ever seen. It does make sense, however)

* Indiana -- 38% conservatives 22% liberals for a 16% gap

* Iowa -- 40% conservatives 23% liberals for a 17% gap

* Ohio -- 39% conservatives 20% liberals for a 19% gap (Note: Ohio is more of a fraud and lost cause than these numbers reveal. Too many whites and not enough Hispanics or Asians for a logical return. Same is true in Iowa to lesser extent. Likewise Indiana, where self-identified moderates tend to be considerably more right leaning than the national norm)

* North Carolina -- 43% conservatives 22% liberals for a 21% gap (Note: you can see how idiotic it was for Hillary to be emphasizing states with a 20+% no-chance gap while ignoring states that were smack on the national tipping point of 9%)

* Georgia -- 42% conservatives 22% liberals for a 20% gap

* Texas -- 44% conservatives 20% liberals for a 24% gap (Note: Beto and emphasis cut this gap to 43-22 in 2018. Still, as you can see from the numbers Texas is still very far away from legitimate swing state. Nancy Pelosi is indeed a world class moron if she is dense enough to believe that everything flows through Texas in 2020)

* Major Note: a state like Nevada at 36% conservatives and 25% liberals cannot be taken for granted. Note that it is actually outside the national gap at 11% compared to 9%. Recently we have really fortified the Clark County turnout machine, and we also are receiving unusually high support from self-identified moderates. Nevada conservatives are less loyal to Republicans than other states. It is quite comical that Nevada is now considered a cinch and Florida a lost cause, despite both states reporting that 11% gap. I have lived in both states recently and sophistication/emphasis in all the difference. I have reported many times that Democrats dominate voter outreach in Nevada while Republicans do the same in Florida.

* Virginia at 33% conservatives and 26% liberals for a 7% gap is also not exactly a sure thing, despite the positive demographic trend and recent results. We can't afford to take Virginia for granted like Michigan/Wisconsin 2016. Colorado is in the same boat at 35% conservatives and 28% liberals for a 7% gap.

* The states we assume as safe are actually fairly close to the national number. Minnesota is 32% conservatives and 28% liberals for a 4% gap. Likewise New Hampshire at 31% conservatives and 27% liberals for a 4% gap.