Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: The Democratic field is crowded with C-listers. It's time for some to drop out [View all]ehrnst
(32,640 posts)43. Actually, no. Exit polling indicated that HRC supporters went 84% to Obama, 15% to McCain.
https://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/exit.polls/
https://medium.com/jriddle/the-12-bernie-to-trump-figure-and-24-clinton-to-mccain-figure-comes-from-brian-schaffner-of-the-9905971c9f45
In general, 710% of self-identified Democrats will vote for the Republican candidate and vice-versa thats the usual level of crossover voting in a modern presidential election.
The 12% Bernie-to-Trump figure (and 24% Clinton-to-McCain figure)[see note below] comes from Brian Schaffner of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst who based it on extrapolations from the data in the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. Shaffner limited his examination only to those voters whose participation in both the primary and general could be validated. Theoretically, the idea is to weed out people who said they voted in one or other but didnt. In practice, it cripples the headline conclusions at the end of it. Problem #1: That approach entirely excludes caucus states. Guess who did disproportionately well there? Problem #2: It entirely excludes voters in states where validation info wasnt readily available. Short version: A large chunk of the U.S. is entirely unrepresented in his figures.
The 12% Bernie-to-Trump figure (and 24% Clinton-to-McCain figure)[see note below] comes from Brian Schaffner of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst who based it on extrapolations from the data in the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. Shaffner limited his examination only to those voters whose participation in both the primary and general could be validated. Theoretically, the idea is to weed out people who said they voted in one or other but didnt. In practice, it cripples the headline conclusions at the end of it. Problem #1: That approach entirely excludes caucus states. Guess who did disproportionately well there? Problem #2: It entirely excludes voters in states where validation info wasnt readily available. Short version: A large chunk of the U.S. is entirely unrepresented in his figures.
https://medium.com/jriddle/the-12-bernie-to-trump-figure-and-24-clinton-to-mccain-figure-comes-from-brian-schaffner-of-the-9905971c9f45
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
45 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
The Democratic field is crowded with C-listers. It's time for some to drop out [View all]
Soph0571
Jul 2019
OP
Yes, some campaigns will soon be suspended. Qualifying for the 3rd debate is tougher.
brush
Jul 2019
#9
Bernie may or may not win the primary, but I give him credit for repeatedly
DemocracyMouse
Jul 2019
#18
If debate teams were running for public office, a wise coach would teach them about style.
ehrnst
Jul 2019
#24
I agree. I don't think we older people understand and see the anger at the current
Autumn
Jul 2019
#39
Huh? Just the young? There are MILLIONS of older people who are fucked right now.
DemocracyMouse
Jul 2019
#42
which again is fewer than the 25% of Clinton voters who went for McCain
Spider Jerusalem
Jul 2019
#36
Actually, no. Exit polling indicated that HRC supporters went 84% to Obama, 15% to McCain.
ehrnst
Aug 2019
#43
Bernie is well to the left of most of these candidates and has more name recognition
IronLionZion
Jul 2019
#14
But will he drop out if someone else passes the threshold of 2,026 pledged delegates? (nt)
ehrnst
Jul 2019
#20
I totally agree. This crowded primary season may cost us so much we lose the general.
redstatebluegirl
Jul 2019
#38