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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Response to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #25)

Thu Aug 1, 2019, 08:30 AM

43. Actually, no. Exit polling indicated that HRC supporters went 84% to Obama, 15% to McCain.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/04/exit.polls/

In general, 7Ė10% of self-identified Democrats will vote for the Republican candidate and vice-versa ó thatís the usual level of crossover voting in a modern presidential election.

The 12% Bernie-to-Trump figure (and 24% Clinton-to-McCain figure)[see note below] comes from Brian Schaffner of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst who based it on extrapolations from the data in the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. Shaffner limited his examination only to those voters whose participation in both the primary and general could be validated. Theoretically, the idea is to weed out people who said they voted in one or other but didnít. In practice, it cripples the headline conclusions at the end of it. Problem #1: That approach entirely excludes caucus states. Guess who did disproportionately well there? Problem #2: It entirely excludes voters in states where validation info wasnít readily available. Short version: A large chunk of the U.S. is entirely unrepresented in his figures.


https://medium.com/jriddle/the-12-bernie-to-trump-figure-and-24-clinton-to-mccain-figure-comes-from-brian-schaffner-of-the-9905971c9f45
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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LineLineLineLineLineLineNew Reply Actually, no. Exit polling indicated that HRC supporters went 84% to Obama, 15% to McCain.
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