Democratic Primaries

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)

27. huh?

Mon Aug 26, 2019, 02:50 PM

Aug 2019

He's, at best, tied for first with two other people.

That does not make him "the frontrunner."

Furthermore, this is a 298 person sample size with an almost 6% MOE.

slow your roll a bit there, this is but one somewhat flawed data point...could be true, could not be, could be partially true...but it by no means makes Sanders (or Warren or Biden for that matter) "the front-runner."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Biden PLUMMETS in A+ Rated Monmouth Poll [View all] bluewater Aug 2019 OP

Nice way to make your own title to EMPHASIZE what you want said. nt GemDigger Aug 2019 #1

isn't it true? bluewater Aug 2019 #3

I believe the issue is that we already have a thread on this poll DrToast Aug 2019 #6

Actually, several. DrToast Aug 2019 #7

My table is a clearer presentation of how the Poll has changed. bluewater Aug 2019 #13

When I see a bluewater thread on polls True Dough Aug 2019 #28

Thanks, I try to present the actual results as clear as possible. bluewater Aug 2019 #30

Yes, True Dough Aug 2019 #33

Yes we are lucky BannonsLiver Aug 2019 #40

Being educated is a blessing True Dough Aug 2019 #49

Except it was determined that the poll was an outlier with a very small sample size Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #78

Your table is awesome, and the extra work you did to highlight exactly what happened is super Tiggeroshii Aug 2019 #45

Not at all. I just realized you prefer buzzwords like clickbait. GemDigger Aug 2019 #8

+100 Sneederbunk Aug 2019 #59

People are starting to pay attention now. mobeau69 Aug 2019 #2

I expect the polls to start bouncing around a bit now bluewater Aug 2019 #10

Really? This poll was conducted around the same time as the CNN poll which has Biden leading by 14 Skya Rhen Aug 2019 #31

i would bet cnn's peops were older, thats bidens base questionseverything Aug 2019 #48

Maybe we can get up to 10 threads on this in the next hour or so... LincolnRossiter Aug 2019 #4

Yes! We need a "Castro Surges!" thread DrToast Aug 2019 #14

Kills the Biden is inevitable meme though, doesn't it? bluewater Aug 2019 #16

I'm sure if you Biden supporters can do it so can Warren's. mobeau69 Aug 2019 #15

And SHOUT in all of them question everything Aug 2019 #20

Yawn Watchfoxheadexplodes Aug 2019 #5

5.7% is a big margin of error. Nt spooky3 Aug 2019 #9

-13% is a big drop in support for Biden. OVER TWICE the margin of error. bluewater Aug 2019 #11

Yes, and that means Biden could actually be down another 5.7%. mobeau69 Aug 2019 #17

no need for speculation, Biden's -13% drop is over TWICE the margin of error already. bluewater Aug 2019 #21

Just sayin' MOE works both ways. mobeau69 Aug 2019 #25

True! bluewater Aug 2019 #26

Bernie is now the front runner!!! Joe941 Aug 2019 #12

We need Hillary to run. Only she can beat Bernie. n/t zackymilly Aug 2019 #18

I'm not impressed with Bernie. Eyeball_Kid Aug 2019 #19

I am still undecided but something I love about Bernie is his comebacks/reactions when attacked Perseus Aug 2019 #37

I agree. maddiemom Aug 2019 #62

huh? qazplm135 Aug 2019 #27

dupe gristy Aug 2019 #22

Looks like the DU poll may have just been ahead of the curve. floppyboo Aug 2019 #23

Good to see - I just made my commitment to Warren mvd Aug 2019 #24

Again, I am undecided, but I have not seen any loss of energy on Bernie Perseus Aug 2019 #41

Well, the biggest thing is the 2016 wounds mvd Aug 2019 #51

I'll vote for any of them... TrunKated Aug 2019 #29

Even Patrick Murray, Director of Monmouth Polling, admitted on CNN that his poll can be an outlier Skya Rhen Aug 2019 #34

I know the future bucolic_frolic Aug 2019 #32

After 2016 I lost my interest in polls,all polls. virgogal Aug 2019 #35

Obama nostalgia will only get you so far... Biden has to put forward something out there now JCMach1 Aug 2019 #36

Some people are having ecstatic pleasure from this poll Vegas Roller Aug 2019 #38

You may be right Perseus Aug 2019 #44

Consider that - at that point - that is an outlier! karynnj Aug 2019 #39

A sample size of 297 will make a MOE over 7% NYMinute Aug 2019 #42

Wrong. Just wrong. bluewater Aug 2019 #47

I use a combination of alpha and beta errors NYMinute Aug 2019 #67

A social statistics class could enlighten Bradshaw3 Aug 2019 #63

How so? Please enlighten us NYMinute Aug 2019 #68

WTF are you talking about? Bradshaw3 Aug 2019 #69

I was referring to your statement NYMinute Aug 2019 #72

You referred to a "Sanders Institute" Bradshaw3 Aug 2019 #81

CNN's Harry Enten's analysis of the new Monmouth Poll Princetonian Aug 2019 #43

Even Biden's AVERAGE Poll support has fallen since he announced on April 25th. bluewater Aug 2019 #50

RCP poll averages: Joe 27.3%, Bernie 16.7%, Liz 16.2% Princetonian Aug 2019 #54

Totally sucks. Our chances of beating trump also dropped Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2019 #46

Still very early days, not to worry. cwydro Aug 2019 #53

Thanks for pep talk Cwydro ! Yes, it's early. I love Warren too ! Just want to Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2019 #71

Please. Stop. blm Aug 2019 #52

You wish Hekate Aug 2019 #55

Biden Promised To Cure Cancer DrFunkenstein Aug 2019 #56

The polls are going to shift every which way leading up to the primaries Politicub Aug 2019 #57

Same here. Those who live for the polls are casting their own fates, blm Aug 2019 #76

"No single poll's results should be overemphasized." HA paulkienitz Aug 2019 #58

though biden isn't on my primary short list I never put much stock into polls, even weeks yaesu Aug 2019 #60

Biden has 6% of those polled under 50. Ace Rothstein Aug 2019 #61

Wrong. Where did you get that number? Joe is tied w/Warren at 18% for those 30-44. Princetonian Aug 2019 #64

That is specific to this poll. Ace Rothstein Aug 2019 #66

From Nate Silver re recent Monmouth poll Gothmog Aug 2019 #65

Obama/HRC pollster John Anzalone on this outlier Monmouth poll vs Morning Consult w/Biden lead highplainsdem Aug 2019 #70

That MorningConsult online poll is run at LEAST every single week. bluewater Aug 2019 #80

A whole 2 point difference? LincolnRossiter Aug 2019 #82

A front runner who's polling in the 20s and dropping? bluewater Aug 2019 #87

When was the last time a non-incumbent candidate LincolnRossiter Aug 2019 #88

"Polls finally matter!!! Polls finally matter!!!!" LanternWaste Aug 2019 #73

+1,000,000 Skya Rhen Aug 2019 #75

"Actually voting does not start for 5 months. No single poll's results should be overemphasized" bluewater Aug 2019 #79

Polls are subject to change but this is more realistic that most I have seen. Autumn Aug 2019 #74

I saw that, too customerserviceguy Aug 2019 #77

Here's a little dose of reality to add to this poll: George II Aug 2019 #83

This! Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #84

Nice try. Polly Hennessey Aug 2019 #85

Daily Kos Elections: We have a policy against writing up polls with sample sizes of under 300 highplainsdem Aug 2019 #86

That's a huge drop! Lordquinton Aug 2019 #89