Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Biden PLUMMETS in A+ Rated Monmouth Poll [View all]Princetonian
(1,501 posts)43. CNN's Harry Enten's analysis of the new Monmouth Poll
If you average Monmouth's poll with the three other high-quality national polls taken this month from CNN/SSRS, Fox News and Quinnipiac University, you get a clear Biden lead: Biden at 28%, Warren 19% and Sanders 14%..
Snip...
When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters. Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.
The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.
You'll note that in all of these other polls, Biden's doing at least 10 points better than he was doing in the Monmouth poll. It seems unlikely to me that Biden lost so much ground within the two-day period of CNN ending its own poll.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254977
Snip...
When you break it down further, you see that Monmouth did not poll at a vastly later date than others or among a different set of voters. Monmouth conducted its poll on August 16-20 among voters who say they are Democrats and independents who say they lean toward the Democratic Party.
Interestingly enough, CNN did its own poll of the race August 15-18 among this same defined group. Unlike Monmouth, CNN put Biden up with 29% to Sanders' 15% and Warren's 14%.
The CNN poll looks a lot more like other polls of the race taken this month when it comes to Biden. Fox News was in the field from August 11-13 (within a week of the Monmouth and CNN polls) and showed Biden at 31%, Warren 20% and Sanders 10%. Unlike CNN and Monmouth, Fox didn't preassign voters to the Democratic primary based on party identification. Instead, they asked all voters which primary they'd vote in.
You'll note that in all of these other polls, Biden's doing at least 10 points better than he was doing in the Monmouth poll. It seems unlikely to me that Biden lost so much ground within the two-day period of CNN ending its own poll.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287254977
to Skya Rhen
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
89 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
Except it was determined that the poll was an outlier with a very small sample size
Thekaspervote
Aug 2019
#78
Your table is awesome, and the extra work you did to highlight exactly what happened is super
Tiggeroshii
Aug 2019
#45
Really? This poll was conducted around the same time as the CNN poll which has Biden leading by 14
Skya Rhen
Aug 2019
#31
no need for speculation, Biden's -13% drop is over TWICE the margin of error already.
bluewater
Aug 2019
#21
I am still undecided but something I love about Bernie is his comebacks/reactions when attacked
Perseus
Aug 2019
#37
Even Patrick Murray, Director of Monmouth Polling, admitted on CNN that his poll can be an outlier
Skya Rhen
Aug 2019
#34
Obama nostalgia will only get you so far... Biden has to put forward something out there now
JCMach1
Aug 2019
#36
Even Biden's AVERAGE Poll support has fallen since he announced on April 25th.
bluewater
Aug 2019
#50
Thanks for pep talk Cwydro ! Yes, it's early. I love Warren too ! Just want to
Laura PourMeADrink
Aug 2019
#71
though biden isn't on my primary short list I never put much stock into polls, even weeks
yaesu
Aug 2019
#60
Wrong. Where did you get that number? Joe is tied w/Warren at 18% for those 30-44.
Princetonian
Aug 2019
#64
Obama/HRC pollster John Anzalone on this outlier Monmouth poll vs Morning Consult w/Biden lead
highplainsdem
Aug 2019
#70
"Actually voting does not start for 5 months. No single poll's results should be overemphasized"
bluewater
Aug 2019
#79
Daily Kos Elections: We have a policy against writing up polls with sample sizes of under 300
highplainsdem
Aug 2019
#86