
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: How does Bernie think he's going to convince millions of voters who chose Hillary last time [View all]Tom Rinaldo
(23,092 posts)No matter who is currently considered a favorite it is an uphill battle for any of our candidates to emerge with a majority of delegates.
The odds literally do not favor any one of them winning. It is just a matter of who faces more or less steep odds to do so. No candidate's supporters form a monolithic bloc. There were some Hillary supporters, for example, who backed her over Bernie in 2016 because they feared Bernie could not beat Trump, even though they were more drawn to Bernie on most issues.
The person who wins the nomination will start with their own base, and then pick up some support from those who had them as their second choice, then some from those who had them as their third choice and so on as candidates are eliminated. When it gets down to two or at most three viable options opinions will be strongly influenced by who appears to have the momentum at that stage. In other words who has the look and feel of a potential winner. Right now that could be practically any of our potential candidates. Come late Spring 2020, when the field is tightly narrowed, the main and practically only consideration could well end up being "who looks like they can defeat Trump?"

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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