The dynamics of the race are changing fast. Negativity will not work [View all]

[relayerbob]

News that Sanders is preparing a round of attack ads on Biden will backfire. So far in this cycle, going negative has not worked well at all. When HRC make comments about Sanders, his numbers bumped up each time. When Liz went negative in the debates, her numbers dropped. When Pete went after Amy after Iowa, it was roundly criticized and his position in the race dropped back. There are many more examples. People are sick of this garbage, we get it every day from Trump, and most will not tolerate it from a Democratic nominee - especially attacking an ally. Save it for the real enemies: Trump, Moscow Mitch and the Russian/GOP/NRA cabal. Biden does not have the strong negatives of HRC, and is widely viewed as a nice and fair gentleman. Attacks by Sanders on Biden are strongly discouraged by this observer.

Sanders has plateaued at 30%-ish, and cannot easily win the other 70% unless he changes the character of his campaign, which is highly improbable, since it would require a change in Sanders' personal character, and the removal of several key aides. In 2016, it was at this point, in early March as things starting heading south for the campaign, that Sanders went full-on scorched Earth. It was an amateur move, damaged his credibility then, and will destroy his slim chances when he does it now. I see no path for him to gain the 50%+1 that will be required to win the nomination.

Bloomberg is out now, and without him in the race, coupled with early voting already in, Biden would likely have won CA last night, also.

I've supported Warren since 2012, and love her, and only changed to Biden late last night. I wish she was viable, but it appears that the glass ceiling applies with progressive candidates as surely as it does in the other lanes. Shocking to me, really. Liz is going to get out soon. She had one narrow path, which required winning MA, and finishing at least second in CA and TX. Whether she thinks she can go on depends on her belief that this will be a contested convention. It won't be, mark my words. She will support Biden, perhaps a bit reluctantly, and will, quite rightly, continue to push for big, bold change. As is shown by the many people here who have moved from Warren to Biden already, most of Warren's supporters are going to go there. Of course, some will go Sanders' way, but the majority, IMO, don't really much like Sanders in the first place (or they'd already have picked him, and/or were former HRC supporters who want to see a woman in the White House) or, and an even bigger incentive, want her to have a seat at the table to get her agenda inserted into the government. We are not called "pragmatic progressives" for nothing - as they say, 20% of something is better than 100% of nothing.

The demeanor in the various speeches last night says it all. Watch the body language. The tide has turned.

Biden is not the timid, confused person that only wants status quo, that he is being portrayed as. That's all bullshit. He is smart, seasoned, and will hire the absolute best people to get the jobs done, and he WILL listen, compromise and work with whatever coalitions he can put together to find real solutions to our problems. He absolutely does not believe he is some sort of "stable genius", and instead has a genuine humility that will score major points around the world. I truly do believe that, even if he wasn't my first choice in this campaign. He's already made that clear with his comments to Beto, Amy and Pete (Beto in charge of gun policy!! YES!!)

Thank you to the huge crowds that turned out everywhere last night, to show us the "will of the people". And a special THANK YOU to the black community in particular, who refused to get pulled into the divisiveness and pettiness of the race, and made crystal clear who needs to be the candidate for the Democratic Party, so that we can beat Trump, keep the House, and hopefully, take back the Senate and a bunch of state-level races.