Democratic Primaries

Cicada

(4,533 posts) Thu Apr 25, 2019, 07:00 AM Apr 2019

If Biden is nominee his odds of victory are 76% [View all]

Betting markets, like polls, aren’t perfect predictors, but they have proven validity, a pretty good track record. Some say the predict better than polls. Right now Predictit has the odds of Biden being the nominee at 25%. His odds of becoming president are 19%. That means that if he is the nominee his odds of winning are 76%. Overall Predictit has the odds of a democrat becoming President at 57%. So Biden seems a good choice. In a poll yesterday Biden had an eight point lead over Trump. Chris Christie yesterday said Trump won because of a small number of white working class voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Looking at all the democratic contenders Christie thinks Biden has the best chance of stealing those voters away from Trump.

I prefer Warren or Booker but I think Biden is more likely to win. And Biden can appoint Warren head of Treasury, Booker head of health and human services, Inslee head of EPA, Harris Attorney General. Vice President should be New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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If Biden is nominee his odds of victory are 76% [View all] Cicada Apr 2019 OP

It would be nice if he Turbineguy Apr 2019 #1

Our nation is fatigued by trump. dubyadiprecession Apr 2019 #3

The big unknown is if we go to a brokered convention. I know there are some who still_one Apr 2019 #2

The DNC changed the way it handles super delegates now, correct? watoos Apr 2019 #4

That is my understanding also, though in the past the SD always went with the candidate that had still_one Apr 2019 #5

Move your foot a little bit. Your worries at this point in time in the primary races.. friend of m and j Apr 2019 #7

Good analogy, but I still think there is a good chance too many candidates will not drop out still_one Apr 2019 #10

Well, history suggests don't worry until you have to. Hortensis Apr 2019 #20

I hear you. Nothing anyone can do about it anyway still_one Apr 2019 #23

Well, we sure can't, whatever strategies might Hortensis Apr 2019 #29

Tes we certainly do Hortensis. Too interesting for my taste still_one Apr 2019 #33

At least we're spared some of it. Hortensis Apr 2019 #34

Supers always voted for the candidate who got the most delegates. Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #21

A brokered convention is the absolute last thing to worry about Blue_Adept Apr 2019 #11

The fact is the SD rules have changed dramatically. This does NOT get trotted out every election still_one Apr 2019 #13

I disagree, it has gotten trotted out on DU regularly going back to '04 Blue_Adept Apr 2019 #14

We don't usually have 20 candidates run, with 10 probably still in after Super Tuesday, but we will still_one Apr 2019 #15

On the second vote supers can vote for the winner of the primary as they Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #22

Here's another one: History shows that the early leader Hortensis Apr 2019 #6

We all donated in my house. THREE FOUR BIDEN. Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #18

Who can beat Trump? friend of m and j Apr 2019 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author sfwriter Apr 2019 #9

What were Hillary's odds? SweetieD Apr 2019 #12

Predictit had her about the same before election day Cicada Apr 2019 #16

Those are damn good odds. Donate!! Demsrule86 Apr 2019 #17

Our Friends bdamomma Apr 2019 #19

Bovada still has Bernie with better odds Go Vols Apr 2019 #24

FiveThirtyEight has interesting polling results... SleeplessinSoCal Apr 2019 #25

like others have said, the democratic candidate field would be a could start for a cabinet AND beachbum bob Apr 2019 #26

No way Biden appoints Warren to treasury. He is raising Big$$$ delisen Apr 2019 #27

Who are the biggest employers in Delaware? What would happen if they went gateley Apr 2019 #31

Gotta say -- I like them odds! Blue Owl Apr 2019 #28

I want ALL of our candidates to do well. We're very lucky. nt gateley Apr 2019 #32

What were the odds of Trump winning? nt gateley Apr 2019 #30

That's a brutal interpretation of the numbers Awsi Dooger Apr 2019 #35

Christie ignores the Russian influence on 2016 but Mueller and C!A have not delisen Apr 2019 #36