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Larry Sabato made a bold Democratic primary prediction today

Larry Sabato (Oxford, U. of Virginia, Princeton) and Kyle Kondik, today predicted,

"If Sanders defeats Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire, we still believe that Clinton will be the nominee — though she may limp into the Philadelphia convention if the contest turns into a long, painful slog."

That's bold. I disagree. If Sanders wins both IA and NH, momentum will be humongous and may influence subsequent states greatly.

But Sabato's record is excellent. We will see what happens.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/iowa-at-last/

Study: Bernie Sanders's single-payer plan is almost twice as expensive as he says

Vox, January 28th 2016

"Bernie Sanders's health care plan is underfunded by almost $1.1 trillion a year, a new analysis by Emory University health care expert Kenneth Thorpe finds.

Thorpe isn't some right-wing critic skeptical of all single-payer proposals. Indeed, in 2006 he laid out a single-payer proposal for Vermont after being hired by the legislature, and was retained by progressive Vermont lawmakers again in 2014 as the state seriously considered single-payer, authoring a memo laying out alternative ways to expand coverage. A 2005 report he wrote estimated that a single-payer system would save $1.1 trillion in health spending from 2006 to 2015.

But he nonetheless concludes that single-payer at a national level would be significantly more expensive than the Sanders campaign believes, and would require workers to pay an additional 20 percent of their compensation in taxes. He also argues it would leave 71 percent of households with private insurance worse off once you take both tax increases and reduced health care expenditures into account.

Sanders's camp is, naturally, skeptical. Sanders's policy director Warren Gunnels told me Thorpe's analysis is a "total hatchet job." The disagreement ultimately comes down to a question of how optimistic you are about single-payer's ability to reduce health care spending."

More http://www.vox.com/2016/1/28/10858644/bernie-sanders-kenneth-thorpe-single-payer

Texas poll: Clinton 50%, Sanders 16%

Glenn Greenwald opposed the nomination of Elena Kagan (She turned out to be a great justice)

For context on Glenn Greenwald's wisdom, he opposed the nomination of Elena Kagan.
http://www.salon.com/2010/04/13/kagan_3/

Time Magazine: Sanders' tax plan has no chance of passing even if Democrats control Congress

1/28/2016

Time

"All of these calculations, of course, suppose that Sanders’ tax plan has a snowball’s chance in Congress of actually passing. Which it does not. Even with a Democratic Congress. And even with a President Sanders in 2017."

http://time.com/4194179/bernie-sanders-tax-plan/

Washington Post editorial board: Bernie Sanders' plans are full of "fiction"

The Washington Post editorial board slams Bernie Sanders' promises. Here is just the last paragraph:

"Sanders is a lot like many other politicians. Strong ideological preferences guide his thinking, except when politics does, as it has on gun control. When reality is ideologically or politically inconvenient, he and his campaign talk around it. Mr. Sanders’s success so far does not show that the country is ready for a political revolution. It merely proves that many progressives like being told everything they want to hear".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bernie-sanderss-fiction-filled-campaign/2016/01/27/cd1b2866-c478-11e5-9693-933a4d31bcc8_story.html

Washington Post editorial board: Bernie Sanders is selling "fiction" to voters

You may call this opposite of an endorsement

By Editorial Board January 27 at 7:57 PM

Here is an excerpt:

"Mr. Sanders tops off his narrative with a deus ex machina: He assures Democrats concerned about the political obstacles in the way of his agenda that he will lead a “political revolution” that will help him clear the capital of corruption and influence-peddling. This self-regarding analysis implies a national consensus favoring his agenda when there is none and ignores the many legitimate checks and balances in the political system that he cannot wish away.

Mr. Sanders is a lot like many other politicians. Strong ideological preferences guide his thinking, except when politics does, as it has on gun control. When reality is ideologically or politically inconvenient, he and his campaign talk around it. Mr. Sanders’s success so far does not show that the country is ready for a political revolution. It merely proves that many progressives like being told everything they want to hear."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bernie-sanderss-fiction-filled-campaign/2016/01/27/cd1b2866-c478-11e5-9693-933a4d31bcc8_story.html

PA-Franklin & Marshall: Clinton 46% Sanders 29%

January 18-23.
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/401064709520750892-january-2016-franklin-marshall-college-poll.pdf