https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1672622178989219843
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1672622178989219843.html
Having been defeated repeatedly by Ukraine, Russian forces have found an easier opponent, one with corrupt leadership, incompetent commanders, and low morale.
Few if any are rooting for war criminal Prigozhin to replace war criminal Putin. But chaos is opportunity for change while the status quo is war and terror. It means fewer resources directed against Ukraine. Whatever the result in Russia, the regime will be weaker.
You cannot expect a liberal democracy to suddenly bloom in a dictatorship desert. It’s all rats, snakes, and scorpions. All you can hope for is opportunity for change where currently there is none. Leverage shifts, light gets in through cracks.
Russians have been fighting for nothing but the imperial delusions of a dictator and the monumental avarice of his mafia. Ukraine's bravery has exposed it all and it's literally and figuratively coming home. An interview:
Garry Kasparov -The Fall of Putin is Inevitable
The initial reaction to the military revolt in Russia from a leading Russian democratic figure.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/18662
Dictatorships are hard but brittle; one crack can shatter. Putin brutally repressed even our smallest opposition because he understood that any perception of weakness was fatal. His ability to hide the consequences of war from his elites is now over.
Putin's instincts are always to kill, including Russians. But will soldiers who fought in Ukraine and the amateur home guards obey and fire on Prigozhin's seasoned forces? The words of the generals who benefit from the mafia do not decide this.
My thread from when this first began last night. Now it has become clear the new reality is here, that quiet accommodation and restructuring to satisfy all factions is impossible.
There's no chain of command in Russia, no responsibility, and the media is waiting for orders that don't come. An armed convoy is en route to the capital and there's nothing but drivel because Putin knows violence will spread panic among a population he tells everything is fine.
As I just told Corriere de la Serra, the 1917 parallels are correct, but also a replica of Mussolini's march on Rome in 1922. It's not just a lost war, it's a long war going badly. Now soldiers from poor regions see the elites not fighting, living in luxury, on their mobile.
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1672676276635574281
Garry Kasparov
@Kasparov63
It's a mafia, not a state, and they will walk back or swallow anything that is profitable. Infighting rarely is. This also exposes the stupidity of saying Putin needs off-ramps or to save face in Ukraine. He's a dictator, and can make up anything he wants.
Bill Browder @Billbrowder · 1h
New reports claim that Wagner boss turns troops back from Moscow. This doesn’t make any sense to me. Putin ordered Prighozin killed earlier today. How does he walk that back? How does Prighozin survive after this? Putin never forgives nor forgets https://apple.news/AksyHCoJOStucCt05JtD9KA
2:41 PM · Jun 24, 2023
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1672677211017564160
Garry Kasparov
@Kasparov63
Prigozhin and Putin don't care about bloodshed. Not about Russians, not about Ukrainians or anyone else. They care about money and the power to keep it. If they made a deal, it will last only as long as the money does.
2:44 PM · Jun 24, 2023