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logme's JournalWhite House advisor says another coronavirus epidemic like NYC could change US mortality rate
Source: cnbc
Another big coronavirus outbreak like the one New York City is bracing for could “dramatically change” the death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S., White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said Friday.
White House officials earlier this week projected between 100,000 and 240,000 people will die from the coronavirus in the U.S. Birx said the mortality models are updated every night to take into account new data, which generally include how the disease is progressing in other countries, social distancing restrictions imposed by states and the rise in new infections.
The estimates currently project between 40,000 and 178,000 deaths, according to the data cited by Birx, who added that the average number of deaths is expected to be around 93,000.
“All of that can be changed by our behaviors, and all of that can be changed in a different way if we don’t follow those behaviors,” Birx said.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/white-house-advisor-says-another-coronavirus-epidemic-like-nyc-could-change-us-mortality-rate.html
That is the second downward revision I heard about about, over the last couple of day ( along with the IHME at University of Washington numbers ). I am wondering what kind of data are fueling those more optimistic projections.
Nb: IHME model for the total death toll has been rather accurate for the first days of April : https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections it projects a total of 93000 death during this first wave.
US accused of 'modern piracy' after diversion of masks meant for Europe
Source: The Guardian
The US has been accused of “modern piracy” after reportedly diverting a shipment of masks intended for the German police, and outbidding other countries in the increasingly fraught global market for coronavirus protective equipment.
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/mask-wars-coronavirus-outbidding-demand
Nb. In France regional authorities have been complaining about this kind of behaviors for a couple of days, but it now appears that all the EU countries might have similar issues. It took some time to coordinate among the EU states but now it seems we will have to deal with the US, which seems problematic if even the American states themselves are not coordinating their actions with the federal authorities.
New leads regarding the origins of the outbreak of covid-19 in France ( especially in the east )
I saw an interesting piece in the french newspaper Le monde this morning.
Since the outbreak got out of control in northern Italy, France was bracing for impact, assuming that since Italy was not able to clearly identify the original clusters and carriers it was only a question of time before it spill out to the rest of Europe.
Apparently the sudden multiplication of clusters in some french cities may have not only be the consequence of the events in Lombardy. An other suspect emerged :
The Christians ! or to be more specific those damn evangelists ;o)
Exerpt ( mostly automated translation) :
"It is really from Mulhouse that the epidemic spread on the national territory", explains Mr. Véran in Le Journal du dimanche.
More than 2,000 worshipers attended that week's services and meetings organized by the Open Christian Door Church. In the absence of registration and listing, it is difficult, outside of the seventeen deaths, to count the number of sick or infected people. Quoted by the investigation and investigation unit of Radio France, the head of the regional health agency, Christophe Lannelongue, puts forward the figure of a thousand.
Fifteen days passed between the gathering and the arrival of the first heavy cases in intensive care, from March 2 to 6. Knowing that we estimate that less than 5% of sick people arrive in the hospital ...
The names of all those admitted to the hospital should be tracked one by one. This will be the work of epidemiological, judicial or parliamentary inquiries to come.
Source : https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2020/03/30/de-nouveaux-temoignages-d-infection-au-covid-19-apres-le-rassemblement-de-mulhouse_6034874_3224.html
So, they were right all along, it was god wrath
! That would make at least 3 countries those kind zealous believers help fucked up ( with South korea and the US). I do not know if this is the result of poor hygiene or a masterful plan to hasten the end of times, but it is an interesting trend.
Note : In France we had similar issues with Muslims coming back every year from their pilgrimage to mecca with various ailment including MERS-cov, now it is the evangelists with covid-19.
I always thought Louis XIV was a fucking moron for revoking the Edict of Nante , but maybe he was onto something.
I guess for many of my fellow countrymen, this will confirm the dangers of churches & religions
So release the lions ! oups I mean... be careful and stay at home to pray and have a nice day !
Some of the latest news from the european front ( covid-19 evolution in france )
Hi everyone,
The wave is inexorably coming in France from Spain and Italy.
Some clusters especially in the east are now saturated. Transfers of Patients to the west started via High-Speed Train with mobile emergency room, along with the launch of a military operation called resilience.
Those are actually the same resources used to fight the Ebola pandemic in Africa ! Multiple air bridge are being set up with both designed military planes and "medicalized" regular airbus. A military hospital has also been deployed in the East.
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In view of the latest data from Spain and Italy next week is going to be a nightmare.
- Our age pyramid structure is pretty similar. Basically, the older the population is, the worst it is. Paradoxically the higher the life expectancy the higher the risk of a high mortality rate ( if the epidemic is not contained at an early stage).
Nb. In Europe , France Italy and Spain have the highest number of "4th age people" and centenarians.
Many other similarity between our countries do not bode well for next couple of weeks.
- The density of the population in major city and the quality of the means of transport are rather high in France which is similar to the web of cities of the north of Italy.
Paradoxically, the more efficient & cheaper it is to move from a city to the next via public transport the higher the probability of having multiple major clusters festering.
- One of the main concern like in many countries is the sustainability of our test (and equipment) supply ( and their reliability )..
Systematic testing seems to be the only alternative to quarantine. In Europe, most countries did not have enough tests or masks & materials to equip everyone from the start. This is in large part due to the austerity policy championed by Germany & the Netherlands over the last 15 to 20 years in the euro-zone. Supply was streamlined and became increasingly reliant on import from china.
In France after the Sars crisis France had 1.3 billion mask in stocks. In 2011 President Nicolas Sarkozy (right wing) decided to allow the decrease of the national stock & transferred the responsibility to the hospitals. The stocks rapidly decreased to a couple hundred millions and the policy was confirmed by president Holland (center left) in 2013 due to budgetary constraints.
When Macron ( "center" ) was elected there was probably north of a hundred million masks left. Unable to loosen the yoke of Maastricht criteria the current majority kept the same line trying to patch and preserve the hospital system while avoiding increasing the debt.
Regarding tests, France was able to acquire enough of them at the very beginning, but got stuck due to the inability of medical analysis laboratory to processed the increased stream. It appears they were lacking chemical revealers used in the process. This is why they chose to proceed with a confinement/quarantine style policy despite its staggering economic cost.
Nb. The situation was probably similar in many euro zone countries with the noticeable exception of Germany
A more systemic use of new manufactured tests will be possible in April. Beyond that, a long term objective is to have test available in order to detect antibodies & immune people. Once the peak is reached, as an increasing number of recovered people come back home, a prolonged confinement will become difficult.
It will be necessary to size the full scope of the pandemic. This require us to identify both the "healthy carrier" population and monitor the immune one ( if we want to be able to progressively loosen the confinement).
Obviously those thing will take time, clearly no Easter eggs for the French ;o).
One of the thing this crisis exposed is the excessive reliance on imports and the systematic de-localization of what now appears to be critical industrial assets. The capacity of a few countries ( like Germany ) to maintain some of those production locally was not necessarily the result of better insights or preparedness but simply a by-product of a stronger overall industrial position.
I hope the USA as a major economic power is now prepared to face those issues and will learn from the experience of medical personnel in Europe. You may have a clown at the white house, but many states seems to do what needs to be done on the costs and the sheer size and relative youth of the country should make it easier to deal with this pandemic
Cheers from Paris
Edit / update : while there are currently less monitored cases in France ( non life threatening cases ), there is unfortunately more ( critical ) patients in intensive care units (4600) than in Italy ( 3900 ) or Spain (4200 ).
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