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NNadir

NNadir's Journal
NNadir's Journal
April 9, 2023

Extending Equations of State to Inhomogeneous Systems.

The paper to which I'll refer in this post is this one: FeOs: An Open-Source Framework for Equations of State and Classical Density Functional Theory Philipp Rehner, Gernot Bauer, and Joachim Gross Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research 2023 62 (12), 5347-5357.

In the 1950's, Richard Feynman predicted an age of nanotechnology: There's plenty of room at the bottom.

It's here. In my day job, I often find myself contemplating nanoparticle formulations various therapeutics under development. The nanoparticle "genius" Robert Langer is on the scientific boards of hundreds of pharmaceutical companies, and I collaborate with some of them. (I do not know, and have never met, and will never meet, Robert Langer, although I have attended lectures at which he has spoken.)

For the record, the Moderna and BioNT/Pfizer mRNA vaccines are essentially dual fluid phase nanoparticles. There are many other examples of similar formulations, not all of which, not even perhaps, the majority of which, involve RNA.

Beyond their role in medicine nanoparticles, including solid phase nanoparticles can have many roles in many areas, including carbon capture for carbon utilization, an idea I support.

When my son graduated high school and was on his way to college, I asked, for my father's day present that he write a program in Mathematica to solve the Peng Robinson Equation of State. My idea was to encourage him to learn something about programming and Equations of State. I thought this would help him to prepare for college.

He blew me off as it happens, and although I was slightly disappointed at the time, my concern about "getting him ready" now seems laughable. In his first year Ph.D. graduate school he routinely works and programs with sophisticated software involving neural networks for machine learning applications, as he did when he was working on his Master's degree, and indeed as an undergraduate. His first scientific paper to be published in a peer reviewed journal, on which he will appear as coauthor, will involve as much, machine learning in atomic scale imaging.

I try to keep up on Equations of State, many of which are advanced well beyond the (still widely used) Peng Robinson equation of state.

I came across this paper, cited above today in my regular reading which refers to the class of situations (not all of which are nanoparticle based) for which inhomogeneous states apply, for example, fluidized bed systems which are widely used in all kinds of industries.

From the introductory paragraphs:

Thermodynamic equations of state (EoS) are fundamental tools in thermal and chemical engineering (1?3) They enable calculating properties of multicomponent systems as a function of experimentally accessible quantities such as temperature, pressure, and composition. Equations of state differ in the breadth of their applicability and complexity, and depending on the field of application, there are requirements on functionality, robustness, precision, and computational speed. A milestone in the description of fluid phases was provided by van der Waals’ equation of state, (4) which is based on a (coarse) molecular model and first led to description of vapor/liquid coexistence. Prominent modifications of the model by van der Waals that preserve the cubic volume-dependence are Redlich–Kwong, (5) Soave–Redlich–Kwong, (6) and Peng–Robinson. (7) Due to their fast evaluation times, cubic EoS are still widely used in technical applications. However, they lack a physical basis when describing nonspherical, polar, or hydrogen-bonding substances and mixtures. Modern EoS are developed based on a molecular model, i.e., a description of (pairwise) intra- and intermolecular interactions. Although theories for fluids with simple spherical intermolecular interactions were developed in the 1970s, (8) the field made a leap with a development of M.S. Wertheim, who derived a description for highly directional interactions. (9?12) Wertheim’s theory led to the statistical associating fluid theory (SAFT), (13) which regards molecules as chains of spherical segments (thus accounting for the nonspherical shape of real molecules due to covalent bonds) and allows for short-ranged attractive (hydrogen) bonds. The success of SAFT led to the development of a plethora of derived models, of which the most used ones are PC-SAFT, (14?17) SAFT-VR-Mie, (18) and soft-SAFT. (19,20) A combination of a cubic equation of state with the association contribution from TPT1 was published as cubic + association (CPA). (21?23) Finally, TPT1 and SAFT can resolve individual segments on a molecule, leading to the development of heterosegmented EoS likeSAFT-?-Mie (24) and gc-PC-SAFT. (25)

Cubic and SAFT-type EoS aim to describe fluids based on a few either macroscopic (cubic) or microscopic (SAFT) properties. The small number of parameters ensures a robust extrapolation to state points for which no experimental data is available and the molecular model underlying these EoS ensure a meaningful description of mixtures with few binary interaction parameters or even predictions of mixture properties. However, experimental data is abundant for some fluids, and reference equations of state that use a large number of adjustable parameters to represent the experimental data of those substances have been developed. Reference EoS were published for pure components like water, (26) CO2, (27) and nitrogen, (28) but also for mixtures like natural gas or related systems. (29)
While EoS are used to compute properties of homogeneous fluid phases and to model phase equilibria and phase stability, they cannot model properties of microscopically inhomogeneous systems like fluids at interfaces or in porous media. Being able to model these phenomena is essential for dynamic processes such as droplet coalescence or formation of micelles or engineering applications such as adsorption. Classical density functional theory (30) (DFT) is a framework that extends fluid theories (i.e., equations of state based on a molecular model) to inhomogeneous systems. In DFT, the system is described by the grand potential, which can be expressed as a functional of the (partial) density profiles. Despite the fact that DFT is a formalism that has been used and studied in research for decades, it is not a commonly used method in industry as of today, although it can be used to predict properties that are difficult or expensive to measure, such as surface tensions of mixtures, (31) contact angles, (32) and adsorption isotherms. (33,34) In addition, it can provide insights into phenomena that are experimentally difficult to assess, such as the accumulation of light-boiling or amphiphilic molecules at interfaces. (35)

Within the last years, multiple open-source packages in the field of thermodynamics and equations of state were published, each with its own focus. CoolProp (36) and thermo (37) provide databases, correlations for properties such as vapor pressures and activity coefficients, and equations of state. Thermopack (38,39) (written in Fortran) focuses on equations of state with an emphasis on robust algorithms for phase equilibria and critical points, including multiphase flashes to be used within computational fluid dynamics simulations. phasepy (40,41) provides Python implementations of equations of state and algorithms for phase equilibria, including square gradient theory which can be used to describe density profiles across vapor liquid interfaces. teqp (42) (written in C++) and Clapeyron.jl (43) (written in Julia)─similar to FeOs─both utilize automatic differentiation, which circumvents the need to implement analytic derivatives of the Helmholtz energy. All of these projects have a common feature: they provide an interface to a dynamic, high-level programming language. Clapeyron.jl is implemented in the Julia programming language, while the others are either fully implemented in Python (phasepy, thermo) or provide Python bindings (CoolProp, Thermopack, teqp). Clearly, for a modern toolkit, this is a necessity as it enables access to a broader range of users and allows using tools such as Jupyter notebooks that make research more transparent and reproducible.

A recent survey of the Working Party of Thermodynamics and Transport Properties of the European Federation of Chemical Engineering summarizes the most important gaps and concerns raised by industry in the field of applied thermodynamics and outlines specific requirements for model frameworks. (44) In a subsequent publication, the authors outline the “main directions that [they] believe the applied thermodynamics community should adopt in the coming decade”: (3)

There is a need for methods to assess the properties of fluids under confinement, at interfaces, and in the presence of external fields.
Users must be able to parametrize the model and assess its uncertainties and range of applicability

In the same vein, access to these models and parameters has to be transparent, ideally in a standardized form and including the data used for the parametrization.

Finally, there is increasing demand for ongoing education, training, and collaboration.

FeOs is well suited to address these important topics. The implementation of DFT in FeOs is designed with respect to the modeling of industrially relevant problems. It provides ad hoc functionalities to describe confined media and interfaces or to specify external potentials. Furthermore, FeOs provides utilities to optimize model parameters within a couple of lines of code. All of this is possible from within Jupyter notebooks without sacrificing performance. With the simple installation and availability on all major platforms, results can easily be shared and reproduced.

FeOs is developed with two use-cases in mind. First, it provides implementations for equations of state and Helmholtz energy functionals for DFT together with algorithms for critical point and phase equilibrium calculations as well as solvers for density profiles in multiple dimensions and coordinate systems. It can therefore be used as a toolkit to compute thermodynamic properties of homogeneous and inhomogeneous systems. And second, it provides interfaces and data types that can be used to extend the code, e.g., to implement new models and algorithms...


Note that the authors have nobly made this software open sourced. They will get funded, but it's not about making money for them; it's about advancing the science and technology on which the survival of our planet very much depends, even as they have threatened the survival of our planet.

We live in the best of times and the worst of times.

Charles Dickens ain't got nothing on us.

For those among us who may be Christians, Happy Easter.
April 9, 2023

New Weekly CO2 Concentration Record Set at the Mauna Loa Observatory, 422.60 ppm.

As I've indicated repeatedly in my DU writings, somewhat obsessively I keep a spreadsheet of the weekly data at the Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide Observatory, which I use to do calculations to record the dying of our atmosphere, a triumph of fear, dogma and ignorance that did not have to be, but nonetheless is, a fact.

Facts matter.

When writing these depressing repeating posts about new records being set, reminiscent, over the years, to the ticking of a clock at a deathwatch, I often repeat some of the language from a previous post on this awful series, as I am doing here. It saves time.

Last year's record setting peak was 421.63 ppm, recorded in week 21 of 2022, the week beginning May 29, 2022.

As I've been reporting over the years in various contexts, the concentrations of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide which is killing the planet even as we carry on and on and on and on about things like Fukushima, which will not kill the planet, fluctuate sinusoidally over the year, with the rough sine wave superimposed on a quadratic axis:



Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2

At another point in my tenure here recording this ongoing disaster about which we are doing nothing meaningful, although we do like to look at pictures of vast stretches of wilderness that have been industrialized into solar and wind industrial parks, an ineffective climate "Hail Mary" that has become an article of faith, I calculated a crude equation for the quadratic equation by doing two integrations and determining the coefficients from the boundary conditions:

When I joined DU in 2002, I believed that solar and wind were important tools for addressing climate change. I was supportive of money spent on the infrastructure and research devoted to this theory. Of course, when I joined DU in November of 2002, the concentration of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere was 372.68 ppm. For the last week for which Mauna Loa data has been posted as of this writing, the week beginning July 3, 2022, that measurement was 419.73. I trust - hopefully not naively - that people can add and subtract. The first derivative, the rate of change of CO2 concentrations as measured by 12 month running averages of weekly Mauna Loa CO2 Observatory data, in November 2002 in the week I joined DU, was 1.66 ppm/year. Given the last data point as of this writing, it has reached 2.45 ppm/year.

Let's do something very, very, very crude, just as an illustration with the understanding that it is unsophisticated but may be illustrative:

As of this writing, I have been a member of DU for 19 years and 240 days, which works out in decimal years to 19.658 years. This means the second derivative, the rate of change of the rate of change is 0.04 ppm/yr^2 for my tenure here. (A disturbing fact is that the second derivative for seven years of similar data running from April of 1993 to April of 2000 showed a second derivative of 0.03 ppm/yr^2; the third derivative is also positive, but I'll ignore that for now.) If these trends continue, this suggests that “by 2050,” 28 years from now, using the language that bourgeois assholes in organizations like Greenpeace use to suggest the outbreak of a “renewable energy” nirvana, the rate of change, the first derivative, will be on the order of 3.6 ppm/year. Using very simple calculus, integrating the observed second derivative twice, using the boundary conditions – the current data - to determine the integration constants, one obtains a quadratic equation (0.04)t^2+(2.45)t+ 419.71 = c where t is the number of years after 2022 and c is the concentration at the year in question...

...This admittedly crude "model" roughly suggests that the concentration of dangerous fossil fuel waste, carbon dioxide concentrations, given the trend, will be around 520 ppm “by 2050,” in 28 years, passing, by solving the resultant quadratic equation, somewhere around 500 ppm around 2046, just 24 years from now.


A Commentary on Failure, Delusion and Faith: Danish Data on Big Wind Turbines and Their Lifetimes. (The equation was derived for the boundary conditions at the time of writing, July 2022.)

The week beginning April 2, 2023 is the 13th week of the year.

This week we passed the record set earlier this year, the week beginning February 26, 2023, which was 421.90 ppm. It exceeded the peak established in the week beginning May 29, 2022, of 421.63 ppm.

This week is the first weekly reading at the Mauna Loa CO2 observatory ever to exceed 422 ppm:

Week beginning on April 02, 2023: 422.60 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 420.29 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 398.19 ppm
Last updated: April 09, 2023

Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa

Thus far, 2023, has been a relatively mild year for CO2 increases, but I note that there is a lot of statistical noise in these readings as shown in the graphic below, the graphic showing weekly readings over the last year:



Note that this graphic shows, the final annual peak occurring in May. Over the years, I've seen that the annual peak generally takes place in late spring. This suggests that this new record is not the last to be seen in 2023.

If any of this troubles you, don't worry, be happy. Go online, and call up pictures of huge stretches of former wilderness laced with wind turbines, or covered with semiconductor arrays. This popular exercise, so popular that its been enthusiastically embraced by corporate advertising agencies who love to put them in ads, hasn't done a damned thing to address climate change, isn't doing a damned thing to address climate change, and won't do a damned thing to address climate change, but when experiencing pain, a narcotic haze can be a good thing.

I personally choose to experience the pain; I'm reality based, but to each his, her, or their own.

I'm living in an encroached wilderness hearing phrases blow in on wind suggesting that nuclear energy is "too dangerous" and climate change, um, isn't.

Beyond the wilderness, things must be insane.

If you are a Christian, I wish you a Happy Easter.

April 7, 2023

I literally got to "carry the cross" this Good Friday.

I'm not an adherent of any religion, but my mother, who died almost 50 years ago, was a very devout Christian.

Her death was unbelievably horrible, too slow, too unbearable to watch and involved the literal unraveling of her mind; it was a brain tumor. I was the chief attendant for her care.

After all these decades, I still have great difficulty remembering her when she was well - I only remember the pain, the suffering - but one thing I do remember is how important Good Friday was to her before she became ill. Literally she wept for Jesus every year.

I remember it.

In the years before she got ill, my relationship with my mother was strained; I was young, stupid, and largely a fuck up. Now that I'm a parent myself I can imagine how that felt for her. She died before seeing a better me.

For a number of years, when Good Friday comes I do what no longer comes naturally to me: I go to a church and I reflect on my mother, trying to remember all the wonderful things she did, the most important of which was to teach me how to love. That made a difference in my life, defining the most important thing there is to me as my own death approaches, my marriage.

I go to various churches each Good Friday as I'm somewhat peripatetic in my day to day life for various reasons; sometimes I go when there are no services, and sometimes I show up at the services. Where there are services, they tend to be different. (My mother was an Episcopalian; I go to one of their Parishes, as Christians go, they're hardly the worst.)

I went to a reasonably local church this go around, and there was a "stations of the cross" ceremony and the priest asked that at each station a volunteer carry a real wooden cross, and another volunteer do a reading from the service.

I'm an old man now, with creaky painful bones, but it seemed right to do both, to carry the cross from one station to the next and to read text about suffering, which is what Good Friday is about; in their theology, as I recall from my youth, it is also about forgiveness.

Where my memory of my mother is concerned, forgiveness is required.

I did not anticipate being born; I do not expect to remember dying.

Faith and everlasting life are not my things.

But today, lingering after the service, alone in the Church except for a few other silent people, I could almost feel my mother there again, alive, well, healthy and I imagined her forgiving me.

I wept.

It was a worthy exercise.

April 7, 2023

For the first time, a monthly average figure at the Mauna Loa CO2 observatory closes at 421 ppm.

Here you go folks:

March 2023: 421.00 ppm
March 2022: 418.81 ppm
Last updated: Apr 05, 2023

Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2

I keep spreadsheets of this data for yearly, monthly and weekly values recorded at the Mauna Loa CO2 Observatory (currently being conducted at Maunakea because of a volcanic eruption) for concentrations of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere, including all the available data going back to 1958. (The first annual increases from date to date were thus available, at least for months and years, in 1959.)

The increase from March 2022 to March 2023 is relatively mild: Out of 64 recorded March to March increases it is 2.19 ppm, 20th highest overall. There is a certain amount of statistical "noise" in these readings, but the trends are consistent. As recently as 2021, March showed a 3.19 ppm increase over March of 2020. The all time record for a March increase in average concentrations of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere was in March of 2016 which was 3.31 ppm higher than the reading of March 2015.

In March 2013, the average concentration of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere as measured at Mauna Loa was 397.34 ppm.

In March 2003 the average concentration of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere as measured at Mauna Loa was 376.48 ppm.

In March 1963 the average concentration of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere as measured at Mauna Loa was 319.86 ppm.

If any of this troubles you, don't worry, be happy. I'm sure some bourgeois antinuke will be happy to inform you that the price of flat screen TVs has fallen, the costs of solar cells are sure to follow. I note that in the last 20 years I've been at DU, I've heard lots of cheering for solar energy's "falling prices." Nevertheless trillions of dollars has been spent in this century thus far on solar energy. You would think it mattered. However, the result is that the rate of increases are themselves increasing overall, and now roughly are 2.5 ppm/year on average, as compared to about 1.5 ppm/year in the year 2000.

But again, don't worry, be happy.

Close your eyes and wish real hard, and I'm sure it won't matter.

History will not forgive us, nor should it.

If you're a Christian, have a happy Easter.


April 7, 2023

Good Carbon Friday: German Electricity's Carbon Intensity Is "Only" 1234% Higher Than France's.

From the Electricity Map:



Germany's a country run by antinukes. I've never personally been confused about whether or not antinukes give a rat's ass about climate change - they don't - but just in case anyone else is confused with respect to that, this is one of my regular postings on how much they care about climate change, which is "not at all."

For convenience, I've put the ratio between German carbon intensity, currently at 543 g CO2/kwh and France's carbon intensity 44 g CO2/kwh in "percent talk," which should be familiar to anyone who has had to listen to drivel from antinukes while the world burns.

If you are a Christian, I wish you a Happy Easter.

April 7, 2023

A Mechanism for How Air Pollution Kills, Nature: Lung adenocarcinoma promotion by air pollutants

The paper to which I'll refer briefly is this one: Hill, W., Lim, E.L., Weeden, C.E. et al. Lung adenocarcinoma promotion by air pollutants. Nature 616, 159–167 (2023).

From the introduction:

Barrier organs such as the lung are directly affected by exposure to environmental challenges. Accordingly, more than 20 environmental and occupational agents are lung carcinogens2, and exposure to these are of particular relevance in understanding lung cancer in the never-smoking population. Lung cancer in never-smokers (LCINS) is the eighth most common cause of cancer death in the UK and has distinct clinical and molecular characteristics compared with lung cancer in smokers3. LCINS frequently harbour adenocarcinomas with oncogenic EGFR mutations and are more commonly observed in female individuals and in individuals with East Asian ancestry compared with patients with Western ancestry4. Several factors have been proposed to explain the observed sex and geographical disparities of lung cancer driven by EGFR mutations, including germline genetics5, ethnicity, radon exposure, occupational carcinogen exposure and air pollution6.

Air pollution accounts for 7?million deaths per year, with 99% of people living in areas that exceed World Health Organization guidelines (less than 5??g?m–3 annually)7. Particulate matter (PM) is a key constituent of air pollution and is classified by aerodynamic size. Fine particles ?2.5??m (PM2.5) are able to travel deep into the lung and are linked to multiple adverse health effects, including heart disease and lung cancer7...


EGFR is an abbreviation for epithelial growth factor receptor, an important receptor on the surface of cells that has functional implications. The Uniprot reference is here: P00533 · EGFR_HUMAN

The next paragraphs touch on a personal concern of mine, genetic disposition to esophageal cancer. I discussed this in a tiresome tangent in a post over in the Science forum (where perhaps this post belongs, but I seem to believe that air pollution is an important environmental issue) in which I discussed a happy recent development in the understanding of the biological effects of radiation, the use of molecular biology: A systematic "omics" (molecular biology) approach to the effects of radiation on living tissue.

To wit:

Traditionally, it is thought that carcinogens cause tumours by directly inducing DNA damage. However, recent data suggest that many carcinogens do not cause a detectable DNA mutational signature in tumours following exposure8,9. Genetic analyses of oesophageal cancer showed that mutational signatures do not fully explain the varied geographical incidence of this cancer10, and efforts that have profiled tumour genomes in LCINS failed to detect a dominant carcinogenic signal of mutations deriving from exogenous sources11,12,13.

We propose that air pollutants might promote inflammatory changes in the lung tissue microenvironment that permit pre-existing mutated clones to expand, consistent with the two-stage carcinogenesis model of initiation and promotion1. To address this hypothesis, we combined epidemiological evidence with functional preclinical models and clinical cohorts to decipher potential mechanisms of air-pollution-induced lung tumour promotion and actionable targets for molecular cancer prevention (Extended Data Fig. 1a).


As my life draws to a close, I suddenly find myself thinking a great deal about the implications of inflammatory responses. I am working on a project where inflammatory responses may be involved in a particular form of Alzheimer's disease, a rather novel hypothesis that seems to have considerable merit.

In particular, I am learning to appreciate the effects of cytokines, one of which mentioned in this paper, IL-1?, which plays an important role in inflammatory responses.

In any case, the authors posit that many healthy people do in fact, harbor specific mutations in the EGFR protein that are oncogenic, and go through life without developing this specific (EGFR based) lung cancer. These mutants are relatively rare:

The model of tumour initiation and promotion is contingent on histologically normal tissue cells harbouring oncogenic driver mutations1. In 15 reported studies involving deep sequencing of human histologically normal tissues from different anatomical sites (n?=?9,380 samples from 380 patients), an oncogenic EGFRL858R mutation was only reported in a single clone from a skin microbiopsy, which indicated that these mutations are rare (Supplementary Table 6). Using digital droplet PCR (ddPCR) and duplex sequencing (Duplex-seq), we sought for evidence of EGFR-driver mutations in non-cancerous lung tissue from patients with lung cancer or with cancers of other organs and from individuals with no evidence of cancer (Extended Data Figs. 7 and 8a and Supplementary Table 7).


The paper is rather cool, but regrettably, I will not have much time to spend with it.

The basic thesis is this as I understand it: PM2.5 particles of air pollution stimulate an immune response so that macrophages are recruited into the lung tissue, releasing proinflammatory IL-1? which acts to stimulate the oncogenic cells having mutant EGFR proteins that become cancer cells. Without this stimulation, tissue having these oncogenic mutations can exist in healthy tissue without ever inducing a cancer.

It appears that certain populations, in particular people of Asian origins may have a higher frequency of these problematic mutations, which is not to say that any population should feel immune.

Just a note...

The environmental point is that air pollution kills people.

If you're Jewish: Happy Passover.



April 7, 2023

I've been making the same arguments for several decades.

I worked to come to my conclusions, and I stand by them.

For all those decades I've been hearing - it really doesn't matter which anti-nuke has been offering this repeated nonsense - the same shit, "solar prices are going down, they're cheap, blah, blah, blah, soothsaying, soothsaying, soothsaying.

It's always about some magical thing that just about to happen to make this sick obsessive affectation suddenly effective.

It's been a broken record from generic asshole anti-nukes for decades, here and elsewhere. Do you know when the antinuke Harvey Wasserman wrote the dumb shit book "Solartopia!" that has all the same chants we hear here day after day, year after year, decade after decade while the world burns?

It was in 2006. It is based on anti-nuke chants that sick bourgeois consumer old fart had been repeating since the 1970's.

The antinukes show up here in series, sometimes accompanied by hydrogen morons or battery morons as if the laws of thermodynamics were subject to wishful thinking. (They're not.)

In 2006, when "Solartopia" was predicted "by 2030," the concentration of the dangerous fossil fuel waste carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere was 384.45 ppm, the week beginning April 2, 2006.

Here, again, is the result, the one I care about, the one that matters to me:

April 05: 422.69 ppm
April 04: 422.74 ppm
April 03: 422.74 ppm
April 02: 422.54 ppm
April 01: 421.91 ppm
Last Updated: April 6, 2023

Recent Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2

It's the one thing that antinukes never mention, climate change.

We're just shy of 40 ppm of additional carbon dioxide in the planetary atmosphere while indifferent illiterate brats carried on for 17 years about a "solartopia" "by 2030" the whole fucking time.

Since 2006, when "Solartopia" soothsaying was selling books, an idiot writer to idiot readers, 17 years ago, about 120 million human beings have died from air pollution, while I had to sit around and listen to vapid crap about the disposal of reactor cores that have killed no one.

The difference between "Solartopia," and the Bible is nil. Both are faith based nonsense that values prophecy over reality.

Now, as for what "we" know, I think I made my opinion clear that antinukes don't get to tell me what I know. I work very, very, very, very hard to expand on what I know and as a result, I have come to the unshakable opinion, an earned opinion, that antinukes don't know a damned useful thing. I resent being included in any kind of "we" with this sort.

Antinukes like to act as if they're intellectually capable, but they are, in my observation, rather in Dunning Kruger space. They are not even well educated enough to understand what they obviously don't know. They have clearly never opened a fucking science book, or read a serious scientific paper, or had enough of a concern to even try to do either.

I assume, that since they don't ever mention climate change in any of the soothsaying chants about what is supposed to happen in ten years, soothsaying all about money, not the environment - although the money thing doesn't pan out, the highest priced electricity in Europe is German and Danish - and simply go on repeating the same fucking chants they offered in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, right up to 2023, they don't give a rat's ass about climate change.

I do.

I'm an old man, and I have no use for a particular antinuke who shows up here or elsewhere to take up the chants I've heard my entire adult life.

The assholes who cheered for Germany to shut it's allegedly "too dangerous" nuclear plants because "we don't need nuclear" have zero outrage about the Germans burning coal as they have all winter. They. Just. Don't. Give. A. Fuck.

As for flat screen TV's, and other consumer junk that so impresses anti-nukes, I think I've made clear that I am far more concerned about the lives of ten year old cobalt slaves than I am about the ability to watch Seinfeld reruns on a flat screen TV.

I don't give a fuck about flat screen TVs, particularly from someone who thinks we're going to mine the fuck out of Africa so Germans can try to make enough batteries to cover a month of Dunkelflaute, which I analyzed here:

he Number of Tesla Powerwalls Required That Would Address the Current German Dunkleflaute Event.

Now.

There are people who give a shit and there are people who don't. I'm proud to have a son who gives a shit. What he is doing is not easy. It's hard. He's working his ass off to achieve excellence in Engineering. It is unjust on some level that people should have to work so hard to save the planet on which indifferent, uneducated, amoral nickel and dime types sit around in front of crystal balls without a shred of insight, but I hope I have raised him to do what is good and right to balance those who just don't give a rat's ass about the future of this planet or the people who do and will live on it.

Have a wonderful evening.

April 6, 2023

'This shouldn't be happening': levels of banned CFCs rising

This came in on my Nature News Briefing News Feed:

‘This shouldn’t be happening’: levels of banned CFCs rising

By Katherine Bourzac, Nature News, April 3, 2023

Subtitle:

Researchers have detected increased emissions for five ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons.


It may or may not be open sourced, so here's an excerpt:

The Montreal Protocol, which banned most uses of ozone-destroying chemicals known as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and called for their global phase-out by 2010, has been a great success story: Earth’s ozone layer is projected to recover by the 2060s.

So atmospheric chemists were surprised to see a troubling signal in recent data. They found that the levels of five CFCs rose rapidly in the atmosphere from 2010 to 2020. Their results are published today in Nature Geoscience1.

“This shouldn’t be happening,” says Martin Vollmer, an atmospheric chemist at the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology in Dübendorf who helped to analyse data from an international network of CFC monitors. “We expect the opposite trend, we expect them to slowly go down.”

At current levels, these CFCs do not pose much threat to the ozone layer’s healing, said Luke Western, a chemist at the University of Bristol, UK, at an online press conference on 30 March. CFCs, once used as refrigerants and aerosols, can persist in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. Given that they are potent greenhouse gases, eliminating emissions of these CFCs will also have a positive impact on Earth’s climate. The collective annual warming effect of these five chemicals on the planet is equivalent to the emissions produced by a small country like Switzerland.

It’s highly likely that manufacturing plants are accidently releasing three of the chemicals — CFC-113a, CFC-114a and CFC-115 — while producing replacements for CFCs. When CFCs were phased out, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) were brought in as substitutes. But CFCs can crop up as unintended by-products during HFC manufacture. This accidental production is discouraged by the Montreal Protocol, but not prohibited by it.

“A lot of this probably boils down to the factory level,” Vollmer says, pointing out that HFC production is on the rise. “A factory can be run relatively clean or relatively dirty...”


The substitute HFCs are really no bargain; molecules with carbon fluorine bonds are highly persistent and are, where volatile, as is the case with HFCs, potent greenhouse gases in their own right.

The best sink for carbon fluorine bond molecules is ionizing radiation.

Have a nice day tomorrow.

April 4, 2023

Was there some stupid untrue thing you learned as a kid and believed into your adult life?

Mine:

1) My father told me that if you ever put milk in a beer glass, you would never get a head on the beer when your filled it afterwards. (I certainly should have known better, but somehow I actually believed that until I finally did the experiment.)

2) Until my early 20s, I believed that hot water freezes faster than cold water, that is, if you put hot water in the freezer, you will get ice faster. (I probably misinterpreted what my high school teacher must have told me, that hot water cools at a faster rate (degrees/minute), but obviously hot water must pass through exactly the same thermodynamic state.)

3) When I was in high school, I used to make ice in the refrigerator in the kitchen which was directly under my bedroom, and transport it up to my room to put in a swamp cooler by my window. Of course this added heat to the house. We didn't have air conditioning, but it used to amaze me that I was always covered by sweat when waking.

I certainly didn't absorb the laws of thermodynamics when I was in high school. I certainly felt like a dumb rube hick when I took PChem.

These are things about which I laugh at my young self.

April 2, 2023

DOE "Liftoff" Calls for 5 to 10 US Nuclear Plant Contracts by 2025.

This came into my ANS News feed:

Watch for it—Advanced nuclear “liftoff” needs 5–10 reactor contracts by 2025

The Department of Energy released Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear earlier this month. It is one of the first in a series of reports on clean energy technologies and the private and public investments needed to overcome hurdles to full-scale deployment. The report makes a clear case for investment in nuclear power and challenges potential investors and operators to move beyond the current “wait and see” stalemate and generate “a committed orderbook . . . for 5–10 deployments of at least one reactor design by 2025.”

Define “liftoff”: According to the Advanced Nuclear report, “‘liftoff’ refers to the economic and technical state at which the industry becomes self-sustaining in service of meeting U.S. decarbonization goals.”

The DOE says its Liftoff reports are “developed through extensive stakeholder engagement and a combination of system-level modeling and project-level financial modeling. . . . They do not reflect DOE official policy or strategic plans; they are a resource intended to inform decision-making across industry, investors, and the broader stakeholder community.”

Before we get into the details a few more definitions are needed. Useful (if overused) terms like “small modular reactor” and “advanced reactor” have been tailored to fit dozens of designs that may not have much in common. In this report, advanced reactors include “a range of proven and innovative technologies” in two categories: Gen III+ and Gen IV. Gen III+ designs are water cooled and fueled with low-enriched uranium, while Gen IV designs use “novel” fuels and coolants. Both Gen III+ and Gen IV reactors may be categorized as “large reactors (~1 GW), small modular reactors (~50–300 MW), and microreactors (50 MW or less).”

First steps for nuclear: Advanced nuclear developers must have “a committed orderbook, e.g., signed contracts, for 5–10 deployments of at least one reactor design by 2025 . . . to catalyze commercial liftoff in the U.S.” The report ventures to say that “given expressed U.S. utility risk tolerances, it is likely that the first design to reach a critical mass of orders may be a Gen III+ SMR, which could be followed in parallel or sequence by Gen IV reactors.”

The next step? Delivering those plants “on time and on budget (i.e., ±20%) will be essential for generating sustained demand and commercial momentum,” the report states. “While the estimated first of a kind (FOAK) cost of a well-executed nuclear construction project is ~$6,200 per kW, recent nuclear construction projects in the U.S. have had overnight capital costs over $10,000 per kW.”...


The Biden administration may not have given up on so called "renewable energy," but they are also very supportive of realistic efforts to address climate change.

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