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Quixote1818

Quixote1818's Journal
Quixote1818's Journal
April 29, 2020

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported

The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.

Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.

If the same level of under-reporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.

To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.

In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease. 

More: https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

April 29, 2020

Oxford scientists say a vaccine may be widely available by September


By CHARLIE D'AGATA CBS NEWS April 29, 2020, 6:30 AM

In the global race to find a vaccine, Oxford University just jumped way ahead of the pack. Human testing is already underway, and scientists say they're hopeful a coronavirus vaccine will be widely available by September.

Technology the lab had already developed in previous work on inoculations for other viruses, including a close relative of COVID-19, gave it a head start.

"Well personally, I have a high degree of confidence about this vaccine, because it's technology that I've used before," said Sarah Gilbert, a professor of vaccinology at the university.

The vaccine takes the coronavirus' genetic material and injects it into a common cold virus that has been neutralized so it cannot spread in people. The modified virus will mimic COVID-19, triggering the immune system to fight off the imposter and providing protection against the real thing.

The experimental vaccine has reportedly worked in protecting rhesus macaque monkeys that were exposed to heavy quantities of COVID-19.

In the human trials, 550 participants are given the vaccine, and another 550 receive a placebo.

More:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-university-scientists-september/?fbclid=IwAR3lUrNq-_MaIfGcfTyHk1TYNyR3i-BG4JqtQwSkdZCGlRcDBDcHQsUyCoI
April 29, 2020

Ex-Bush aide has chilling theory about Donald Trump's coronavirus strategy

LEE MORAN
Apr 29th 2020 10:09AM
An ex-speechwriter for former President George W. Bush on Tuesday argued that President Donald Trump is sacrificing the lives of other Americans to the coronavirus crisis in a “desperate” bid to save himself politically.

In a thread on Twitter, David Frum claimed reports the White House is now pivoting its pandemic messaging to the economy showed Trump is “consciously choosing to risk higher virus casualties” in the second quarter of 2020 “in hope of jolting the economy into revival in Q3 to save his re-election” in November.

“It’s a desperate gamble to save himself by sacrificing others,” wrote Frum, who is now a senior editor at The Atlantic, warning: “It’s also not very likely to work.”

Frum noted in a later tweet how “many leaders would be daunted by the human costs of Trump’s desperate re-election plan.”

More: https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/29/ex-bush-aide-has-chilling-theory-about-donald-trumps-coronavirus-strategy/24142457/

April 29, 2020

Huff Post: What Is Herd Immunity, And Can It Really Help Us Fight Coronavirus?

This paragraph can't be ignored so Sweden's route is an absolute no go for the US:

“To achieve herd immunity in the U.S., that would be close to 200 million cases and even with a low fatality rate of 0.5% ― which is probably the best estimate at present ― that would be 1 million fatalities in the U.S.,” Rossman said. “This is obviously not an acceptable risk and would definitely overwhelm the health system unless it was spread out over many years.”


By
Beth Krietsch
04/28/2020 05:45am EDT

There’s a lot of talk about how achieving herd immunity for COVID-19 is the key to reopening the economy during the current pandemic.

Put simply, this is when enough of a population becomes immune to a disease ― either because they’ve been vaccinated or because they’ve had the disease and recovered and developed immunity. As a result, the disease can no longer spread efficiently, and even those who are not immune to the disease are still protected from becoming ill. We’ve seen this with illnesses like polio and chickenpox that are now much rarer than they used to be.

A vaccine would make herd immunity possible, but we won’t have a COVID-19 vaccine for quite some time. So some people have floated the idea of purposefully allowing the population to get infected with the coronavirus as a way to build up herd immunity.

More: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/herd-immunity-fight-coronavirus_l_5ea6f25fc5b6dd3f908844c1

April 29, 2020

Coronavirus: Doctors Stunned By Damage Seen Inside The Body

His commentary about excess deaths at the beginning is really good.

April 29, 2020

California May Start School Year in Summer, Governor Newsom Says


Since there is supposed to be a second wave, it's probably best to get going early before the second wave starts to kick in come Oct. Nov. Something he doesn't mention. But we will need to see where cases are come July.

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