Chichiri
Chichiri's JournalFlorida (SurveyUSA): Clinton 61, Sanders 30 (Clinton +31).
By demographics, this state moderately favors Hillary; if the nation were split 50-50, she would get 54% of the vote in Florida.
Florida has 214 delegates, and votes on March 15.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 8, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,130, Sanders 499 (Clinton +631).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 677, Sanders 478 (Clinton +199).
Versus Targets: Clinton 677/596 (+81), Sanders 478/559 (-81).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.6% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 6 (ME): Sanders 16, Clinton 9 (Sanders +7).
Versus Targets: Sanders 16/15 (+1), Clinton 9/10 (-1).
Next Primary: March 8
Michigan, Mississippi: 166 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 86, Sanders 80.
Latest Polls
New York (Siena): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Idaho (UtahPolicy/Dan Jones): Sanders 47, Clinton 45 (Sanders +2).
Ohio (PPP): Clinton 56, Sanders 35 (Clinton +21).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Michigan: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.3.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.3, Sanders 36.1.
Ohio: Clinton 61.9, Sanders 35.3.
Florida: Clinton 66.1, Sanders 30.9.
Illinois: Clinton 66.0, Sanders 29.9.
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 390, Cruz 303, Rubio 153.
Michigan Projection: Trump 37, Kasich 24, Cruz 23.
Comments
Michigan and Mississippi vote today. Hillary's target for the day is somewhat higher than Bernie's, thanks to Mississippi. Once that target is made, however, it's up to Bernie to perform well in Michigan, where he's demographically favored, and where he's currently around 20 points behind.
Barring a catastrophe, the narrative going into March 15 will be that Hillary just won two states including Michigan. We then have five states on the 15th which, combined, will yield almost as many delegates as Super Tuesday. There is no data on Missouri, but the other four states all have Hillary ahead by very comfortable margins.
Many analysts are saying that the race is over, that Hillary truly is inevitable, that there's no chance that Bernie can catch up. Are they right? I personally am about 95% on that. After tonight and next week, I expect I'll either be able to ramp it up to 100%, or be forced to walk it back a little.
Remember, though, that it won't be based on how well Hillary does against Bernie, but on how well she does against her own targets. Hillary is +199 against Bernie, but +81 against her own target. This approach makes the race seem narrower than it is, which in turn should make Bernie supporters happy. But the virtue of it is, it doesn't matter how well how well one candidate or another is supposed to perform in coming states, because the targets take that into account. If Bernie is highly favored in a state like Washington, for instance, then his target is that much higher.
After March 15, twenty-six states will have voted. However far Bernie has fallen behind his own target at that time, he'll have twenty-four states in which to make it up.
But that's for next week. Let's see what happens tonight!
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.
Iditarod Update
Lance Mackey out of Rohn @ 18:54, Dallas Seavey @ 19:52, Aliy Zirkle @ 20:01.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 7, 2016
There's a GDP version of this at http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511435593 - please keep it kicked!
Reprinted from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com with permission of the author (me).
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,130, Sanders 499 (Clinton +631).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 677, Sanders 478 (Clinton +199).
Versus Targets: Clinton 677/596 (+81), Sanders 478/559 (-81).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.6% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 6 (ME): Sanders 16, Clinton 9 (Sanders +7).
Versus Targets: Sanders 16/15 (+1), Clinton 9/10 (-1).
Next Primary: March 8
Michigan, Mississippi: 166 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 86, Sanders 80.
Latest Polls
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 60, Sanders 36 (Clinton +24).
Michigan (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 57, Sanders 40 (Clinton +17).
Michigan (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 55, Sanders 44 (Clinton +11).
Michigan (Monmouth): Clinton 55, Sanders 42 (Clinton +13).
Michigan (Mitchell): Clinton 66, Sanders 29 (Clinton +37).
New York (Siena): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Idaho (UtahPolicy/Dan Jones): Sanders 47, Clinton 45 (Sanders +2).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Michigan: Clinton 60.2, Sanders 37.4.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.1, Sanders 14.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.1, Sanders 36.4.
Ohio: Clinton 60.4, Sanders 37.3.
Florida: Clinton 65.9, Sanders 31.1.
Illinois: Clinton 65.8, Sanders 30.1.
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 391, Cruz 304, Rubio 154.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Kasich 23, Cruz 20.
Comments
The pledged delegate numbers are probably going to be in a minor but constant state of flux from here on out, as states check and double-check and finalize their delegate counts. Thus you might see one candidate N delegates ahead one day, and N+3 delegates ahead the next, even though there has been no election since. Just one of the quirks of the technological age, friends.
Thanks to some such recalculating in Louisiana, the results of March 5 are now that Hillary and Bernie both hit their targets dead on, and so the versus-target numbers did not change. Meanwhile, Bernie pulled a little bit ahead of his target in Maine, winning the state 16-9, making him +1 versus target for the weekend. This may seem worrisome (or exciting, depending on who you're voting for!), but Bernie only has 31 states and some odd territories to make up ground. It doesn't matter how much the coming states favor him, because he has to make up ground against his own targets.
Even more polls for Michigan today -- only one more day! -- and also new polls for New York and Idaho.
(That's what I said: Idaho!?)
Remember that for the next week and a half or so, I'm going to posting results from the Iditarod sled dog race in Alaska, a race which I've followed since I was a kid. Why this instead of the pun of the day? Because it's my post! Puns will resume after the first finishers arrive in Nome.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.
Iditarod Update
Nicholas Petit into Rainy Pass at 8:22, Aliy Zirkle out of Finger Lake at 7:01.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 6, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,121, Sanders 481 (Clinton +640).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 670, Sanders 460 (Clinton +210).
Versus Targets: Clinton 670/586 (+84), Sanders 460/544 (-84).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.4% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 5 (KS, LA, NE): Clinton 59, Sanders 50 (Clinton +9).
Versus Targets: Clinton 59/57 (+2), Sanders 50/52 (-2).
Next Primary: TODAY
Maine: 25 delegates.
Targets: Clinton 10, Sanders 15.
Latest Polls
Michigan (ARG): Clinton 60, Sanders 36 (Clinton +24).
Michigan (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 57, Sanders 40 (Clinton +17).
Michigan (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 55, Sanders 44 (Clinton +11).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Michigan: Clinton 62.3, Sanders 35.2.*
Mississippi: Clinton 79.1, Sanders 14.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.1, Sanders 36.4.
Ohio: Clinton 60.4, Sanders 37.3.
Florida: Clinton 65.9, Sanders 31.1.
Illinois: Clinton 65.8, Sanders 30.1.
*does not include latest polls
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 391, Cruz 304, Rubio 125.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Kasich 23, Cruz 20.
Comments
Kansas went very well for Bernie yesterday: he exceeded his target by 4 delegates. In Louisiana, meanwhile, Hillary exceeded her target by 6, and in Nebraska both candidates hit their targets dead-on, so Hillary was +2 against target for the day. (If you prefer to count on your fingers, she was +9.)
Meanwhile, new polls out of Michigan show the race narrowing dramatically in that state. The 538 projection above does not take into account the NBC or CBS polls, which shows Bernie behind by as little as 11 points. Sadly, Michigan is not going to be the absolute blowout that Hillary fans were hoping for.
The fact remains, however, that she is poised to comfortably win a state that demographically favors Bernie; his target is 4 delegates above Hillary's. So barring a catastrophe, the day after tomorrow will see Hillary increase her lead on the track.
On the dark side, the pundits are saying to stick a fork in Rubio, but that Cruz actually has a shot at beating Trump. Make no mistake: Cruz is Trump, without the amusement factor (and with a maple leaf). The prospect of a Republican President is always cause for nervousness, but with Rubio gone from serious competition, the prospects are downright terrifying.
A few changes to be aware of. You may have noticed that I'm now counting the percentage of remaining pledged delegates that Hillary needs to secure the majority of pledged delegates. I've also discontinued the endorsement score tracker: realistically, it's not going to change much before the end of the race. If something big happens, like Liz Warren endorsing, I'll note it here.
One more thing: the Iditarod sled dog race begins today in Alaska! Many liberals don't approve of sled dog racing, but I have a soft spot for it, and have had since childhood. Those dogs are absolutely magnificent (and when a musher does mistreat his or her dogs, he or she should be thrown to the wolves). (Hey, is that a pun?) So from tomorrow until the end of the race, I'm going to post Iditarod results at the bottom.
(One more one more thing: the stork brought my wife and I a beautiful baby niece yesterday! Here's hoping she will never know a world without a woman President!)
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. Latest polls are taken from RealClearPolitics. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.
Pun of the Day
A musher who mistreats his dogs should be thrown to the wolves!
What do you mean, Hillary won Minnesota!?
Hillary's strengths are with minorities and moderates. Bernie's strengths are with hard-liberals and young folks. This means that some states obviously favor some candidates more than others -- but what's more, by looking at the actual demographics, we can actually put a number on that advantage. We can determine how many delegates from each state each candidate should win, if national polling is 50-50.
So for example, Bernie's advantage in Colorado was large enough that we would have expected him to pick up six delegates more than Hillary. Instead, however, he picked up ten more than Hillary. In this sense, he not only won Colorado, but he prevented Hillary from getting the number of delegates that she would have expected from that state.
Another example is New Hampshire: the demographics tell us that Bernie should have beaten Hillary by six delegates in that state. And that's exactly what happened. In this sense, although Bernie got more delegates in New Hampshire, as far as expectations were concerned it was a tie.
So what about Minnesota?
We're a mostly white, very liberal state with a large youth population and high voter turnout. So judging from the demographics, Bernie should have defeated Hillary by 17 delegates in the North Star State. He didn't. He beat her by 15. So in the sense that Hillary did better than expected here, and prevented Bernie from doing as well as expected, she won Minnesota.
I know it might seem counter-intuitive, but the math is what it is.
This is what I mean when I talk about targets. When I say that Hillary's target to date is 529, and Bernie's is 492, I mean this: we always knew that Hillary was going to do better than Bernie in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states, and that she would be ahead of him at this point. But more than that: we know, from looking at the demographics, how much better she would have done if voters across the country were split 50-50. If that were the case, then Hillary should be 37 delegates ahead of Bernie right now.
She's not. She's 197 delegates ahead.
When I say that Bernie is 80 delegates behind target, what I mean is this: We know that Bernie is going to fare better in most of the states after March 15. But in order to make up ground on Hillary, he needs to pick up 80 delegates more than we already expect him to do based on the demographics.
For example, Bernie is expected to win Kansas tonight. But we can quantify that expectation, and say that Bernie should win 19 delegates from Kansas, to Hillary's 14. If Bernie wins 20 delegates from Kansas, then he is one delegate over that state's target, and that 80-delegate deficit becomes 79. If he wins 21 delegates from Kansas, his deficit shrinks to 78, and so on. Similarly, if he only wins 18 delegates to Hillary's 15, his deficit increases to 81, and Hillary's surplus over target increases to 81. In that sense, Hillary will have "won" Kansas, even though she took fewer delegates.
Similarly, if Bernie can pick up more than 18 of Louisiana's 51 delegates tonight, he will have "won" Louisiana, even though he will walk away with fewer delegates than Hillary.
One more thing: Of the 15 states and 1 territory that have voted so far, even though Bernie took home more delegates in five states, he actually "won" only three of them (VT, CO, OK), all by small margins and "tied" in a fourth (NH). Hillary has "won" everything else, mostly by large margins. And I use quotation marks to signify that this sense of the word "won" is different from everyday use, not that it is unreal or less real. Quite the contrary.
So if you're watching the results tonight, Bernie's target numbers are 19 in Kansas, 18 in Louisiana, and 15 in Kansas. He also has a target of 15 in Maine, which votes tomorrow.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 5, 2016
Taken from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/ with permission of the author (me). As always, please kick this thread so that non-night-owls can see it. 
Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,058, Sanders 431 (Clinton +627).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 609, Sanders 412 (Clinton +197).
Versus Targets: Clinton 609/529 (+80), Sanders 412/492 (-80).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.8% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
Super Tuesday: Clinton 518, Sanders 347 (Clinton +171).
Versus Targets: Clinton 518/453 (+65), Sanders 347/412 (-65).
Next Primary: March 5
Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska: 109 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 57, Sanders 52.
Latest Polls
Florida (University of North Florida): Clinton 54, Sanders 24 (Clinton +30).
Mississippi (Magellan): Clinton 65, Sanders 11 (Clinton +54).
Louisiana (Magellan): Clinton 61, Sanders 14 (Clinton +47).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Louisiana: Clinton 75.0, Sanders 17.9.
Michigan: Clinton 64.0, Sanders 33.3.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.6, Sanders 35.8
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.7.
Florida: Clinton 66.3, Sanders 30.7.
Illinois: Clinton 66.2, Sanders 29.7.
Current Endorsement Score
Clinton 478, Sanders 5.
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 338, Cruz 236, Rubio 112.
Michigan Projection: Trump 39, Cruz 21, Rubio 20.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 168, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.
Comments
Happy March 5th! Kansas, Nebraska, and Louisiana vote today, Maine tomorrow.
Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine are all states that demographically favor Bernie, and are all "black box" states, meaning there are no recent polls or projections. So far Bernie is two for two in such states, so my guess is that he will win all three by decent margins. Indeed, he may win more delegates than Hillary will win in Louisiana -- she is projected to win there by a landslide, but only 51 delegates are up for grabs in the Bayou State. So Bernie might finish the weekend with a notch taken out of his 197-delegate deficit.
Then, of course, come Mississippi and Michigan on Tuesday.
Thanks to everyone who sent me well wishes during my recovery from a brief but nasty stomach bug. I'm still recovering, and taking it easy for a while, but it probably gets better from here.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination, accounting for demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.
Pun of the Day
He's a pessimist, which means his blood type is B-negative!
One Word . . .
The six most delegate-rich states still to come are Califonia (475), New York (247), Florida (214), Pennsylvania (189), Illinois (156), and Ohio (143). Three of these states all vote on March 15, and Hillary is projected to win all of them by large margins. If these margins hold for the next couple weeks, she will take:
* 87 delegates from Ohio, 31 more than Bernie.
* 103 delegates from Illinois, 50 more than Bernie.
* 142 delegates from Florida, 70 more than Bernie.
So from these three states alone, Hillary's lead will expand from 197 delegates to 348 delegates. It is mathematically impossible for her to lose these delegates from Pennsylvania or New York alone, and Bernie would require 87% of the vote in California to make it up. (The latest poll from California is a couple months old, but it showed Clinton 46, Sanders 35.)
After March 15th most of the remaining states do favor Bernie -- but by small numbers. 41-34 delegates in Arizona, 19-14 in Utah, 13-12 in Hawaii, 96-93 in Pennsylvania, and so on. Only Oregon, Wisconsin, and Washington favor him by double digits.
Here's the thing. If Bernie battles Hillary to a tie in all the states where she is favored (including Louisiana, Florida, Illinois, etc.), and wins all of his favored states by the very margins which give him the advantage, he will make up 122 delegates on his 197-delegate deficit.
Hillary wins.
If Hillary takes Ohio, Illinois and Florida by the margins projected above, but is kept to a tie in every other state where she's favored (although Ohio actually favors Bernie by 1 delegate), and Bernie wins all his other favored states by DOUBLE the margin of his advantage, he will make up 242 delegates on his 348-delegate deficit.
Hillary wins.
If, just for fun, we give him an additional 100 delegates in California, that's 342 delegates on his 348-delegate deficit.
Hillary wins.
And no, there will be no indictment. Filter right-wing and pro-Bernie sites out of your Google and research it for yourself. It's a non-issue.
Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President. End of story.
No State of the Primary tomorrow
... unless my guinea pigs manage to perfect miniaturization technology and get their submarine into my blood stream to destroy those pesky viruses.
And yes, they're working on it. But without opposable thumbs, well...
Hope to be back for Louisiana Day on Saturday.
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 3, 2016
Current and past editions of SotP can always be found at its website, http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/
As always, please keep this thread kicked so that non-night-owls can see it.
Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,052, Sanders 427 (Clinton +625).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 596, Sanders 399 (Clinton +197).
Versus Targets: Clinton 596/529 (+67), Sanders 399/492 (-93).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Latest Results
Super Tuesday: Clinton 505, Sanders 334 (Clinton +171); 26 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 505/453 (+52), Sanders 334/412 (-78).
Next Primary: March 5
Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska: 109 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 57, Sanders 52.
Latest Polls
Florida (University of North Florida): Clinton 54, Sanders 24 (Clinton +30).
Mississippi (Magellan): Clinton 65, Sanders 11 (Clinton +54).
Louisiana (Magellan): Clinton 61, Sanders 14 (Clinton +47).
Current Polls-Plus Projections
Louisiana: Clinton 75.0, Sanders 17.9.
Michigan: Clinton 61.2, Sanders 35.8.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.5, Sanders 36.0.
Ohio: Clinton 60.8, Sanders 36.9.
Florida: Clinton 67.4, Sanders 29.2.
Illinois: Clinton 66.1, Sanders 29.8.
Current Endorsement Score
Clinton 478, Sanders 5.
Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 316, Cruz 226, Rubio 106.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Rubio 24, Cruz 16.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 157, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.
Comments
Not much to say until March 5th, except that we still don't have all the Super Tuesday delegates allocated. Numbers are starting to come in for the rest of the southern states, however, and it seems clear that Hillary is set to beat her target in these states as well. I'll probably have more to say about targets, and what beating them or not beating them means. Suffice it to say, for now, that Bernie has only really "won" three states, Vermont, Oklahoma, and Colorado, and has tied in a fourth, New Hampshire. Hillary has won every other state in the sense that she beat the target number that she was expected to hit, given the demographic skew of the particular states.
How This Works
All information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except for the total delegate count, which is taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).
The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The endorsement score refers to
Pun of the Day
I didn't understand the math, so the teacher summed it up for me!
"Hillary is only winning the red states! They don't do us any good!"
2) Obama won "the Republican states" the Sanders fans are complaining about now. And well, guess where he is now? Where we want to be in January. Aka, the White House.
3) We won Massachusetts (deep blue) ... and Sanders won Oklahoma (deep red). lol.
4) HRC is leading Michigan and Illinois (fivethirtyeight.com)
5) The primaries are the only time that Dems in red states have a real voice about such an important issue at the federal level. To dismiss the whole state because it usually goes red is to dismiss the huge number of Democratic voters and their voices in those states about who they want as a leader and what their interests are.
And so on and so forth. From reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/hillaryclinton/comments/48obk3/sanders_fans_trying_to_downvote_to_push_out_the/
Profile Information
Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PMNumber of posts: 4,667
