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Chichiri
Chichiri's Journal
Chichiri's Journal
April 5, 2016
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,264, Sanders 1,040 (Clinton +224).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,264/1,266 (-2), Sanders 1,040/1,038 (+2).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: TODAY
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
As you've probably figured out, I'm not posting State of the Primary every day. This is partly because of real life stuff, and partly because the race doesn't always change from day to day, and I don't always have stuff to talk about.
Today, however, I can talk about Wisconsin. Bernie's target is 50 delegates out of 86, which is a popular vote spread of +15. FiveThirtyEight's projected vote spread is +3. Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, but it's not enough anymore just to win states; his long-forseen successes over this mid-March to mid-April period has not changed that.
There are, as noted earlier, only four caucuses left in the race, and they total less than a hundred delegates. There are three fully open primaries, including today's primary in Wisconsin, and they total 190 delegates. Bernie cannot catch up with these states alone. As Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook recently noted, Bernie needs about 60% of the vote in the four remaining delegate-rich states -- New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey. The former two are closed primaries, the latter two are semi-closed. All have diverse populations.
If we seem a bit more depressed and worried these days, if the prediction markets seem just a little bit down, if Bernie seems to be getting more than his share of headlines these days, it's because we're in the same position now that Bernie was at the beginning of March: the pendulum, obeying the inevitable laws of nature, is swinging on the other person's side. The difference is that Hillary built up a 320-delegate lead when it swung to her, and will probably lose only 120 while it swings to Bernie. Then it's New York and beyond.
So Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, as we have foreseen (although for a while there it looked like there may be an upset). Our job is to do what Bernie couldn't or wouldn't in the south: cut into that delegate margin as much as possible. Let's see how we do.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I know how to juggle; I just don't have the balls to do it!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 5, 2016
63 Days to California, 14 Days to New York.Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,264, Sanders 1,040 (Clinton +224).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,264/1,266 (-2), Sanders 1,040/1,038 (+2).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: TODAY
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
As you've probably figured out, I'm not posting State of the Primary every day. This is partly because of real life stuff, and partly because the race doesn't always change from day to day, and I don't always have stuff to talk about.
Today, however, I can talk about Wisconsin. Bernie's target is 50 delegates out of 86, which is a popular vote spread of +15. FiveThirtyEight's projected vote spread is +3. Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, but it's not enough anymore just to win states; his long-forseen successes over this mid-March to mid-April period has not changed that.
There are, as noted earlier, only four caucuses left in the race, and they total less than a hundred delegates. There are three fully open primaries, including today's primary in Wisconsin, and they total 190 delegates. Bernie cannot catch up with these states alone. As Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook recently noted, Bernie needs about 60% of the vote in the four remaining delegate-rich states -- New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey. The former two are closed primaries, the latter two are semi-closed. All have diverse populations.
If we seem a bit more depressed and worried these days, if the prediction markets seem just a little bit down, if Bernie seems to be getting more than his share of headlines these days, it's because we're in the same position now that Bernie was at the beginning of March: the pendulum, obeying the inevitable laws of nature, is swinging on the other person's side. The difference is that Hillary built up a 320-delegate lead when it swung to her, and will probably lose only 120 while it swings to Bernie. Then it's New York and beyond.
So Bernie will probably win Wisconsin, as we have foreseen (although for a while there it looked like there may be an upset). Our job is to do what Bernie couldn't or wouldn't in the south: cut into that delegate margin as much as possible. Let's see how we do.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I know how to juggle; I just don't have the balls to do it!
April 2, 2016
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,266, Sanders 1,038 (Clinton +228).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,266/1,266 (+0), Sanders 1,038/1,038 (+0).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
Let's have a closer look at the new targets in April. In Wisconsin, Bernie needs 50 targets to Hillary's 36. He'll probably win Wisconsin, which is an open primary, but not by the 15 points he needs; it's going to be close either way. Wyoming is one of the four remaining caucus states, and he has a very good chance to nab the 57 points he needs.
How about New York, which Bernie needs to win by 4 points? They do like Bernie in New York, but it's Hillary's home state, and it's a closed primary. This means only Democrats can vote -- and the last day to register as a Democrat was March 25, which means there are going to be a lot of dismayed Bernie supporting independents showing up. It also has early voting, which favors Hillary. I think Hillary will win New York, but I don't dare speculate by how much, lest I jinx it.
Then the northeastern states. Four closed primaries and one semi-closed. Bernie is probably at least competitive in all five states, but he needs +7 in Pennsylvania, +13 in Connecticut, and +33 in Rhode Island. His targets are in the negatives in Maryland and Delaware, the last two states of the primary for which this is the case.
My prediction is that Bernie will finish April in a somewhat worse position than he started -- and with only a handful of states left to catch up.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
(From Treant) What do you call a group of birds who stick together? A Vel-crow!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 2, 2016
66 Days to California, 17 Days to New York.Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1,011 (Clinton +701).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,266, Sanders 1,038 (Clinton +228).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton 1,266/1,266 (+0), Sanders 1,038/1,038 (+0).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 50, Clinton 36.
Comments
Let's have a closer look at the new targets in April. In Wisconsin, Bernie needs 50 targets to Hillary's 36. He'll probably win Wisconsin, which is an open primary, but not by the 15 points he needs; it's going to be close either way. Wyoming is one of the four remaining caucus states, and he has a very good chance to nab the 57 points he needs.
How about New York, which Bernie needs to win by 4 points? They do like Bernie in New York, but it's Hillary's home state, and it's a closed primary. This means only Democrats can vote -- and the last day to register as a Democrat was March 25, which means there are going to be a lot of dismayed Bernie supporting independents showing up. It also has early voting, which favors Hillary. I think Hillary will win New York, but I don't dare speculate by how much, lest I jinx it.
Then the northeastern states. Four closed primaries and one semi-closed. Bernie is probably at least competitive in all five states, but he needs +7 in Pennsylvania, +13 in Connecticut, and +33 in Rhode Island. His targets are in the negatives in Maryland and Delaware, the last two states of the primary for which this is the case.
My prediction is that Bernie will finish April in a somewhat worse position than he started -- and with only a handful of states left to catch up.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
(From Treant) What do you call a group of birds who stick together? A Vel-crow!
April 1, 2016
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Sanders 1,712, Clinton 1004 (Sanders +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Sanders 1,266, Clinton 1,038 (Sanders +228).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 1,266/1,266 (+0), Clinton 1,038/1,038 (+0).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Sanders needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Clinton 104, Sanders 38 (Clinton +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Clinton 50, Sanders 36.
Comments
I know, it's a pretty obvious April Fool joke, and my only excuse is sheer laziness. But when you think about it, for all their talk about momentum and fuzzy math and indictments and feeling the Bern and blah blah blah, can we honestly believe that Bernie supporters wouldn't KILL to have the candidates' situations reversed?
How This Works
#feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern
Pun Of The Day
Feel the Bern! (Get it? Bern, burn? LOL!!)
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 1, 2016
67 Days to CaliforniaDelegate Count
Total Delegates: Sanders 1,712, Clinton 1004 (Sanders +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Sanders 1,266, Clinton 1,038 (Sanders +228).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 1,266/1,266 (+0), Clinton 1,038/1,038 (+0).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Sanders needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Clinton 104, Sanders 38 (Clinton +66)
Versus 3/30 Targets: N/A
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Clinton 50, Sanders 36.
Comments
I know, it's a pretty obvious April Fool joke, and my only excuse is sheer laziness. But when you think about it, for all their talk about momentum and fuzzy math and indictments and feeling the Bern and blah blah blah, can we honestly believe that Bernie supporters wouldn't KILL to have the candidates' situations reversed?
How This Works
#feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern #feelthebern
Pun Of The Day
Feel the Bern! (Get it? Bern, burn? LOL!!)
March 29, 2016
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1037 (Clinton +230).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174½ (+92½), Sanders 1037/1129½ (-128½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.
Comments
Where do we stand today compared to where we stood in 2008?
Because the calendars and the number of delegates are so different between the two years, there are a few different ways to make the comparison. If we look at the percentage of delegates so far allocated, for example, which is about 57%, then we're at the same place as February 5, 2008, the end of Super Tuesday. (I know, there were a LOT of states that day!) On that day, Obama's lead over Hillary was 20 delegates.
That "20" doesn't tell the full story, though. Because there were 3,410 delegates up for grabs in 2008, as opposed to 4,051 today, we can adjust for "delegate inflation." So in today's delegates, his lead would be 24 delegates.
If we look at the number of contests so far held, 35, then we're in the same place as February 10, 2008, the day that Maine voted. On that day, Obama's lead was 75 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, that's 89 delegates.
If we look at the actual date, March 28, then we're at the point in 2008 where all but 10 contests have been decided. On that day, Obama's lead was 148 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, 176 delegates.
Obama's maximum lead over Hillary at any time was 151 delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 180 delegates. And at the end of it all, Obama's lead was 106 pledged delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 124 delegates.
At present, Hillary's lead over Bernie is 230 delegates.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
This book on antigravity is impossible to put down!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 29, 2016
70 Days to CaliforniaDelegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1037 (Clinton +230).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174½ (+92½), Sanders 1037/1129½ (-128½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.
Comments
Where do we stand today compared to where we stood in 2008?
Because the calendars and the number of delegates are so different between the two years, there are a few different ways to make the comparison. If we look at the percentage of delegates so far allocated, for example, which is about 57%, then we're at the same place as February 5, 2008, the end of Super Tuesday. (I know, there were a LOT of states that day!) On that day, Obama's lead over Hillary was 20 delegates.
That "20" doesn't tell the full story, though. Because there were 3,410 delegates up for grabs in 2008, as opposed to 4,051 today, we can adjust for "delegate inflation." So in today's delegates, his lead would be 24 delegates.
If we look at the number of contests so far held, 35, then we're in the same place as February 10, 2008, the day that Maine voted. On that day, Obama's lead was 75 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, that's 89 delegates.
If we look at the actual date, March 28, then we're at the point in 2008 where all but 10 contests have been decided. On that day, Obama's lead was 148 delegates. Adjusted for inflation, 176 delegates.
Obama's maximum lead over Hillary at any time was 151 delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 180 delegates. And at the end of it all, Obama's lead was 106 pledged delegates -- adjusted for inflation, 124 delegates.
At present, Hillary's lead over Bernie is 230 delegates.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
This book on antigravity is impossible to put down!
March 28, 2016
Delegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1,037 (Clinton +230).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174½ (+92½), Sanders 1037/1129½ (-92½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.
Comments
Hillary got licked on Saturday; there's really no way to spin it, except to say we knew it was coming. She was up against a "perfect storm" of conditions: open caucuses in mostly white states with affluent liberals.
Even so, she could have performed better, as she did in Iowa by putting a laser-sharp focus on that state before its election. But she chose to save her money, spending only $54,000 in Washington. Bernie outspent her by a factor of 26 in that state. So he won big. You'd still rather have Hillary's numbers today than Bernie's numbers, but Bernie took a big step toward her on Saturday.
Now that's done. It's behind us, and we turn our attention to the remainder of the primary. Here's a quick look ahead:
Of the 22 contests remaining, 4 are caucuses, 9 are open, semi-open, or semi-closed primaries, and 9 are closed primaries.
Bernie is 10 for 14 in caucuses. The caucuses that remain give a total of 88 delegates.
Bernie is 4 for 17 in open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries (and there's really not a huge difference here, except that semis keep out Republicans). The open and semi-* primaries that remain give a total of 882 delegates.
Bernie is 1 for 4 in closed primaries, the one being Democrats Abroad. The closed primaries that remain give a total of 759 delegates.
The next state to vote, Wisconsin, is an open primary. I'm still doing my best to avoid sharing polling data and projections, but let's just say that we can win it, and should pour our hearts into volunteering in and for the Badger state over the next 8 days.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
A Bernie supporter tried to annoy me with bird puns, but toucan play at that game!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 28, 2016
71 Days to CaliforniaDelegate Count
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,712, Sanders 1004 (Clinton +742).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,267, Sanders 1,037 (Clinton +230).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,267/1,174½ (+92½), Sanders 1037/1129½ (-92½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.5% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 26 (538): Sanders 104, Clinton 38 (Sanders +66)
Versus Targets: Sanders 104/81 (+23), Clinton 38/61 (-23).
Next Primary: April 5
Wisconsin: 86 delegates.
Targets: Sanders 48, Clinton 38.
Comments
Hillary got licked on Saturday; there's really no way to spin it, except to say we knew it was coming. She was up against a "perfect storm" of conditions: open caucuses in mostly white states with affluent liberals.
Even so, she could have performed better, as she did in Iowa by putting a laser-sharp focus on that state before its election. But she chose to save her money, spending only $54,000 in Washington. Bernie outspent her by a factor of 26 in that state. So he won big. You'd still rather have Hillary's numbers today than Bernie's numbers, but Bernie took a big step toward her on Saturday.
Now that's done. It's behind us, and we turn our attention to the remainder of the primary. Here's a quick look ahead:
Of the 22 contests remaining, 4 are caucuses, 9 are open, semi-open, or semi-closed primaries, and 9 are closed primaries.
Bernie is 10 for 14 in caucuses. The caucuses that remain give a total of 88 delegates.
Bernie is 4 for 17 in open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries (and there's really not a huge difference here, except that semis keep out Republicans). The open and semi-* primaries that remain give a total of 882 delegates.
Bernie is 1 for 4 in closed primaries, the one being Democrats Abroad. The closed primaries that remain give a total of 759 delegates.
The next state to vote, Wisconsin, is an open primary. I'm still doing my best to avoid sharing polling data and projections, but let's just say that we can win it, and should pour our hearts into volunteering in and for the Badger state over the next 8 days.
How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, the total delegate count is taken from the AP, the total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times, and all other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
A Bernie supporter tried to annoy me with bird puns, but toucan play at that game!
March 25, 2016
You know what's really lousy about the climate here on DU?
It's pushing us to the right.
I am in favor of tuition free, or at least reduced tuition, college. I am in favor of universal health care. I am certainly in favor of investing in infrastructure, youth jobs, and clean energy. And I'm in favor of making the rich pay for most of this (in fact I don't think Bernie's plan goes far enough in this regard).
But rather than point out that real change happens incrementally, that revolution is nigh impossible and that the cost of trying is too high, which they simply won't accept because reasons, I find myself looking for reasons to say that tuition free college is a bad idea, that investing in infrastructure costs too much, that we're just not ready for single payer healthcare. Not because I really believe these things, but because the Bernie supporters are so damn infuriating that I want to take them down a peg however I possibly can. And then I find myself kinda-sorta believing these things. I find myself farther to the right than when I began.
I'm sure I'm not alone here.
This is why the Bernie supporters either need to become way more civil than they are, or they need to go. This is also why we Hillary supporters need to examine our own behavior for incivility, to keep our retaliatory impulses in check, and to work toward unity by setting an example. Democratic Underground exists to support Democrats, and there are far more Democrats in our numbers than in theirs, per capita. But if we can't be civil in the face of their civility, then we should be the ones to go.
This starts with me. I've been very combative in GDP lately, and have probably pushed Bernie supporters reflexively farther away from unity. My reasoning is that they're never going to be interested in unity anyway. But what if that's not true? What if they will respond better to simple statements of facts combined with civility and respect for their positions? I'm not sure I know how to do it at this point, but would it harm me to try?
But more to the point: if we could adopt this model of behavior, would the majority of Bernie supporters reciprocate?
I do think that they should bear the lion's share of responsibility here, and I do blame them for this breakdown in relations. It's obvious that they're focused on Hillary while we're focused on policy (although there are notable exceptions on both sides). As a result, while we're pushing them farther away from Hillary, they're pushing us farther away from the left. It may not be what they intend, but it is the inevitable result of their actions.
So for the time being, "in the face of their civility" is a moot point, and we have no reason to go anywhere.
But suppose they did clean up their act. If there's a chance of that happening, then the best way to bring it about is to set a model for behavior for them to emulate. But I don't know if we can, and I don't know if they will.
Just so I'm not misunderstood, however, this doesn't free us from the responsibility of keeping ourselves civil. Let us set an example by respecting the Bernie supporters as people, by focusing on policy and qualifications, by keeping our tone moderated, and by refusing to engage if we don't think we can do that. Let us do these things even if Bernie supporters do not reciprocate. To be sure, we should call on them to do so, but their acting like jerks should not free us to act like jerks.
And let us remember that we are all progressives, and we all want pretty much the same things, even if Bernie supporters don't acknowledge this. Let's not let our anger and our reflex reactions push us to the right. We do that, the Republicans win.
Even if it doesn't improve the climate, even if the silliness on DU continues until Hillary clinches the nomination and the admins finally clamp down, we'll be better people, and better progressives, for it.
Just a few idle thoughts for Friday Afternoon. Hope it's worth something.
March 24, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,690, Sanders 946 (Clinton +744).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 920 (Clinton +303).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,223/1,113½ (+109½), Sanders 920/1048½ (-128½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15: Sanders 73, Clinton 55 (Sanders +18); 3 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Sanders 73/74 (-1), Clinton 55/57 (-2).
Next Primary: March 26
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.
Comments
FiveThirtyEight's allocated delegate count is being wonky again, and I'm sick of retroactive calculations, so I'm using the New York Times for both total and individual pledged delegate counts. This will mean the count is different than yesterday, but it should only go up on both sides. Since allocation data is always coming in these days, these counts might change daily (so be sure to read every day!).
The race will continue to narrow at least until Wisconsin, more likely until New York, and quite possibly until April 26 when five northeastern states vote. (I can already see the advertising for "Northeastern Tuesday." Better than "Super Tuesday 6," I guess.) This Saturday, of course, will be a very good day for Bernie; Hillary's job is simply to keep the margin of victory as low as she can. You can help her -- donate, make phone calls, canvas, whatever you can do. Every delegate counts.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
Somebody wants me to use decimals instead of fractions. They have a point!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 24, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,690, Sanders 946 (Clinton +744).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,223, Sanders 920 (Clinton +303).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,223/1,113½ (+109½), Sanders 920/1048½ (-128½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15: Sanders 73, Clinton 55 (Sanders +18); 3 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Sanders 73/74 (-1), Clinton 55/57 (-2).
Next Primary: March 26
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.
Comments
FiveThirtyEight's allocated delegate count is being wonky again, and I'm sick of retroactive calculations, so I'm using the New York Times for both total and individual pledged delegate counts. This will mean the count is different than yesterday, but it should only go up on both sides. Since allocation data is always coming in these days, these counts might change daily (so be sure to read every day!).
The race will continue to narrow at least until Wisconsin, more likely until New York, and quite possibly until April 26 when five northeastern states vote. (I can already see the advertising for "Northeastern Tuesday." Better than "Super Tuesday 6," I guess.) This Saturday, of course, will be a very good day for Bernie; Hillary's job is simply to keep the margin of victory as low as she can. You can help her -- donate, make phone calls, canvas, whatever you can do. Every delegate counts.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. The total and individual pledged delegate counts are taken from the New York Times. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
Somebody wants me to use decimals instead of fractions. They have a point!
March 23, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,681, Sanders 937 (Clinton +744).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,233, Sanders 929 (Clinton +304).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,233/1,113½ (+119½), Sanders 929/1048½ (-119½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15: Sanders 74, Clinton 57 (Sanders +17).
Versus Targets: Sanders 74/74 (+0), Clinton 57/57 (+0).
Next Primary: March 26
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.
Comments
Bernie won the night last night, his blowout wins in Idaho and Utah more than cancelling out Hillary's quite comfortable win in Arizona. As you can see by the targets, in the end both candidates performed exactly as the demographics predicted they would.
Which is not good news for Bernie. He needs to drastically overshoot his targets in order to stand a chance. And the pool of available delegates is shrinking: despite taking 17 more delegates than Hillary yesterday, his percentage of remaining delegates needed went up by a tenth of a percent. He has 21 states and 4 territories left to make up this difference.
For the next few weeks -- possibly until Wisconsin, more likely until New York -- there will be no convincing Bernie supporters of the necessity of unity.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I don't care for perchloroethyline, and I don't like glycol ether!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 23, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,681, Sanders 937 (Clinton +744).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,233, Sanders 929 (Clinton +304).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,233/1,113½ (+119½), Sanders 929/1048½ (-119½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15: Sanders 74, Clinton 57 (Sanders +17).
Versus Targets: Sanders 74/74 (+0), Clinton 57/57 (+0).
Next Primary: March 26
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.
Comments
Bernie won the night last night, his blowout wins in Idaho and Utah more than cancelling out Hillary's quite comfortable win in Arizona. As you can see by the targets, in the end both candidates performed exactly as the demographics predicted they would.
Which is not good news for Bernie. He needs to drastically overshoot his targets in order to stand a chance. And the pool of available delegates is shrinking: despite taking 17 more delegates than Hillary yesterday, his percentage of remaining delegates needed went up by a tenth of a percent. He has 21 states and 4 territories left to make up this difference.
For the next few weeks -- possibly until Wisconsin, more likely until New York -- there will be no convincing Bernie supporters of the necessity of unity.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
I don't care for perchloroethyline, and I don't like glycol ether!
March 22, 2016
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,630, Sanders 870 (Clinton +760).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,176, Sanders 855 (Clinton +321).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,176/1,056½ (+119½), Sanders 855/974½ (-119½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6½ (+2½), Clinton 4/6½ (-2½).
Next Primary: TODAY
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
Happy Arizona Day! (The media is calling it Western Tuesday, but to hell with that, I'm calling it Arizona Day.)
Bernie is currently 1,171 delegates shy of the nomination. He needs 58.0% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
A total of 131 delegates are up for grabs from today's three states. Demographically, Bernie is expected to win 74 of them, or 56.5%. If he does this, he will gain 17 delegates on Hillary, and will need 58.1% of all remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. So his job actually gets harder if he performs as per his demographic advantage.
If he outperforms expectations, and wins, let's say, 85 delegates (or 64.9%), he will gain 39 delegates on Hillary, and will need only 57.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
On the other hand, if he ties with Hillary -- let's say he wins 66 to Hillary's 65 -- then obviously he gains only one delegate on Hillary, and will need 58.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
Either way, after today the pool of contests, which started with 50 states and 7 territories (including Democrats Abroad) will be down to 21 states and 4 territories.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
If you Russia round and Ukraine your neck, don't Crimea river!
STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 22, 2016
Delegate CountTotal Delegates: Clinton 1,630, Sanders 870 (Clinton +760).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,176, Sanders 855 (Clinton +321).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,176/1,056½ (+119½), Sanders 855/974½ (-119½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.1% of remaining pledged delegates.
Latest Results
March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6½ (+2½), Clinton 4/6½ (-2½).
Next Primary: TODAY
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.
Comments
Happy Arizona Day! (The media is calling it Western Tuesday, but to hell with that, I'm calling it Arizona Day.)
Bernie is currently 1,171 delegates shy of the nomination. He needs 58.0% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
A total of 131 delegates are up for grabs from today's three states. Demographically, Bernie is expected to win 74 of them, or 56.5%. If he does this, he will gain 17 delegates on Hillary, and will need 58.1% of all remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. So his job actually gets harder if he performs as per his demographic advantage.
If he outperforms expectations, and wins, let's say, 85 delegates (or 64.9%), he will gain 39 delegates on Hillary, and will need only 57.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
On the other hand, if he ties with Hillary -- let's say he wins 66 to Hillary's 65 -- then obviously he gains only one delegate on Hillary, and will need 58.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
Either way, after today the pool of contests, which started with 50 states and 7 territories (including Democrats Abroad) will be down to 21 states and 4 territories.
How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.
Pun Of The Day
If you Russia round and Ukraine your neck, don't Crimea river!
March 22, 2016
A few metrics for "Western Tuesday."
Bernie is currently 1,171 delegates shy of the nomination. He needs 58.0% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
A total of 131 delegates are up for grabs tomorrow. Demographically, Bernie is expected to win 74 of them, or 56.5%. If he does this, he will gain 17 delegates on Hillary (who is currently ahead by 321 delegates), and will need 58.1% of all remaining delegates in order to win the nomination. So his job actually gets harder if he performs as per his demographic advantage.
If he outperforms expectations, and wins, let's say, 85 delegates (or 64.9%), he will gain 39 delegates on Hillary, and will need only 57.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
On the other hand, if he ties with Hillary -- let's say he wins 66 to Hillary's 65 -- then obviously he gains only one delegate on Hillary, and will need 58.5% of all remaining pledged delegates to win.
Either way, after tomorrow the pool of contests, which started with 50 states and 7 territories (including Democrats Abroad) will be down to 21 states and 4 territories.
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