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morningfog

morningfog's Journal
morningfog's Journal
March 31, 2016

How does one immediately identify "Bernie people" from a stage in a crowded auditorium?

What made it possible for Hillary to immediately identify the protesters/hecklers as Bernie people?

Is there any video or pics of the women who chanted at the rally?

Were they wearing Bernie gear or holding Bernie signs?

Maybe they were Bernie supporters. I simply haven't seen any evidence yet and wonder how Hillary instantly knew they were "Bernie people."

March 31, 2016

As a Bernie supporter, I would like narrow the broad brush with which we are painted.

Like with any collective body, the actions and beliefs of some cannot be imparted to the many or the all. It is my opinion that much of the discourse on DU is tainted by an assumption that an argument set forth by a supporter of a candidate or position applies to all who are similarly aligned. This results in a poster's points being negated or criticism based on a different person's position. Instead of listening to the points being made and responding accordingly, the response all too often brings up past and unrelated issues. It distracts the discussion and gets it stuck re-fighting a fight in which the original poster may have never been involved.

In this respect, I speak only for myself as everyone else here speaks for themselves. And I would like to counter some common assumptions imputed to Bernie supporters as a whole.

1- FBI Investigation - I am almost certain that Hillary will not be indicted and I certainly hope she is not. That is not how I would want Bernie to secure the nomination and it would only be a disaster for the entire party, including Bernie, in the fall. Regardless, the FBI investigation and the fact that at least two federal judges have found at least some evidence of bad faith on the part of the State Dept. are issues that will continue to harm Hillary and is a continued liability for Democrats if she is our eventual nominee. I think denying it, ignoring it or dismissing it as the result of right wing machinations is not helpful. While right wing witch hunting may have been the origination of the issue, it has longs since moved far beyond that.

2- Superdelegates - They are undemocratic and irrelevant. Asking them to vote based on any preferred metric is as arbitrary as them voting purely on their own discretion. They will vote how they want. They simply shouldn't be there. They are unnecessary and if the party is so concerned that it can't trust the voters to make an informed decision, the party needs to ask why and make the necessary changes. We don't need insiders casting weighted votes to usurp our preference. Having said that, asking supers to follow their state result is silly. Asking them to follow the popular vote winner is silly. Asking them to vote for any of these reasons is silly. We nominate by delegates and allocate delegates according to the rules and based on voting results. I am of the opinion that the supers should not get in the way of those results. I think whomever wins a majority of the pledged delegates should be the nominee and the super delegates should effectuate that to the extent delegates in addition to the pledged delegates are needed to get to 2,383. However, since super delegates are given unbound discretion, it should not be a surprise to them to be contacted and lobbied by voters to go one way or the other.

3- All votes matter - All states, all votes and all voters matter. The primary, in addition to deciding our nominee, also serves the purpose of engaging voters and getting them invested in the process. in the nomination process, delegates rule the day and every delegate counts. That means every voter in every state counts and matters. Although the delegates are not divided equally among populations, all pledged delegates are created equal. To the extent arguments are made that a blue state win should be valued more, or a small state valued less, etc., and it comes from both sides, for the nomination process all delegates, all states, all voters matter and matter equally. It can be argued that a region, state or certain demographics are indicative of greater potential strength or are of greater significance in the Fall, but that is really unrelated to the nomination process unless future primary voters use that as part of their considerations or those arguments are relied upon by superdelegates in considering their support. I think either candidate will do well in the fall and either candidate can and would win.

Those are off the top of my head, but there are more. Feel free to add your own brush narrowing thoughts or positions.

March 30, 2016

Third Party Candidates don't have much time. State deadlines to get on ballots begin in May

If a candidate wants to run third party, the clock is ticking.

11 states require filing before the July 18 Republican National Convention.

States have various dates and requirements, but a candidate would need to amass around 800,000 signatures in all to make the run and meet filing deadlines beginning as early as May 9 (Texas) through September 9 (R.I.).

In other words, if Trump intends to run third party in the event he is blocked from the gopper nomination, he needs to start working now of getting signatures and meeting filing deadlines. The same is true for any conservative who intends to run against trump if he is the gopper candidate.

Interesting times.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates

March 28, 2016

Thought exercise: Sanders wins pledged delegate race, Hillary popular vote...

Purely a thought exercise on process and procedure. Where do think it would or should come down if Sanders wins the pledged delegate race but Hillary takes the popular vote?

It is possible (albeit unlikely) that Bernie surpasses Hillary in the pledged delegate race. Suppose he continues to chip away at her lead, ties and then moves ahead with a strong showing on June 7. For purposes of this exercise, just proceed on that assumption. Say the voting ends with Sanders winning the pledged delegate majority by 20-50.

At the same time Hillary retains her popular vote lead by a lot, by over a million votes.

At the close of voting under this scenario, Bernie would have some 2,070 pledged delegates,a majority. Hillary would have 1,981 pledged delegates.

How would the first round vote go? How should it go? And why?

It would take super delegates to get either to the necessary 2,383. Should the supers follow the pledged delegate leader? The popular vote leader? The one who performed the best in swing states or who could put the most states in play? Personal preference?

And what would be the effect on the Democratic electorate under a given scenario?

March 27, 2016

All delegates in: Bernie trails by only 228, needs only 56.5% of remaining delegates!

Great night for Bernie and for math!

He now has 1,038 pledged delegates. He needs 988 of remaining 1,747, or 56.5%.

More wins coming in next couple weeks. Big showdown in NY on April 19.

Go Bernie!

March 27, 2016

Sanders sweep! All three states by huge margins, Hillary did not take a single county!

Not a single county in AK, HI or WA went to Hillary.

A true sweep for Bernie!

March 27, 2016

Bernie's within 239 delegates of Hillary and only needs 56.7% of remaining

With HI's 25 and 12 in WA pending, Bernie has better 55 pledged delegates so far on another big night.

It puts hit at 1,014 (to Hillary's 1,253).

With 1784 pledged delegates yet to be allocated, Bernie needs 1,012, or 56.7% to reach a majority of pledged delegates. That number is down from a high of 59 or 60 %.

With 100 delegates up from grabs in the Bernie-favored states of WY and WI in two weeks, the stage will be set for New York on April 19.

If he takes 60% of last 37 from tonight (going conservative) and 60% of WY and WI 100 (conservative), he could be within about 200 of Hillary going into NY, with 247 available.

Go Bernie! Keep chipping!

March 27, 2016

Hillary barely viable in Alaska, pretty pathetic.

She thinks she can coast to nomination and ignore half the country since she ran up a lead. Now she is getting her ass kicked.

WA and AK ass kickings are looking even worse than ID and UT.

This kind of hubris and sense of enetitlement is not what we need in the GE.

March 26, 2016

My Saturday prediction:net +50 pledged delegates for Bernie

When the dust settles, he would be fewer than 250 behind Hillary.



Of course I could be dead wrong.

March 24, 2016

Trump needs 59.6% of remaining pledged delegates to avoid brokered convention

Here's to Cruz and Kasich securing at least 42% of the remaining pledged delegates.

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