President Obama appears to have taken a noticeable, yet brief, hit in public support coinciding with the federal budget sequester that took effect March 1. He averaged 49% approval for the week ending March 3, down from 51% the prior week.



The short-term effect of the sequester on Obama's approval rating is apparent in Gallup's three-day rolling averages.



Obama averaged 51% job approval in Gallup Daily tracking from Feb. 26-28 -- Gallup's three-day average immediately prior to the sequester. The budget sequester went into effect as scheduled on March 1 after Obama and Republican leaders met but did not reach an agreement to delay it. Then, in the first two days of the sequester, March 1-2, Obama's approval ratings were quite a bit lower, bringing his three-day averages for Feb. 28-March 2 and March 1-3 down to 46%.

However, his March 3 and March 4 approval ratings were higher, and Gallup's latest three-day average approval rating -- based on March 2-4 polling -- is 49%, nearly back to Obama's previous level. If the current trend continues, Obama would move back to 50% or above in Wednesday's daily update.

Obama Had Been at or Above 50% Since October

Obama's approval ratings have been consistently at or above 50% for some time. He averaged 51% approval in February, and has been at 50% or higher each month since October. Prior to that, Obama endured a more than two-year stretch with mostly sub-50% approval ratings, beginning in March 2010. The lone exception during that time was a 50% average for May 2011, after U.S. Navy SEALs killed 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden in a raid.



On a weekly basis, Obama's approval ratings had been 50% or higher each week since October.

Implications

Gallup Daily tracking allows for unique measurement of the federal budget sequester's impact on Americans' most important political and economic attitudes. In addition to Obama's approval rating, Americans' confidence in the economy has been affected negatively since the forced budget cuts went into effect. Although Obama's approval rating seems to be recovering from a short-term hit, Americans' economic confidence remains down. Gallup's three-day rolling average Economic Confidence Index score for March 2-4 is -27; it has not been lower since last September.

Of course, the sequester has just started, and its biggest effects may not become apparent for a while. Indeed, Gallup finds that half of Americans are currently unsure about the effects of the cuts on the economy and on themselves, personally, though the remainder of Americans are more negative than positive. Thus, while Obama may have recovered from a short-term decline in his public support, his approval rating will likely remain in a precarious state until he and Congress can reach accord on federal spending and the budget deficit.

At a White House press conference this morning, President Obama laid the blame for the sequester and its effects solely on Republicans. He warned that “every time that we get a piece of economic news” in the coming months, that “economic news could have been better” if not for Republicans’ failure to act. “None of this is necessary,” he continued. “It’s happening because of a choice that Republicans in Congress have made. They have allowed these cuts to happen” in order to prevent tax increases.

After failing to reach a deal with congressional leaders to avoid $85 billion in automatic “sequester” budget cuts, President Obama on Friday blamed the crisis squarely on Republican lawmakers.

“They’ve allowed these cuts to happen because they refuse to budge on closing a single wasteful loophole to help reduce the deficit,” Mr. Obama said at the White House after a Friday morning meeting with top congressional Republicans and Democrats that broke no new ground. “Many middle-class families will have their lives disrupted in significant ways.”

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SEE RELATED: Sequestration process begins: Congress fails to reach agreement on budget fixes before deadline

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But neither side showed any signs of yielding Friday, and Republicans said the reason for the impasse is Mr. Obama’s insistence on more tax increases.

In the Oval Office meeting, GOP House Speaker John A. Boehner told the president it was time to focus on spending cuts instead. He reminded Mr. Obama that he succeeded in raising income taxes Jan. 1 on families earning more than $450,000 and payroll taxes on all wage earners, a deal that had no spending cuts.

“The American people know that Washington has a spending problem,” said Mr. Boehner told reporters after the session.



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House Speaker John Boehner, Ohio Republican, speaks to reporters outside the White ... more >
The president said he told Mr. Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, that “these cuts will hurt our economy, they’ll cost us jobs, and to set it right, both sides need to be willing to compromise.”

The GOP leaders told Mr. Obama they were willing to close tax loopholes, but only if the revenue was used to lower tax rates and create jobs, not to replace the sequester spending cuts.

The meeting was Mr. Obama’s last-minute attempt to postpone a fiscal crisis that has been building for two months. Both sides agreed to the $85 billion across-the-board sequester cuts in 2011 as a way to force Congress to find less arbitrary ways to reduce deficits, but the House and Senate were unable to agree on another solution. In spite of Friday’s deadline, the president had not held any previous face-to-face meetings with the Republican leaders on the budget cuts.

Both sides did agree to work towards a measure to keep the government running beyond the end of March, when the current appropriations legislation expires.

Mr. Obama said he would sign a continuing resolution if Republicans kept the same spending levels agreed to in the 2011 Budget Control Act, although the sequester cuts would still take effect.

“I think it’s the right thing to do to make sure that we don’t have a government shutdown,” he said.

Without an alternative to the automatic cuts, the president was to sign an order Friday directing federal agencies to begin trimming their budgets, roughly 8 percent from defense programs and about 5 percent from domestic spending. Many federal programs are exempt, such as Social Security, welfare, food stamps and pay for uniformed military personnel.

Thousands of federal employees are to be furloughed, although the extent hasn’t been determined yet. The president said the cut will slow economic growth.

“It’s going to mean less growth,” Mr. Obama said.”It’s going to mean hundreds of thousands of jobs lost. “

Although he has been painting a picture of dire consequences from the cuts, Mr. Obama also tried to convince the public Friday that the impact wouldn’t be calamitous.

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