HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » tgards79 » Journal
Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 61 Next »

tgards79

Profile Information

Member since: Thu Aug 7, 2014, 09:37 AM
Number of posts: 1,341

About Me

My blog: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/

Journal Archives

BTRTN: On Covid Data and Magical Thinking

From this article: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/08/btrtn-on-covid-data-and-magical-thinking.html

On March 14, 2020, I posted a piece on early Covid case trends. At the time there were a mere 2,144 cases in America. But I was alarmed at what I saw and sought to convince readers, including friends and family, of the nature of the threat. While the piece seems quaint now, and hardly begins to capture the ultimate nature of the threat as we know it, it was educational in stating that Covid was not going to be a short-term blip. (I have including a link to that post at the end of this article.) At that time, many thought it would be over in a few weeks or months, and were hardly prepared for the behavior changes that would be required.

We are nearly two-and-a-half years from that point now, well along the Covid road – but I find myself having similar fears today, 92 million reported cases later.

So let me shred some enabling Covid myths.

· “Covid is going away.” It is actually the opposite. Covid is actually getting worse. Every new omicron variant appears to be more transmissible, if not more dangerous, than the last. Tons of people are getting it; the anecdotal evidence among our immediate friends and family is overwhelming and inescapable. And the higher transmissions are leading to more hospitalizations and deaths.

· “Everyone is inevitably going to get it anyway, so you might as well just get it over with.” Actually, everyone is not getting it, and if you behave reasonably responsibly, armed with the latest information, you can lower your odds markedly (though you can’t eliminate them). And you don’t want to get this: if you get it more than once, you are potentially weakening your body more and more each time. It is far better to avoid getting it, and if you get it, try not to get it again, especially if you are older.

· “If you get Covid, you are protected against ever getting it again.” This, too, is false. At best you have a month, give or take, with Ba.5.

BTRTN: On Covid Data and Magical Thinking

From this article: http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/08/btrtn-on-covid-data-and-magical-thinking.html

On March 14, 2020, I posted a piece on early Covid case trends. At the time there were a mere 2,144 cases in America. But I was alarmed at what I saw and sought to convince readers, including friends and family, of the nature of the threat. While the piece seems quaint now, and hardly begins to capture the ultimate nature of the threat as we know it, it was educational in stating that Covid was not going to be a short-term blip. (I have including a link to that post at the end of this article.) At that time, many thought it would be over in a few weeks or months, and were hardly prepared for the behavior changes that would be required.

We are nearly two-and-a-half years from that point now, well along the Covid road – but I find myself having similar fears today, 92 million reported cases later.

So let me shred some enabling Covid myths.

· “Covid is going away.” It is actually the opposite. Covid is actually getting worse. Every new omicron variant appears to be more transmissible, if not more dangerous, than the last. Tons of people are getting it; the anecdotal evidence among our immediate friends and family is overwhelming and inescapable. And the higher transmissions are leading to more hospitalizations and deaths.

· “Everyone is inevitably going to get it anyway, so you might as well just get it over with.” Actually, everyone is not getting it, and if you behave reasonably responsibly, armed with the latest information, you can lower your odds markedly (though you can’t eliminate them). And you don’t want to get this: if you get it more than once, you are potentially weakening your body more and more each time. It is far better to avoid getting it, and if you get it, try not to get it again, especially if you are older.

· “If you get Covid, you are protected against ever getting it again.” This, too, is false. At best you have a month, give or take, with Ba.5.

BTRTN Considers the Hall of Fame Ballots for "Early Baseball Era" and "Golden Days Era" Candidates

Perhaps you want a break from COVID, politics and the major league baseball lockout? You've come to the right place! Two MLB Hall of Fame ballots are being considered today, with the official announcement of any new honorees tonight. Here is BTRTN's assessment of the two ballots, which focus on players (or managers) from earlier eras (before 1950, and 1950-1969), who may have been overlooked in the annual Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot over the years.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/12/btrtn-considers-hall-of-fame-ballots.html

BTRTN Considers the Hall of Fame Ballots for "Early Baseball Era" and "Golden Days Era" Candidates

Perhaps you want a break from COVID, politics and the major league baseball lockout? You've come to the right place! Two MLB Hall of Fame ballots are being considered today, with the official announcement of any new honorees tonight. Here is BTRTN's assessment of the two ballots, which focus on players (or managers) from earlier eras (before 1950, and 1950-1969), who may have been overlooked in the annual Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot over the years.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/12/btrtn-considers-hall-of-fame-ballots.html

BTRTN Considers the Hall of Fame Ballots for "Early Baseball Era" and "Golden Days Era" Candidates

Perhaps you want a break from COVID, politics and the major league baseball lockout? You've come to the right place! Two MLB Hall of Fame ballots are being considered today, with the official announcement of any new honorees tonight. Here is BTRTN's assessment of the two ballots, which focus on players (or managers) from earlier eras (before 1950, and 1950-1969), who may have been overlooked in the annual Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot over the years.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/12/btrtn-considers-hall-of-fame-ballots.html

BTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss

"This is an “off off year” election, meaning, as in all odd-numbered years, there are no congressional elections (apart, perhaps, from special elections caused by death or resignation) and no presidential election. But there are gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey that are critical on many levels.

There has been a decade-plus-long trend toward the nationalization of local elections, amply evidenced by the decline of “ticket splitting,” that is, voting for different parties in different races in the same election cycle. That means that off-cycle elections such as these two can serve as barometers of national trends. And certainly these two elections will serve as a referendum on Joe Biden’s brief presidency, no matter how hard the Democrats try to lash their Republican challengers to Donald Trump.

As such, political observers will be watching two sets of numbers – not only who wins, but also how the margin compares to Biden’s margin of victory in the two states in last year’s election. The expected decline will give a rough gauge of how far the country has shifted from blue to red, given Biden’s well-documented troubles.
"

Read on....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/11/btrtn-election-prediction-when-split.html

BTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss

"This is an “off off year” election, meaning, as in all odd-numbered years, there are no congressional elections (apart, perhaps, from special elections caused by death or resignation) and no presidential election. But there are gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey that are critical on many levels.

There has been a decade-plus-long trend toward the nationalization of local elections, amply evidenced by the decline of “ticket splitting,” that is, voting for different parties in different races in the same election cycle. That means that off-cycle elections such as these two can serve as barometers of national trends. And certainly these two elections will serve as a referendum on Joe Biden’s brief presidency, no matter how hard the Democrats try to lash their Republican challengers to Donald Trump.

As such, political observers will be watching two sets of numbers – not only who wins, but also how the margin compares to Biden’s margin of victory in the two states in last year’s election. The expected decline will give a rough gauge of how far the country has shifted from blue to red, given Biden’s well-documented troubles.
"

Read on....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/11/btrtn-election-prediction-when-split.html

BTRTN Election Prediction: When a Split Verdict in VA and NJ (Bad Enough) is Really a Double Loss

"This is an “off off year” election, meaning, as in all odd-numbered years, there are no congressional elections (apart, perhaps, from special elections caused by death or resignation) and no presidential election. But there are gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey that are critical on many levels.

There has been a decade-plus-long trend toward the nationalization of local elections, amply evidenced by the decline of “ticket splitting,” that is, voting for different parties in different races in the same election cycle. That means that off-cycle elections such as these two can serve as barometers of national trends. And certainly these two elections will serve as a referendum on Joe Biden’s brief presidency, no matter how hard the Democrats try to lash their Republican challengers to Donald Trump.

As such, political observers will be watching two sets of numbers – not only who wins, but also how the margin compares to Biden’s margin of victory in the two states in last year’s election. The expected decline will give a rough gauge of how far the country has shifted from blue to red, given Biden’s well-documented troubles.
"

Read on....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/11/btrtn-election-prediction-when-split.html

BTRTN: Part 7, The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Basketball Takes a Back Seat

Latest installment in an annual series of articles about the basketball star....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/10/btrtn-part-7-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html

And now we come to this past year, perhaps the strangest and most wildly divergent of them all, a year in which, for a variety of reasons, basketball took a backseat. Never was there a year when Lin was more irrelevant on the basketball court – completing the COVID-suspended CBA season in the summer of 2020, and then, in 2021, toiling for a mere 9 games in the NBA’s G-League in a quixotic effort to return to the NBA – or more relevant off it, when he achieved global acclaim yet again, this time by embracing his status as a spokesperson for Asian-Americans in the wake of racist and violent acts against the AAPI community, a consequence of the COVID pandemic. Once again it was a year replete with even more extraordinary highs and the lowest of lows.

BTRTN: Part 7, The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Basketball Takes a Back Seat

Latest installment in an annual series of articles about the basketball star....
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/10/btrtn-part-7-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html

And now we come to this past year, perhaps the strangest and most wildly divergent of them all, a year in which, for a variety of reasons, basketball took a backseat. Never was there a year when Lin was more irrelevant on the basketball court – completing the COVID-suspended CBA season in the summer of 2020, and then, in 2021, toiling for a mere 9 games in the NBA’s G-League in a quixotic effort to return to the NBA – or more relevant off it, when he achieved global acclaim yet again, this time by embracing his status as a spokesperson for Asian-Americans in the wake of racist and violent acts against the AAPI community, a consequence of the COVID pandemic. Once again it was a year replete with even more extraordinary highs and the lowest of lows.

Go to Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 61 Next »