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BornADemocrat

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Member since: Sun Apr 26, 2015, 11:58 PM
Number of posts: 8,158

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Signs removed

I was all set to reflexively flip the bird at a Trump house I drive by regularly. To my surprise, the 2 DJT signs had been removed from the lawn, yet 3 other signs were replanted in an orderly fashion.

I'm hoping this bodes well for tonight.

HuffPost Forecasts Hillary Clinton Will Win With 323 Electoral Votes

Democrats stand a strong chance of taking control of the Senate as well.
11/07/2016 06:51 pm ET

The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215.



...

Florida, Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton in the polling averages. The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers, makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her. All three states are more than 80-percent likely to swing Democratic. New Hampshire polls have wavered recently, but the HuffPost model still predicts those four electoral votes will go to Clinton with more than 90 percent certainty. And Clinton should fairly easily hold onto Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

That leaves Ohio as the last critical state. It’s the closest in the race, according to the HuffPost forecast model. Trump leads by just 1 point, and the polling trend has moved toward the GOP in the last few weeks. The HuffPost model gives Trump about a 70 percent chance of winning the state. In the event that Clinton’s ground game stimulates turnout and pulls Ohio in her direction ― which is not out of the question ― she’ll get 341 electoral votes.

...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_us_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94

Breitbart (Gravis) polls not favoring Trump - ooops

538 now-cast - I like it's coloring ;)

Final Economist/YouGov Poll (Nov 4-7) Hillary +4

+1 improvement over their previous poll

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/07/final-economistyougov-poll-shows-clinton-4-point-n/

**Final** Post-ABC Tracking Poll: Clinton 47 - 43

Clinton’s edge in the Post-ABC poll does not reach statistical significance given the poll’s 2.5 percentage-point margin in sampling error around each candidate’s support, although a lead of this size would be a comfortable margin on Election Day. The 47 to 43 percent margin is identical to her edge in the previous four-day wave as well as a mid-October Post-ABC poll. Her margin is also the same size as Barack Obama’s winning margin against Mitt Romney in 2012, 51 to 47 percent. The final Post-ABC Tracking Poll that year found Obama at 50 percent and Romney at 47 percent.

...


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/07/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-47-trump-43-on-election-eve/

Wingnut pollster, Trafalgar Group, tries to tilt Florida

Nate bags 'em (this is poll-plus forecast)



You have to look at their cross-tabs. 26% of blacks voting for Trump, 41% of Hispanics.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitUTc5eVFiWERJRFE/view

Sleazy Rasmussen tries to save reputation - puts out final poll showing Clinton +2 Nationally

They are so predictable.

Of note, however...


"Among those who say they have already voted, Clinton leads 53% to 37%. Johnson earns three percent (3%) and Stein one percent (1%). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_nov7

I just saw a DJT sign that had "grab the pussy" on it

Survey Monkey Oct31-Nov6: NH +11, NC +8, CO +4, NV +1, WI +1, FL +2, PA +5, VA +10, AZ +2, MI +2

MN +10, OH -3, GA -1, SC -2 - rest at link.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cpsplus

All of these are the same on an improvement for Hillary over the previous SM polls, so this is a good trend.
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