Fahrenthold451
Fahrenthold451's JournalUnemployment dips to 4.9%. Wages up 2.8%. +161,000 jobs
This is the last major economic report that could have shocked the election. Good data for HRC. I really like that unemployment is 4.9%. That's a low number. Hurdle cleared.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/04/u-s-economy-added-161000-jobs-in-october-as-unemployment-rate-dipped-to-4-9-percent/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_jobs-835a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
The Economist Endorses Hillary Clinton: "The choice is not hard"
This type of endorsement would have stopped the world 8 years ago....
“The choice is not hard. The campaign has provided daily evidence that Mr. Trump would be a terrible president,” The Economist noted, noting that he has “exploited America’s simmering racial tensions” and possesses a character and temperament that would make him “horribly unsuited” for the presidency’s heavy responsibilities.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/the-economist-endorses-clinton-230674#ixzz4OxcPmfeF
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebookhttp://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/the-economist-endorses-clinton-230674
Early Voting Numbers in AZ Look Fantastico: Hispanic Voting 2X 2012
Latinos are voting in droves in AZ. Sheriff Joe has been indicted and is on the ropes. The community HATES him and Trump equally. Let me tell you, I'm tied into the Latino community here and people are approaching this election with quiet and dignified determination.
Something to consider, btw. Young Hispanics in AZ oftentimes have prepaid wireless numbers. Many of them lapse in minutes, making them very difficult to get ahold of. No way the pollsters are picking them all up.
Finally, virtually everybody in the Latino community knows somebody who benefits from DACA. They know the stakes. Don't give up on AZ yet.
Every election cycle Democrats in Arizona say Hispanics are a bloc that could help turn the state from red to blue, and every cycle that group votes below its potential numbers.
This year Democrats see evidence that more Hispanic voters are casting ballots early. Through Nov. 1, voters who are believed to be Hispanic cast nearly 12 percent of the early ballots. That's still a small share, but well ahead of the 6 percent at the same point four years ago.
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/arizona-early-voting-5-charts/93152768/
Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, same as before FBI announcement: Reuters/Ipsos
No need to say anything else....
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN12X2P6
Accuser Set To Tell Story of Trump Rape: Why this presser will be totally different...
This presser will be different because it is associated with an ongoing legal action. The stakes are way higher.
This case has already gone through some ups and downs. It was previously filed in federal court, and was quickly dismissed because the plaintiff made the biggest mistake you can make. She represented herself. Then she made a common mistake that unrepresented people make. If you file a suit in federal court you need to base your claim on federal law. Her lawsuit failed to meet that test and was summarily rejected. Whoops.
Now, an actual attorney is on the case. Lisa Bloom, daughter of Gloria Allred, fixed the technical difficulties in the first complaint and is moving the case forward. She is about to have a presser where ostensibly her client will present herself publicly for the first time.
Man, there are a lot of reasons why you would not want to do this. Exposing your client to this type of scrutiny under these circumstances will inevitably create substantial liabilities for the plaintiff. Her words, should she speak, will be matched up against the complaint, her future deposition and any future court testimony. There are a lot of things that can go wrong.
Further, the motivation for filing the lawsuit will likely now be specifically challenged by the defense as purely a partisan act. Allred is effectively on team HRC. Holding this presser may be construed as a political event, not a legal one. The defense now has a lot more to say in closing.
It also worries me that the plaintiff filed her case pro se (unrepresented) at the start. Did she shop the case around and nobody wanted it? Is there any evidence with which she can base your claim here? It's a bit sketchy.
However, if Bloom has additional compelling evidence v Trump this press conference is a golden opportunity. The entire world is paying attention. Knock this one out of the park now, and effectively you win the case in the court of public opinion.
So, counselor Bloom, please, I pray you heed my advice. Bring the house and bring it convincingly. This case was messed up once before. Don't botch this.
Edit:
This story is building and getting real traction. Check out Google search traffic for "Trump Rape" Press conference timing of 3:00 is set to coincide with anticipated waves of attention.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&q=trump%20rape
Press conference begins at 3:00 PST
Ballot Initiatives Favor Dems Big Time This Cycle
I just early voted in Arizona and it was so refreshing not to have to deal with anti gay marriage or other conservative wedge initiative that riles up the evangelicals.
Instead I got to vote to legalize marijuana, get more money for local schools and increase the minimum wage. Remember that's in Arizona. Let me tell you, it was very refreshing.
Nationally here are the numbers for initiatives. They all feel right to me and should motivate like minded libs.
Marijuana - 82.0 million residents live in states that could loosen rules on marijuana in November.
Minimum wage - 21.6 million residents live in states that could increase minimum wages in November.
Gun control - 50.5 million residents could be subject to additional gun control regulations.
Tobacco - 51.4 million residents could see tobacco taxes increase after the November election.
https://ballotpedia.org/2016_ballot_measures
Remember how it used to be in 2004? Look at the ballot measures back in the dark ages. The most common measure offered to voters were same-sex marriage bans which appeared on eleven statewide ballots--in Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon and Utah. (All eleven passed).
Kerry lost Ohio, at least according to Diebold, by a hair. You think that ballot measure in 2004 had anything to do with it?
https://ballotpedia.org/2004_ballot_measures
Bill Weld Is Most Powerful Man In The World Today: Use That Power
The river of history runs deep between Weld and the Clintons. In 1997 Weld resigned his governor position to focus on his nomination to become Ambassador to Mexico. Clinton nominated him and the Republicans screwed Weld over royally.
In July 1997, Weld was nominated to become United States Ambassador to Mexico by President Bill Clinton. His nomination stalled after Senate Foreign Relations committee Chairman Jesse Helms refused to hold a hearing on the nomination, effectively blocking it. Helms was also a Republican and their party held the majority in the chamber, but Helms objected to Weld's moderate stance on social issues such as his support for gay rights, abortion rights, and the legalization of medical marijuana. This refusal to hold hearings was also rumored to be at the request of former United States Attorney General and friend of Helms, Edwin Meese. Meese reportedly had a long-standing grudge against Weld stemming from Weld's investigation of Meese during the Iran-Contra affair.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Weld#Ambassadorship_nomination_and_resignation
Weld knows personally what it is like to be on the receiving end of a good old fashioned Republican smear job. Imagine leaving a governors position to get blocked in your ambassador nom by Jessie Helms because you are too pro LGBTQ. Sheesh.
Weld is singularly positioned to alter the course of this race. He is one of the few remaining politicians anywhere near the election process who has any remaining credibility. I can't believe that Weld has forgotten what happened to him.
Over the past few days Weld has been making increasingly strident comments about the danger that a Trump presidency presents. Each day he has inched closer to a full-fledged endorsement. If he abandons Johnson and endorses Clinton I think that would be an immediate +1 for HRC and -1 for Johnson. That would pretty much seal the deal and if Weld does it soon, that would make him perceived as a kingmaker.
You could argue that Comey is the most powerful man in the world. Maybe he was last Friday, but his authority is gone now. After the Mark Rich tweet, the FBI has lost credibility and it's clear he's not at the helm. The odds of being able to fully review the emails by the 8th are slim.
That leaves William Weld, an old ally of the Clintons, as the most powerful single individual man in the world today. He's a man who has been hit in the face by the rotten fish that is a Republican witch hunt. It's time to do the right thing. Drop out of the race and offer a full-fledged endorsement of HRC. I personally think he has been testing the waters to see if the Clintons will offer him something more than an ambassadorship.
Remember that Weld served as the United States Attorney for the District of Massachusetts from 1981 to 1986. AG position, Mr. Weld?
Note: I used the word "man" intentionally. We all know who the most powerful woman in the world is today.
Just Maxed Out Donation To HRC--Because No Man Is An Island
In 1992 I had the honor of seeing Hillary give a speech. At the time she was campaigning for her husband's presidential nomination. It was, to this day, the most impressive political speech I have ever heard. People talk about Michelle's abilities, but Hillary was every bit as good that day.
A few minutes in to her remarks, an unspoken and unanimous sentiment fell over the crowd. Everyone, and I mean everyone, felt that we should be so lucky if she would run for president some day. Nobody thought that any other candidate in the 1992 race would be better suited to the job.
Near the end of her discussion at the outdoor commons, the bell tower on the UCSB college campus began to ring, interrupting her words. She let the clock strike its hour and then finished the thought she was making. She proclaimed that the doubters, the corporate interests, the naysayers and the corrupt, that is for whom the bell tolls. I can't do it justice and I paraphrase, but you had to be there.
After the speech I went home. Feeling academically inspired, I looked up the origin of the phrase "for whom the bell tolls." I knew the book title but didn't know the roots of the expression. It comes from a pastor's sermon and it comes from the same paragraph of the sermon that coined the phrase "no man is an island." I believe the expression is enormously fitting to the current moment.
"No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee."
John Donne
I truly believe that Hillary is still every bit the person that she was in 1992. I truly believe that if given the chance she would do everything she could--within her skills and abilities--to collaboratively help her fellow man. Her world view serves as a stark contrast to her opponent's self-centered authoritarianism. There is no question that Hillary is involved in mankind and no question that Trump is only involved in himself.
It's also obvious that there are powerful and dark individuals who do not believe in John Donne's world-view. These people are now attacking Ms. Clinton with everything they have. These are interests who are not involved in mankind and I believe that it is time to defeat them.
And that is why I gave to her campaign today.
There's a way to prove the Comey story is effectively over. Google Trends
Let's face it. We live in our intense little bubble as hyper-partisans. My arms hurt from holding my phone and checking stories. I think it's safe to say that we are pretty much out of our minds.
So what is everybody else thinking about? We don't have to speculate. Google has a way to show you exactly what is going on and Google says that the Clinton/Comey fiasco is over.
Click on the link below and you will see the Comey spike on Friday. Internet traffic for Clinton searches is now back to normal. You'll have to scroll down a bit and wait for the graph to load, but you'll see it.
https://www.google.com/trends/story/election2016
So what are people looking at? Google will tell you that as well. It's probably going to blow your mind. So the next time that you panic about what Anderson Cooper or Brian Williams are talking about, just know that nobody else seems to give much of a damn. At all. Although there is some good news to follow.
https://www.google.com/trends/home/h/US
The top stories trending right now in the USA...
1. Chicago Bears/Jay Cutler
2. Phoenix Suns
3. Rick James?
Yes, there will be more drips. Yes, we will freak out more. But we might be mostly alone in our emotional discomfort.
There's some good news, though. The highest ranking political search seems to be related to Trumps secret Russian serving server.
https://www.google.com/trends/story/US_lnk_JBYHoQAwAAAjBM_en
Yes, the talking heads aren't talking about Trump's Alpha server. But of the people who give a damn about politics, it's the top search.
By the way, is there any way Brian Williams can stop saying "Um?" My goodness, he says that word 70 times in 30 minutes.
Trump is Toast: The shoe just dropped regarding his ties to Russia
Edit:
David Corn just brought the "full shoe rack" contra Trump. Credit to http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2565294
When you finish reading that post you can come back to mine. Or not. I'm a happy man either way.
------------------
FBI is investigating Manafort. That's great news for Hillary but not a kill shot to Trump's campaign. Well, maybe it will be. Let's look into the story further. The quote from NBC first.
The FBI has been conducting a preliminary inquiry into Donald Trump's former campaign manager Paul Manafort's foreign business connections, law enforcement and intelligence sources told NBC News Monday.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fbi-making-inquiry-ex-trump-campaign-manager-s-foreign-ties-n675881
Yesterday Harry Reid sent his letter to Comey which alleged that Comey knew of Trump and Putin's collaboration. I thought that it was very likely that the Russian story would drop today. And it did.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2562258
My take is that there's been a very interesting dance that has taken place today. Comey is looking for friends, and not finding many. Comey got himself into an impossible situation, legally, ethically and politically. And the pressure was ratcheted up on him massively today.
Here's what I think occurred. Reid sends the letter to Comey, signaling to partisans that it's time to move. The next day it is revealed that Comey didn't want to disclose Russian meddling "for fear it would influence the election." At that moment, Comey is toast if the president wants him to be. The rationale for disclosing the Weiner emails is no longer valid. He arguably has violated the Hatch act, along with his ethical obligations that govern FBI directors. Former prosecutors including Alberto Gonzales are howling. (That's a bad day if Alberto is on your jock about ethics.)
However, Obama being the cool customer he always is, extended an olive branch today. They didn't jump on the anti-Comey bandwagon. They took no position on his Weiner letter. People on the left then freaked out. But I think that what really happened is that Obama signaled to Comey that we can still be buddies, but get the hell out of the way, because the Russian investigation is going to be revealed. And then the shoe dropped.
Look for steady drips of information coming against Trump in the next 48 hours. (A la the server article in Slate)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512564898
Why do I say that Trump is toast? Because the most exciting part of the NBC story is that it references, "Law enforcement and intelligence sources told NBC News Monday." Multiple sources in multiple agencies is GREAT. And guess what "intelligence sources" means? CIA.
By the way, that "bombshell" Brian Ross story is old. I get excited for a microsecond every time I read the headline.
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