Stare Decisis
Stare Decisis's JournalAnecdote-Voter Suppression and Why Party ID In Polling Means Doodley Squat
So my Wife and I move to AZ, in Tempe, and get our licenses and register and so forth. No problem. They ask me, REP, DEM, or IND. I pick DEM. Of course. Why wouldn't I? My Wife picks IND. Whaa? No worry, she is true blue, she tells me. She just doesn't want to get hassled voting. Pfft I say. Won't happen. Boy was my ass wrong.
Fast forward to Election Day, we go to vote. Wife hands over her Voter ID, poll worker looks at it, happily hands her a ballot. I show MY voter ID, granted, different worker, but he examines it, holds it to the light, asks to see further my DL, but not verbally, he just holds his hand out, turns out it has to be scanned. Then I am given a page. The page asks me to verify my address. i do. Then he asks me about past addresses, makes me redo the screen again, argues, and is generally harassing me in a way Wife is not.
Because my voter ID shows Dem. Brass tax of it is liberal moderate conservative is far more indicative of result than DEM, REP IND.
My Wife is a Democrat. However, due to her preference to not be harassed while voting, she doesn't tell anyone.
Note to self-want to neutralize innate white privilege? Tell an aged white man that you are a Democrat.
And then I think-what if I were a POC? And then I wonder how much we really should be winning by..
Here Is The Bottom Line On Nancy Pelosi
1. Were I a leader in a political party that was just catapulted into power on the strength of women, I would not advise to depose the most accomplished female political figure in our nation's history.
2. My Wife and I have healthcare right now because of Nancy Pelosi.
3. I don't care about the inside baseball of internal rank endorsements, and I wish Marcia Fudge would-
4. Leave race out of it.
5. This is why people like Cortez worry me-not because the right wing can propagandize them, but because radicalized rhetoric can split a party.
6. As an aside I am no Cortez fan. There is something Tulsi-ish about her.
7. Nancy has fought the wars, Nancy has won battles, (see above) she has what it takes to take down the GOP, to lead our party, and if need be by order of succession, our nation.
8. New leadership for talking point's sake is how you end up in the minority again.
9. Nancy is like the Beatles-while she gets older her "music" never dates.
10. The right wing will use their propaganda outlets to weaponize any speaker. Jesus Christ, D, TX-23 would become evil to a shrinking, gullible, rapidly irrelevant base of deplorable people so don't cater to them.
11. If the other side says it is a good idea, don't do it.
12. Like Senator Harris she has a brilliant way of making asses afraid of her foot. I like that. We have healthcare because of that. She can be our Speaker as long as she wants as far as I am concerned.
The Self Actualized Electorate is Standing Up
This race boiled down to just two things: racism and self actualization. There is no more north and south but rather educated and non. In race after race suburban women and educated men flipped seats to the Dems. In race after race sludge spawned racists from the sticks flipped seats to the Rs. The thing is, on balance, an eventual conclusion is inevitable-the expulsion to the wilderness of the Republican party.
There are two things Democrats need to do to speed this process-increase education in rural areas, and reform voting procedures which charitably, are a joke. Based on these trends I find it highly unlikely Trump will subject himself to a run for re-election as even if he could win OH, it looks like the suburban women of WI, MI and PA, especially with the reforms MI voted for, have rebuilt our blue wall in the upper midwest. At this point with FL moving to restore voting rights to 1.5 million or so felons, FL is lost to them as well-let me explain:
In an earlier post a Debbie Downer said, paraphrasing, even if the voters were allowed, maybe 10 percent register at a 55-45 blue to red advantage.
1. More likely an infrastructure will be put in place to register these very people.
2. It is more likely a 2-1 split.
3. Even at this pessimistic number Nelson likely wins comfortably.
4. More realistically FL turns bright blue.
The big one is Texas. Texas is now gone for Republicans, as it will likely, with a good candidate, flip in 2020. Why? In each election Democrats are gaining some 400k votes just by registration and attrition. Throw in the continuing suburban bluing and we have ourselves a hammerlock on the EV map.
This is great. President Harris/O'Rourke/Booker/ and most likely to me, McAuliffe, will do a great job.
And why Gov. McAuliffe? The Clinton wing is also a connection wing and a money wing, and this one is shaping up to be a Raider election year-"Just Win Baby."
Gov. McAuliffe is not my first pick, but if I have learned anything Dominance first, Purity second-we have to win. He will be gold in swing burbs.
Terry is fine. Fine right now, would be phenomenal.
McAuliffe Cooper is a smart pick in a Just Win Baby climate. The electorate has shifted. Now we need to cement it.
This is what I think happens. What do I want? I want Avenatti fangs with Beto charm.
And then I wonder if those Joe Sixpacks-
Might take a flyer on a Joe Kennedy.
Final Predictions-Unless
a story breaks tomorrow.
56-44 Dem Generic.
plus 55 seats give or take 5.
Yes on Senate. Add 2-4 points to the team with the turnout energy. Most Senate races are within 2. ND is probably lost. TENN is probably won. TX might be the story, still, not the decider. 51 seats.
The polls never tightened. The polls never shifted really. To a larger point polls are often misunderstood. Polls rarely show an electorate changing its mind as much as which percentage of whom shows up. This is why you never weight party ID. And this is not a tsunami. This is a reality. An energized Trump base netted him 46 percent of the vote in 2016. Attrition and anger whittles that down to 44. A tsunami happens when a major shift in allegiance is seen. Not the case here.
Unless-
See above.
If a story breaks, 52 seats, up to 75 in House.
Going forward this is no longer a 50-50 country. By 2024 it is 60-40. In fact decades from now choices will be, Left, Far Left, and WHOA, That Is Too Far Even For Me.
Oh what a happy day that will be.
Avenatti Is Not Wrong
He is right. And that truth is a shame upon our nation. But I do not think that our next leader needs to pursue the right side of history by acquiescing to those on the wrong side of the present. Kamala 2020.
The next nominee had better be right for the job. Senator Harris just happens to be a hypersmart courageous and beautiful multi-racial person of color. If that is disqualifying our people are not worthy of her leadership. But I have to believe we are. It is how I sleep at night.
The bed I make lies on the RIGHT side of the present.
I Am An Astros Fan-They So Got
what they deserved. First, let's just appreciate as objective observers that Mookie Betts is baseball brilliance. The man should be given a cape.
Two-I have watched this play over and over, and I can't tell. I know Mr. West had to make that call from over 100 feet away in real time, and what he saw was a ballplayer leap and have the ball knocked out of his glove by a fan. Is it possible that fan is a few inches on his side? It is possible. But I think that the spirit of the rules would suggest that the benefit of the doubt goes to the player, and that if a player can reach it he should be allowed to.
Three-if the Astros cheat well, then karma was right on time.
Four-I modeled the angle of Bett's leap because I am of similar height. I mimicked his arm angle and relative torso distance from the wall. Based on this I find it highly improbable his glove was over the wall. Of course Betts is more athletic than me by virtue of having to file flight plans to play outfield, so this is anecdotal.
Fifth-after this play the Astros, down 2-0, would go on to score 6 runs. This did not cost them a ballgame. Their pitching and defense did.
Sixth-With a runner at second and tow outs, once Martinez got to 2-0 Hinch should have walked him. He didn't, Sox get an eight run, allowing Kimbrel to go 2 innings. With a one run lead there is no way Cora stays with Kimbrel in the ninth. Price gets the ball-long story short, Astros probably win.
Seventh-The fan in question is seen wearing a Reagan Bush 84 hat. Refer to point three.
Overall this is basically the World Series. I feel whoever wins this takes no more than five ballgames to dispatch the NL champ. These are two amazing teams, evenly matched, and seven games with Verlander and Cole coming up is more likely than not. Good luck to all.
The Market Sell Off Makes Me Wonder
This kind of volume drop is only possible if the institutional big boys cash out. What would make them panic sell like this? Interest rates-slightly but three points on a T-Bill doesn't tank a market with this amount of free liquidity on the sidelines. Tariffs? Possible, especially given the Asian sell-offs. But no technical impact explains this level of selling.
So what does that leave us boys and girls?
Our losses are approaching ten percent and I am SUPER DUPER MEGA 10 enthused to vote.
How To Be A Real Man's Man
Part of the toxic masculinity issue we face is Frat Boy Culture. Katy Perry calls them Fuckboys. In this kegs, bongs, togas, and women are all of equal importance. And all under their control. I am a dude, a cheeseburger eating, football tossing, weight lifting dude, and for me, that is icing on top of a much more complex cake. It is not my identity. The term Alpha Male is a fugazi. It is a grand bravado influenced bluff designed to make men into depictions of the cartoon characters they idolized. Real men think. Real men feel. Real men cry.
Maybe most importantly, real men evolve.
I do constantly. Of my many bad traits, this ability is one I feel good about. A real man will be slightly different on the last day of his life from even the NEXT to last day.
Maybe then he figures out what I figured out long ago-the only real man is one who understands that term itself is worthless. The true goal is to be a good human. Kind, compassionate, accepting, and empathetic. Reproductive organ definition not required.
I Never Said Not To Vote For Manchin
We need the seat. My point is part of what makes us worthy of leadership is courage and honor. He did not display that in confirming BK. That is as a matter of principle-nevertheless I do appreciate his steadfast support with ACA, so I would never suggest abandoning him. But he let us down. He absolutely did.
Besides, it is not important what one goober like me thinks, anyways, I just wanted to be clear-DEFEAT MORRISEY.
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