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StarfishSaver

StarfishSaver's Journal
StarfishSaver's Journal
June 2, 2019

Please stop assuming if you don't see the Democrats strategizing and whipping, it's not happening

There is so much going on behind the scenes that we can't see, don't know about and will probably never know about

A while back, when Democrats were having difficulty navigating around some unprecedentedly (up until then) gruesome GOP tactics, they spent considerable time and effort behind the scenes working through options and strategies. Among other things, they quietly brought in several outside experts, including a Pulitzer Prize-winning historian, a legendary retired federal judge, and an idolized civil rights activist for private discussions of the problem and to obtain their advice and expertise on how to proceed. These meetings weren't public and very few people who weren't in the room ever knew about them. And thanks to these and other strategy sessions, they figured out a way forward and were very successful.

This was not an anomaly. This is the kind of thing that happens all the time on the Hill. It's inaccurate (and somewhat naive) to assume that the only things that are occurring are those that are happening in our plain sight and if we don't know about it, it's not going on.

Impeachment is a huge issue right now and you can rest assured that the Democrats are on top of it and working it from every angle. Even if you can't see them doing it.

June 2, 2019

Should Speaker Pelosi call the vote this week?

In order to launch an official impeachment inquiry, the House must pass a resolution by a simple majority authorizing a committee (most likely but.not necessarily the Judiciary Committee) to begin an inquiry.

Right now only approximately 54 Members have come out in support of an inquiry. Even if that number is only half of the number of Members who actually support and would vote for opening an inquiry now, it is well short of the 218 votes needed to carry the resolution.

Knowing that, do people think that Speaker Pelosi should call a vote asap (as in this week) to authorize an impeachment inquiry, even though the measure would be voted down overwhelmingly - probably by more than 3 to 1 - by the full House?

June 1, 2019

How I see Speaker Pelosi moving her Caucus to Yes

Many observers seem to think that Speaker Pelosi either is preventing the opening of an impeachment inquiry or is failing to use her power and influence to force her caucus to support it.

That's not how I see it.

Its not the Speaker's job - or advisable or probably even possible - for her to try to single-handedly whip a majority of her caucus into impeaching just by putting pressure on them. While she has enormous influence and power, she can't, completely on her own, turn her entire caucus around on a dime.

Shifting the caucus mood takes time and a concerted, strategic effort.

She's dealing with different equities and issues here and each has to be addressed differently. This is how I see it playing out:

Some Members want an impeachment inquiry opened now, their constituents are behind them and they're outspokenly saying it - they have nothing to lose and everything to gain in calling for the opening of an inquiry.

Some Members want an impeachment inquiry now, but their constituents aren't there yet. Just as you think Pelosi needs to push them to support impeachment, they need to cajole their constituents into supporting it. They know their constituents better than anyone and they know what to do to move them. Members are in a District Work Period now and you can bet the Members in this category are working on selling their constituents on impeachment. There is not much that Pelosi can do to help them with this directly but she can - and is - taking fire for them to give them political cover while they work on it.

However if they're not able to move their constituents but their vote isn't really needed to get the necessary numbers to support the opening of an impeachment inquiry, Pelosi may give them a pass in order to protect them in their district - perhaps with a condition that if she really needs their vote further down the line, she'll get it.

Other Members don't support the opening of an inquiry now, but a significant number of their constituents do. In this case, much of the burden lies on the constituents themselves to push their Member to move toward impeachment. But this is also where Pelosi can be effective by helping to pressure them from the top with the help of other Members of the Caucus who are whipping them from within. That Member-to-Member whipping operation is very strategic and comprehensive. I'm sure this is happening even if we don't see it because this is not done in public, but must be handled internally and very delicately.

And, finally, you have the Members who don't support impeachment and whose constituents also don't support it, either.. They're a tough sell and, depending on their numbers, they might not be worth putting too much effort into convincing if their vote isn't needed to move forward.

As this all happens, Pelosi is keeping track of every vote and where it is and where more can be gotten. When they get close but are a little short, and the other Members can't move their colleagues, THAT's when the Speaker steps in and starts cracking her whip. And she'll drag them over the finish line, if necessary.

Most of this the public never sees - but I have no doubt it's happening. And when we do get to an impeachment inquiry (which I think will happen), it will be seen by the country as their idea, not as something Nancy Pelosi forced on them. And I think she'll be fine not getting credit for her role in making it happen because she that's how she often rolls.

This is in play...

FYI, I worked in the House Democratic whip operation, so my assessment comes from direct personal knowledge.

June 1, 2019

"Please don't let him be black ... Please don't let him be black ... Please don't let him be black!"

This prayer after every mass shooting or terrorist attack is one of the realities of being black in America.

And so is that sick, sinking feeling on those rare occasions when our prayer isn't answered.

Damn!
https://heavy.com/news/2019/05/dewayne-craddock/

June 1, 2019

Let's define our impeachment terminology (Reposting)

I posted this a couple of nights ago, but the thread got sidetracked and clogged up with a lot of off-topic back and forth, and the information I was conveying may have gotten lost.

So, I'm reposting in the hope that people will take away from it what they can use and if they don't find it helpful, they'll just pass it by since the point is not persuade or argue any particular point of view, but simply to inform.

In reposting it, I'm taking the liberty of making some clarifying edits and corrections of a couple of errors that members brought to my attention.

Impeachment = a vote by a simple majority of the House of Representatives agreeing there are sufficient grounds to determine that a federal officer's actions warrant trial and removal from office for the commission of high crimes and misdemeanors. An impeachment does not remove the official from office. Only the Senate can remove and only after a trial and vote of 2/3 of the body.

Impeachment Inquiry = a process used to determine whether a federal officer should be impeached.

Impeachment Investigation = a part of the inquiry that gathers evidence to be used as part of the determination of whether a a federal officer should be impeached.

Impeachment Hearings = proceedings in which the committee conducting the impeachment inquiry takes testimony from witnesses. The witness can be fact witnesses, legal and constitutional experts, special interest representatives (civil rights groups, etc.), and others with information or advice relevant to the inquiry. Hearings can be conducted in public or in private.

Although the terms are often (and inaccurately) used interchangeably, impeachment, impeachment inquiries, impeachment investigations, and impeachment hearings are not synonymous. Hearings can be part of an investigation, but investigations do not require hearings. Investigations and hearings can be components of the inquiry but an inquiry can be conducted without them. In other words, investigations and hearings are specific subsets of an inquiry.

Impeachment is the actual vote that a federal officer's actions warrant trial and removal from office.

There is no such thing as "starting impeachment." At this point in time, Congress is considering whether to open an impeachment inquiry that will likely include an investigation and hearings and could lead to impeachment.

Although impeachment inquiries can begin at the committee level (and some have in the past), impeachment inquiries usually begin with an impeachment resolution introduced in the House and referred to a committee (usually, but not necessarily the Judiciary Committee). If the committee chairman decides to take up the resolution, the committee will consider the measure and takes a vote. If the recommendation passes the committee by simple majority, it is referred to the floor for a full House vote. The House then votes to approve the initiation of an inquiry. Usually the resolution authorizes the Judiciary Committee to open the inquiry, and, among other things, also prescribes the scope and depth of the inquiry, and details the powers and authorities the committee shall have to conduct its investigation.

Impeachment inquiries can take different forms. For example, in the Clinton impeachment inquiry, the Judiciary Committee conducted no investigation, but merely accepted the Starr Report and its deliberations concerned only whether the information in the Starr Report was sufficient to justify impeachment. The Nixon impeachment inquiry was broader, however it, too, relied primarily on evidence and findings elicited in previous investigations and hearings.

At the conclusion of the inquiry, the committee prepares and votes on Articles of Impeachment. The approved Articles are then sent to the House floor for a vote. If the full House votes to approve one or more of the Articles, immediately upon and by operation of the vote, the officer is impeached.

It will then be up to the Senate to decide whether the official is removed from office.

I hope this is helpful!

For those who would like sources, I refer you to the U.S. Constitution; HR 581 (105th); H. Rept. 105-795 (105th); H.Res.803 (93rd);
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-HPREC-DESCHLERS-V3/html/GPO-HPREC-DESCHLERS-V3-5-5-2.htm
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-105hhrg52320/pdf/CHRG-105hhrg52320.pdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/donald-trump-impeachment.html

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