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qdouble

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Member since: Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:00 AM
Number of posts: 890

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Vox announces Warnock as first black senator to win the state of Georgia!



Link: https://www.vox.com/2021/1/5/22213432/warnock-beats-loeffler-georgia-senate-special-election

One Thing Is Clear: Democrats can win elections without appealing to Republicans.

Even after Trump did everything imaginable to show that he was unfit for the job and we ran Joe Biden, a person no honest person would consider as a radical leftists, republican support for Trump only dropped a few percentage points at best. Beyond that, most Republican policy positions that are not based on culture wars are so unpopular that they won't publicly acknowledge them.

I think the exit polls are off a bit when it comes to voting demographics... but out of the people who voted for Trump 71% said having a strong leader was the most important quality in a candidate..."cares about people like me": 49%..."good judgement": 27% and "can unite the country": 23%.

Let that sink in. Unity and good judgement are the most important things to Democrats, but are the least important to Republicans. The majority of them do not care about good governance, they just want endless culture wars and low taxes for rich people.

What we did see is that if Democrats simply energize the base and independents (real Independents, not the Republicans pretending to be independents), then Democrats can win.

Pushing popular policies like Medicare-for-All, switching to green energy to combat climate change, getting rid of student debt, increasing police accountability and things of that nature are good ideas.

We should stop trying to convince Republicans of obvious things like racism is bad or that getting sick shouldn't lead to bankruptcy, because they know but just don't care.

Exit Polls can be just as inaccurate as regular polls

I've been seeing a ton of people in the media and on the web talk about how they can't believe that Trump got more support among certain groups of people as if exit polls are somehow 100% accurate, when they are not. They are based on samples, just like regular polls. Exit polls quite often over or under estimate certain groups and have to be adjusted as far as how they are weighted after all of the results are fully analyzed.

Given how people voted in several different ways this year, exit polling may be even more inaccurate than normal.

So claims about Trump getting more support among people of color may be completely false.

The Lincoln Project Probably Did Help the Democrats

I know a lot of people have been bashing the Lincoln project because Trump still had a very high turnout. However, if you look at the races county by county as the final votes come in, Biden made solid gains in a lot of urban and suburban areas. So while rural areas remained hardcore MAGA, it's likely that a good number of moderate Republicans who don't live in super Republican counties abandoned Trump this cycle.

Hopefully Democrats can figure out how to convert rural voters next cycle, but all is not lost. I suspect that a solid ground game and rallies may be a stronger motivator in terms of voting rather than political ads in those areas.

Reminder: NBC Estimates there are almost 18 Million uncounted ballots

Judging from the states that have the most uncounted ballots and factoring in the fact that more democrats voted by mail or early, I'll estimate that could easily break to be a 70%/30% split in favor of Biden.

That would put Biden at around 83 or 84 million votes and Trump at 72 or 73 million. So Biden would win 52 or 53% of the popular vote and Trump would win about 45 or 46%. So that means the national polls were pretty accurate.

The question is going to be why is the polling in certain battle ground states so off? How many undelivered ballots are there? Did voter suppression play a role? What else could it be?

Washington Post models project Biden will win WI and Pennsylvania

https://twitter.com/lennybronner/status/1324000690012856320

Be patient...the election is likely to end way better than it started

Who are these people whose only reason for voting for Trump in 2020 will be impeachment?

I keep hearing the argument that trying to impeach Trump will hurt the dems in 2020, but how is this calculation being made? Clinton got a boost in the polls after the Republicans went after him mostly because people didn't think an affair was grounds for impeachment... do you think that people are going to be as sympathetic towards Trump for getting help from the Russians, trying to fire investigators, directing people to lie and the host of other crimes that will be dug up?

The fact of the matter is, if all of Trump's dirt coming to the light gains him more support, then we're fucked anyway. Might as well impeach him.

Dump Trumpcare and call it RIP (Republican Insurance Plan). 24K Will die a year.

The best studies on health insurance and mortality suggest 24,000 extra deaths per year if 20 million people lose their health insurance


The researchers behind this 2012 New England Journal of Medicinestudy took advantage of that variation: They compared what happened to health in three states (New York, Maine, and Arizona) that expanded Medicaid eligibility since 2000 to neighboring states without expansions, covering a period of five years before and five years after each state's expansion. They found mortality declined in places that expanded Medicaid by 20 deaths per 100,000, unlike neighboring states that didn’t expand Medicaid. Extrapolating that to the estimated 20 million who could lose health insurance with an ACA repeal, other researchers have suggested this would translate to 43,956 deaths in the US per year.

....
The best paper on this, published in 2014 in the Annals of Internal Medicine, compared the mortality rates in Massachusetts counties from 2001 to 2005 (before health reform expanded insurance) and 2007 to 2010 (after health reforms) to changes in control counties with similar demographic and economic conditions. Here, they found that the health insurance expansion prevented 320 deaths per year since it began in 2006. If that pattern holds for the ACA, the White House Council of Economic Advisers has estimated that it means 24,000 deaths per year nationwide are averted because of the ACA. (Others, including researcher Harold Pollack, have made the same calculation.)

So if we trust these “quasi-experiments,” we’re looking at somewhere between 24,000 and nearly 44,000 extra deaths per year if 20 million people lose health insurance with an Obamacare repeal


http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/14/14921962/ahca-mortality-gun-homicides

Democrats should stop focusing on Trump's "plain speak" and only focus on his lies and failures...

When I watched Trump's press conference, I could definitely see his appeal to the middle America, anti-intellectual, tell it like it is crowd. While most of us think that the president of the United States should be more refined, in your everyday life, do you shout down the average joe when they speak plainly or don't display a high degree of education? The average American isn't ivy league nor is the average person exceptionally eloquent. When we attack his plainness, we attack the very thing that makes them bond with him. He's a billionaire, spoiled brat that is coming off to them as an average joe because we spend so much time mocking his lack of refinement instead of just keeping the focus on his lies and his failure.

GW Bush came off as a bumbling fool to many of us, yet he won re-election. Any time we switch the focus from his lies and his bad policies, then to a large swath of people, we're just coming off as liberal snobs and strengthen the bond they have with their anti-PC, "common man" President.

Terry Tate demolishes Trump!

https://twitter.com/Balvinsanity/status/789444908759130112/video/1

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