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ecstatic

ecstatic's Journal
ecstatic's Journal
July 14, 2024

Is it possible that a bullet did penetrate trump's head

without a lot of blood loss?

July 12, 2024

Biden needs to start firing some folks

Whoever is adding shit to his schedule behind his back needs to be fired.

Whoever is constantly reporting inside information to the media also needs to be fired.

Immediately.

They are harmful at this point.

July 6, 2024

do you believe in the 13 keys to the White House theory?

Below are the 13 Keys to the White House.

According to presidential historian Allan Lichtman, if 5 or fewer of the following statements ( "keys" ) are false, the incumbent party is predicted to WIN the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to LOSE.

Lichtman's model has accurately predicted the result of nine of the last 10 elections.

Lichtman said in multiple interviews this week and last week that it would be a mistake to replace Biden because we'd automatically be losing 2 of the 8 keys needed to win the White House.

I took a stab at it. I may be way off in my answers, but by my calculation, Biden appears to have 7 of the 8 TRUE keys needed to win. All he'd need is for either 4, 8, or 11 to be TRUE when voters start going to the polls.

A replacement candidate would only have 6 of the 8 TRUE keys needed to win. The candidate would need at least two of the following keys to be TRUE: 2, 4, 8, 11.

Here are the 13 Keys and my opinion of the answer for each:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Biden: FALSE
Other: FALSE


2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
With Biden on the ballot, it's TRUE; with a replacement, it depends on how the replacement is done. It could be divisive.

Biden: TRUE
Other: ?


3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Biden: TRUE
Other: FALSE


4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
I don't know. Is RFK Jr's impact significant? And who will he hurt the most? I don't think that's 100% clear yet.

Biden: ?
Other: ?


5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Biden: TRUE
Other: TRUE


6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Not sure?

Biden: TRUE
Other: TRUE


7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Biden can make this true, even if through executive orders. The prescription drug pricing limits that have been enacted are important but not enough. Do something that will impact every wallet. Promise another stimulus check or something and make republicans argue about why that shouldn't be done.

Biden: BIDEN CAN MAKE IT TRUE!
Other: BIDEN CAN MAKE IT TRUE!


8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
The Israel / Palestine conflict is raging on.The main issue is that the US cannot appear to be complicit in any atrocities or complicit in enabling bad actors.

Biden: ?
Other: ?


9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Biden: TRUE
Other: TRUE


10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Biden: TRUE right now
Other: TRUE right now


11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
If Key # 8 is resolved, it would also make this Key true as well.

Biden: ?
Other: ?

(Corrected/Edited)

12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Keeping it real.

Biden: FALSE
Other: TRUE


13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
We find him revolting, but trump is a cult leader. They find him charismatic. It's unclear how it changes things when a cult leader is also extremely hated by tens of millions of people. It might dilute the effects of this FALSE key.

Biden: FALSE
Other: FALSE

July 4, 2024

President Biden full radio interview with Earl Ingram and reaction from callers

Starts about 2 minutes in. I'm listening now. The interview was conducted yesterday and aired today.

Earl Ingram Interview

July 4, 2024

President Biden is NOT telling folks to shut up. He is taking the concerns very seriously

and proactively working to regain the trust and confidence of his base.

If President Biden believes it's OK to entertain the doubters and proactively SHOW voters what he's capable of, then why do some people here want to cut the process short and silence critics?

Let the discussion play out!

Let the upcoming interviews play out.

In about 2 weeks we'll have it all sorted out one way or another!

As long as we all commit to supporting our nominee no matter what, I think we will be stronger coming out of this.

July 3, 2024

Looks like Stephen King is in the resign camp


Stephen King @StephenKing
·
Jul 2
Ruth Bader Ginsburg refused to resign, and we got Amy Coney Barrett as a result.
Draw your own conclusions.

9:16 AM · Jul 2, 2024 2.6M Views



https://twitter.com/StephenKing/status/1808127561009938543

July 2, 2024

What is more risky?

Is it more risky for President Biden to stay in the race or for him to leave the race (before the convention)?

July 2, 2024

Biden's "absolute immunity" speech: Satisfied or not?

It was a good speech but I didn't like the way President Biden immediately ruled out using the powers himself. I think in this atmosphere we have to remain flexible and use every tool we have to navigate what's happening. The rightwing is grabbing power in a grotesque way and because it's being done through the courts there seems to be a lack of will to do anything about it.

July 1, 2024

are magats really OK with presidents having king-like powers?

I feel like this should be a WTF moment for them too. Maybe it will be.

Surely they understand that at some point the "libs" will take scotus and congress back, right?

Are they really that short sighted or are they confident that the rightwing coup will be successful this time?

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