June 6, 2024

Emerson Polling continues to show a tight race...

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/june-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-45/

A new Emerson College Polling national survey of U.S. voters finds 46% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 45% support President Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Nine percent are undecided. Since last month, Trump’s support has stayed the same, while Biden’s support has increased one point. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, the race splits evenly; 50% support Biden and 50% support Trump.

“Trump’s support in our polling remained the same before and after his conviction,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “A majority of Democrats say it makes them less likely to support Trump (51%) and a majority of Republicans (55%) say it makes them more likely to support Trump. A plurality of independents say it makes no impact (41%), while 38% are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely.”

IMHO... "felon Don" and "Democracy in peril" aren't moving the needle as campaign tactics.

I'd much rather see a full court press on kitchen table issues because cost of living is the #1 concern for American today.

The economy remains the most important issue for voters at 42%, a four-point increase from the Emerson May national poll. Immigration is the second most important issue to voters at 15%, followed by threats to democracy at 12%, housing affordability at 7%, crime at 6%, abortion access and healthcare at 5% respectively, and education at 4%.

June 5, 2024

Interesting website I thought you might appreciate: NATIONAL D-DAY MEMORIAL NECROLOGY PROJECT

THE NATIONAL D-DAY MEMORIAL NECROLOGY PROJECT

The World’s Most Complete Account of D-Day Fallen.

https://www.dday.org/learn/necrology-project/

When planning the Memorial, its early leaders could not find an accurate count of those killed on D-Day, much less an authoritative roster listing the names of the fallen. Estimates varied widely and often confused fatalities with casualties (killed, wounded, captured, and missing). The board set a laudable but challenging goal: the Memorial would identify and remember, by name, every single Allied soldier, sailor, airman, and coastguardsman killed on June 6, 1944, in the Normandy Invasion. Such a list of the dead from a single event is termed a necrology; hence the research endeavor became known as the Necrology Project.

Recognizing her tenacious skills as a researcher, supervisors tasked Carol Tuckwiller, a former librarian who had taken a retirement job at the Memorial, with finding the answer to the question of how many died on D-Day. Tuckwiller painstakingly tracked down and perused voluminous burial records, after-action reports, personnel files, unit histories, ship logs, headstone applications, and hometown obituaries, among many other sources.

The research revealed many complications. Men had the same or similar names. Spellings varied in records. Copies were illegible. Men died on other battlefields on June 6, 1944. Some wounded during the Normandy Invasion died in the days following D-Day.

June 4, 2024

Morning Consult: Trump lead over Biden cut in half post conviction... Biden now leads Trump in favorability

The polls will be interesting to watch in the coming weeks... or to ignore if you wish.

https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling

Trump, a convicted felon, still leads Biden: Trump leads Biden by 1 percentage point in our latest tracking, 44% to 43%, compared with a 2-point lead ahead of last week’s guilty verdict in the former president’s New York hush-money trial. Biden posted his best support among Democratic voters (88%) since April, but he continues to underperform Trump among their respective supporters from 2020 (84% to 90%).

Guilty verdict takes toll on Trump buzz: Trump’s conviction on 34 felony charges by the New York jury is the biggest news story of the year so far, with 56% reporting that they’d recently seen, read or heard “a lot” about it. That makes it the most salient of roughly 250 news stories we’ve tested so far in 2024, and it resulted in returning Trump’s net buzz rating to its lowest point since August, after the former president was booked and had his mugshot taken by Fulton County authorities on charges related to his behavior following the 2020 election.

N.Y. trial has hurt Trump’s image: This is the fifth successive week in which Biden’s net favorability rating has bettered Trump’s — the longest such stretch since April 2023 and a trend that began as legal proceedings in New York ramped up.

June 2, 2024

Just wanted to break down the GOP support for Trump.... the HOWS and WHYS.

If I had a dollar every time I heard someone ask HOW the GOP could support TCF...

I'd be richer than TCF.

I've thought about it a lot... and will explain.

(my opinions)

First, one must go back in time a little.

The most important factor of post WW2 USA is the ascendance of the Neoconservative movement.

Some will say the birth of the Neocons was during the Vietnam War. But I disagree. After reading the book by Justin Vaisse (Brookings Institution), I'm going to credit the end of WW2 as the catalyst.

You see... there were those (most famously, George S Patton) who actually suggested marching East from Germany to eject Russia from Central Europe, at least back to Pre-WW2 borders. They met initial resistance from folks like Truman, Ike, etc... but this whole "anti-Communist" sentiment took off within just a few years as an official policy of "containment" of the Communists was developed. AKA the Truman Doctrine...

And then... just a few years later, the Hawks in the US got a chance to fight some Communists in Korea.

And then a decade later the opportunity to fight Communists in Vietnam.

Call the Vietnam War the second stage of Neoconservatism or the rebirth.

The movement became a backlash against the Cultural movement to the Left. Not just anti-Communist and pro-American empire building but culture warriors picking up several groups like Christians and those opposed to Civil Rights, "Free Love", the hippies, anti-war protestors, music, diversity and such things... it was the broadest expansion of the group so far.

Fast forward to the 80's... an opportunity arose when Reagan was elected with HUGE majorities. Reagan was a true believer in Neoconservatism and launched the whole "Drive the Russians bankrupt Arms Race"...

When the Berlin Wall fell... the Neocons sensed the opportunity to "finish off" Russia, to take the sole position on the top of the worlds countries. This may have been the PEAK of neoconservatism.

By the 90's, Americans preferred the cool guy who played the sax... Neocons were the old people, closed minds and "fuddy duddy".

Neocons were thrown a lifeline on 9/11/2001, Vaisse called this the "third stage" of the movement... Shrub the Lesser became their empty suit and their power surged. They led the movement with nonsensical phrases like "Spreading Democracy" which can be translated to expand the American empire.

Again... within just a few years the American people saw through the lies of the Neocons and elected the cool black guy... with the beautiful wife and cute kids.


So where are you going with this, War Gamer? OK that's the background. And here's why the GOP has become the Trump Party.



Post 9/11, Post Shrubs illegal war... the Neocons had run out of steam. Neocons have a primary focus on the Global American Empire, politically and economically. They have "used" the groups they co-opted for power. The Religious Right, the cultural conservatives, the Country Club Republicans, the Soccer Moms, the folks still sore about Civil Rights...

The GOP was shrinking. Parts of the GOP were "leaking" to the Left.

Look at the nomination of Dole, Bush, McCain and even Romney... all weak candidates attempting to get the whole "club" back together.

Republican voters became an even more narrow slice of the public. Those with populist beliefs or far right beliefs couldn't connect with these guys.

In 2012, Romney received 60m votes.

Along comes Trump. Like him or not, he energized a HUGE portion of voters and just 4 years after Romney, Trump received 63m votes but more importantly brought out voters who were previously non voters or infrequent voters.

In 2020, Trump rec'd 74m votes, more than any candidate in history NOT named Biden.

So here we are in 2024.

Why is the GOP latched onto Trump?

Simple answer. They want those 74m votes going forward.

The Neocon movement failed those on the Right by becoming a "fake" Party, doing the DC thing and lying to folks back home.

So... the GOP will back Trump 100% and if/when he loses in 24, they keep the Trumpists and repair bridges with Suburbia with folks just like Trump but with higher IQ and better optics... like Haley, Scott, deSantis, etc...

In other words, the rise of Trump is the evolution of the GOP from the Neocon Party (dead and buried, sorry Liz and Dick) to a populist and similar to the 60's... anti cultural warrior Party.

THIS is why they embrace Trump. Period.

Thanks for reading, if you made it this far.

June 2, 2024

And right on cue... OPEC+ Agrees to Extend Production Cuts in Bid to Boost Oil Prices

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/opec-agrees-to-extend-production-cuts-in-bid-to-boost-oil-prices/ar-BB1ntRiK

OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to extend all production curbs into 2025 in an effort to shore up oil prices, delegates said, with top producers in the group continuing to haggle over a deal to cut output further. The agreement comes on the same day the group’s kingpin, Saudi Arabia, launched a giant sale of shares in its national oil champion that will yield billions to help fund the kingdom’s economic transformation.

Saudi Arabia on Sunday started selling less than 1% in state-run oil giant Aramco, potentially raising almost $12 billion, an offering that followed the record $25.6 billion generated in its 2019 initial public listing. The kingdom has embarked on a slew of megaprojects including a multibillion-dollar city in the desert and a global airline and needs oil in the high $90s to fund its ambitions, according to market watchers.

The further extension of cuts agreed Sunday could tip global oil markets into a supply deficit, pushing up prices. Demand for OPEC+ crude is set to increase next year by 800,000 barrels a day, the cartel said in a report last month.

looks at calendar... yup it's 150 days before election.

If the Saudis are targeting high 90's crude... that means record high prices at the pump this year and spiking inflation numbers.

May 31, 2024

Lost in all the champagne corks flying... NY Court of Appeals grants Trump permission to sue Mary Trump.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-sue-niece-over-161215365.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) -A New York state appeals court said Donald Trump can sue his niece Mary Trump for giving the New York Times information for its Pulitzer Prize-winning 2018 probe into his finances and his alleged effort to avoid taxes.

The Appellate Division in Manhattan found a "substantial" legal basis for Donald Trump to claim that his niece violated confidentiality provisions of a 2001 settlement over the estate of his father, Fred Trump Sr.

A five-judge panel said it was unclear whether Mary Trump's disclosures were subject to confidentiality, or how long both sides intended the provisions to remain in effect.

May 30, 2024

A broken clock... and Trump actually said something prescient.

I agree 1000%

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/trump-reacts-after-guilty-convictions-the-real-verdict-is-going-to-be-nov-5-211962949614

Former president Donald Trump said the "real verdict" would be the US election in November after a New York jury convicted him on all charges in his hush money case on Thursday.

November 5th is for all the marbles...

GOTV.

An electoral defeat and he's reduced to the ash heap of history.

A victory... and while I don't believe in the whole "Democracy will be lost" stuff... I can foresee a vengeance based orgy of destruction and chaos for 4 years... and that would be VERY BAD for the US and the world.

May 28, 2024

A Unique Election Driven by a Traditional Issue

Not happy news... but it's the best written summary of the race as of today... ignore it at your own risk.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/unique-election-driven-traditional-issue

The Cost of Living Defines This Election

Many Democrats wonder why Biden isn’t getting more credit for an economy where unemployment is at record lows, the stock market is booming, and the post-COVID economic hangover has lifted. But those aren’t the measuring sticks that voters use to gauge the health of the economy. When asked what they thought the best markers of a strong economy were, few (6%) picked the stock market, only 13% picked low unemployment, and just 9% chose household income. Instead, a healthy majority (54%) said the cost of living was the best way to measure the strength of the economy. And, not surprisingly, 51% of voters also think that inflation is the “worst/weakest” part of the economy.

In other words, in the minds of voters, inflation is the engine — not the caboose — of the economy. Moreover, 59% of voters think that President Biden has control over inflation and rising costs. This helps explain why Biden’s approval rating on the economy is deeply underwater at -20 (40% approve to 60% disapprove). Meanwhile, perceptions of Trump’s handling of the economy when he was president, marked by low inflation but huge job losses from COVID, are overwhelmingly positive, with 62% approving of how he dealt with economic issues.

May 17, 2024

Good read... How Could Trump's New York Hush Money Trial End?

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/how-could-trumps-new-york-hush-money-trial-end

The main takeaways being...

Trump is charged with 34 Class E felony counts, which are punishable by imprisonment for more than one year. If the former president is found guilty, he could serve between a year and four months and four years in prison for each count, though a prison sentence is unlikely.

This scenario has received little attention but is worth mentioning. Trump can be convicted of the misdemeanor charges of falsifying business records even though the indictment only charges him with felony counts.

If convicted, his case would be heard by the First Department of the New York Supreme Court’s Appellate Division, and it could potentially be appealed again to the New York State Court of Appeals, which is New York’s highest court. Notably, that court just overturned Harvey Weinstein’s 2020 sex crimes conviction.

The misdemeanor part is notable because the crux of the prosecution case to make a felony... is proving the falsification was done for electoral reasons. The misdemeanor conviction may be the compromise position in the jury room IF there are disagreements.

May 8, 2024

Hot off the presses... MIXED polling from PA

Released today.

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/pennsylvania-older-voter-survey-2024-report.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.001.pdf

https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/PA_ELEC_2024_SPRING_REPORT.pdf

Trump up in PA by 3% and 4% head to head... 5% in a 5-way race.

BUT... with control of the Senate up for grabs... Casey leading McCormick by 4%!!!

Don't get mad at polls... GOTV.