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Chichiri

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Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PM
Number of posts: 4,667

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A Best-Case Scenario for Bernie

Here's what I did: I looked at every primary from now through March 15. For states where FiveThirtyEight has a spread projection, I took the 90th percentile of Bernie's projected vote (the right side of the blue bell curve). For example, while the projected vote in Nevada right now is 52-46 Hillary, the 90th percentile of Bernie's range is at 54, which would give Hillary 46, for total margin of +8.

For states where FiveThirtyEight doesn't have a projection, I took the most favorable (to Bernie) recent reputable poll and gave Bernie the undecideds. For example, Alabama's most recent poll is 59-31 Hillary, so I bumped Bernie up to 41, for a -18 margin. The exceptions are Colorado and Minnesota; the most recent polls there are very favorable for Hillary, but those polls are old, and they're caucus states which favors Bernie, so I simply assumed a tie in both those states.

I then compared these numbers to Nate Silver's target numbers at 538, the margins that Nate says Bernie needs to beat in each state in order to be on track to win the nomination.

Here's how it shakes down -- and again, this is a best-case scenario for Bernie.

[font color="red"]NEVADA: Needs -3; has +8.

[font color="blue"]SOUTH CAROLINA: Needs -11, has -24.

[font color="red"]VERMONT: Needs +49, has +76.

[font color="blue"]MINNESOTA: Needs +17, has 0.

[font color="blue"]COLORADO: Needs +13, has 0.

[font color="blue"]MASSACHUSETTS: Needs +11, has +7.

[font color="red"]OKLAHOMA: Needs +2, has +4.

[font color="blue"]TENNESSEE: Needs -4, has -18.

[font color="blue"]VIRGINIA: Needs -9, has -12.

[font color="red"]ARKANSAS: Needs -20, has -18.

[font color="red"]TEXAS: Needs -20, has -16.

[font color="blue"]GEORGIA: Needs -24, has -26.

[font color="red"]ALABAMA: Needs -27, has -18.

[font color="gray"]KANSAS: Needs +13; no data.

[font color="gray"]NEBRASKA: Needs +11; no data.

[font color="red"]LOUISIANA: Needs -22, has -20.

[font color="gray"]MAINE: Needs +27; no data.

[font color="blue"]MICHIGAN: Needs +11, has -16.

[font color="red"]MISSISSIPPI: Needs -32, has -20.

[font color="gray"]MISSOURI: Needs +4; no data.

[font color="blue"]NORTH CAROLINA: Needs 0, has -10.

[font color="blue"]OHIO: Needs -2, has -6.

[font color="gray"]ILLINOIS: Needs -3; no data.

[font color="blue"]FLORIDA: Needs -15, has -24.


[font color="black"]Anyone want to see a more realistic scenario?

(Originally posted in GDP -- I think, like most of you, I'm done there.)

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 19, 2016

Last updated: 2:54 PM CST

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 481, Sanders 55 (Clinton +426)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]


[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Nevada (Gravis): Clinton 53, Sanders 47 (Clinton +6).
South Carolina (Monmouth): Clinton 59, Sanders 30 (Clinton +29).
North Carolina (SurveyUSA): Clinton 51, Sanders 36 (Clinton +15).
South Carolina (Seltzer & Co): Clinton 53, Sanders 31 (Clinton +22).
South Carolina (Fox News): Clinton 56, Sanders 28 (Clinton +28).
South Carolina (NBC/WSJ): Clinton 60, Sanders 32 (Clinton +28).

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton 72%.
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Arkansas: Clinton 99%
Georgia: Clinton >99%.
Oklahoma: Clinton 78%.
Tennessee: Clinton 99%.
Texas: Clinton 98%.
Virginia: Clinton 98%.
Michigan: Clinton 94%.
North Carolina: Clinton 97%.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 468, Sanders 3.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 78%, Rubio 11%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 91, Bush 51, Cruz 21.[/font]


Comments
Happy Friday!

So just as we Hillary fans resigned ourselves to losing most of New Hampshire's 24 pledged delegates, so now have Bernie fans seemed to resign themselves to losing most of South Carolina's 53 delegates. The question is, how much will he lose by?

According to Cook's model (which has not yet been updated to factor in the 87 additional superdelegates Hillary has lately received, or the handful that Bernie also picked up), Bernie doesn't need to win South Carolina to stay on track for the nomination. But he does need to come close: he needs 25 delegates to Hillary's 28. Currently he is projected to get at most 40% of the vote, which would give him about 21 delegates to Hillary's 32. Barring a Bernie blowout in the Silver State on Saturday, this will give Hillary the lead in pledged delegates.

What about Super Tuesday? Bernie will win Vermont, of course, and almost certainly meet his target of 11 delegates to Hillary's 5. My guess is that he'll take Massachusetts pretty easily -- and he'd better; his target is 56 delegates to Hillary's 35.

The last poll here in Minnesota was 59-25 Clinton, but that's from late January, and Minnesota is a caucus state, so Bernie has a pretty good chance here (target is 45 to Hillary's 32). Colorado's last and only poll of 55-27 Clinton is from November, and again it's a caucus state, so again Bernie's got a good chance there (target 36 to Hillary's 30).

Beyond that? Assuming Bernie picks up all the undecideds in Alabama, he'll get about 21 delegates (target 28). In Arkansas, 11 or 12 (target 17). In Georgia, 32 (target 49). In Texas, 89 (target 108). And so on.

It's not all bad. He only needs 3 delegates from American Samoa.


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the election).

The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.

If this post is useful to you, please K&R!


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
They wanted me to do a blind acupuncture study, but I didn't see the point.[/font]

[hr]

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 18, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 481, Sanders 55 (Clinton +426)
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]


[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Nevada (CNN/ORC): Clinton 48, Sanders 47 (Clinton +1).
Arkansas (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25).
Massachusetts (PPP): Sanders 49, Clinton 42 (Sanders +7).
Oklahoma (PPP): Clinton 46, Sanders 44 (Clinton +2).
Tennessee (PPP): Clinton 58, Sanders 32 (Clinton +26).
Texas (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 34 (Clinton +23).
Virginia (PPP): Clinton 56, Sanders 34 (Clinton +22).
Alabama (PPP): Clinton 59, Sanders 31 (Clinton +28).
Georgia (PPP): Clinton 60, Sanders 26 (Clinton +34).
Louisiana (PPP): Clinton 60, Sanders 29 (Clinton +31).
Michigan (PPP): Clinton 50, Sanders 40 (Clinton +10).
Mississippi (PPP): Clinton 60, Sanders 26 (Clinton +34).
Vermont (PPP): Clinton 10, Sanders 86 (Sanders +76).
Nevada (Gravis): Clinton 53, Sanders 47 (Clinton +6).
South Carolina (Monmouth): Clinton 59, Sanders 30 (Clinton +29).


Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton 75%.
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Arkansas: Clinton >99%
Virginia: Clinton 98%.
Michigan: Clinton 95%.
Georgia: Clinton >99%.
Oklahoma: Clinton 81%.
Texas: Clinton 98%.
Tennessee: Clinton 99%.
North Carolina: Clinton 99%.


Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 77%, Rubio 12%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 85, Bush 51, Cruz 21.[/font]


Comments
Is it Thursday already? Jeesh.

Quinnipiac released a whole slew of matchups in hypothetical general elections, the gist of which Bernie rocks and Hillary sucks. Generally speaking, matchup polls early in the election years have zero predictive value, as I would be pointing out (perhaps somewhat reluctantly) even if roles were reversed. Moreover, in this particular instance, we have a unique problem: Bernie's numbers reflect someone who has never been properly vetted nationwide, and who has had the luxury of being able to define his own image, while Hillary's numbers reflect over two decades of the harshest national vetting this country has ever seen. So yes, Virginia, they really do mean nothing.

Well, almost nothing. If Bernie does win the nomination, he might have a little bit of cushioning for his fall -- and I think he'd still do well against Trump and maybe Cruz, at least, just because those two guys are so awful. So if GOP trends continue past Super Tuesday, a Bernie nomination wouldn't be the worst thing. (But if Rubio, Kasich or Bush wins, start praying.)

Difficult or not, I would love to see a couple more Nevada polls. How about you?


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the election).

The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.

Additions and changes made after the thread is posted will be denoted by italics.

If this post is useful to you, please K&R!


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
The new window glass fell into a tree yesterday; it was a pane in the ash![/font]

[hr]

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 16, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44 (Clinton +350)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]


[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
South Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 40 (Clinton +19)
South Carolina (Gravis): Clinton 59, Sanders 41 (Clinton +18).
South Carolina (PPP): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).
Virginia (CNU): Clinton 52, Sanders 40 (Clinton +12).
South Carolina (CNN/ORC): Clinton 56, Sanders 38 (Clinton +18).
South Carolina (ARG): Clinton 61, Sanders 31 (Clinton +30)

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Sanders 51%.
South Carolina: Clinton >99%.
Virginia: Clinton 84%.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 95%.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 74%, Rubio 15%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 75, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]


Comments
Hillary's target in Virginia is modestly higher than Bernie's, 49 to 46, which means she needs about 52% of the vote. According to the Christopher Newport University poll, which was taken both before and after NH, that's exactly what she has, and if the undecideds break evenly that will give her 56%, which would be 53 delegates. However, the margin of error for that poll is 7.3.

The SC targets of 28 and 25 are unchanged, which means Hillary needs around 53% of the vote. Currently she's polling a bit under 60%. As for Nevada, Bernie needs at least 19 pledged delegates there, which is around 54% of the vote. 538 still has it as a tossup based on that single GOP pro-Bernie push poll.

Bernie has taken a tiny lead in 538's Nevada projection -- but to be honest, I have no idea what has gone into it. The push poll from a few days ago is still the only poll in town; that hasn't changed. I know that there are other factors that go into the projections besides polls, however, so I'll take Nate's word for it. Meanwhile, another confirmation of Hillary's 18-points-or-greater lead in South Carolina.


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates and superdelegates. Superdelegates are not bound to any one candidate, and while the count reflects their stated intentions, they can change their minds before the convention.

The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.

Additions and changes made after the thread is posted will be denoted by italics.

If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know. If this post is useful to you, please K&R!


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
If you see a Hillary supporter using a lowercase letter, capitalize on it![/font]

[hr]

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 15, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32 (Sanders +4)
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44 (Clinton +350)
Versus Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada caucuses, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).
Targets (Cook): Clinton 16, Sanders 19.[/font]


[font color="darkblue"] Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45 (tie).
South Carolina (ARG): Clinton 65, Sanders 27 (Clinton +38).
South Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 40 (Clinton +19)
South Carolina (Gravis): Clinton 59, Sanders 41 (Clinton +18).
South Carolina (PPP): Clinton 55, Sanders 34 (Clinton +21).

Latest Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 99%+.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 95%.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Versus Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 73%, Rubio 17%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 75, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]


Comments
The Nevada poll is a bit old now, and is a pro-Bernie push poll, but it's still literally the only recent poll we have. Nevada was conducted both before and after the NH primary; the two SC polls were conducted after.

With the two new SC polls today, it seems that the ARG poll that had Clinton +38 was an outlier, and that she's ahead by around 20 points. For reference, Bernie's margin of victory in New Hampshire was 22 points. Between that and the fact that Hillary's target number is slightly higher in SC than Bernie's (28 to 25), it seems that Bernie fans have some small glimmer of hope in SC.

I've tweaked this a bit to make it a bit more readable, to accommodate Bernie fans who want to give more weight (or all weight) to pledged delegates, and because I enjoy tweaking things.


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates and superdelegates. Superdelegates are not bound to any one candidate, and while the count reflects their stated intentions, they can change their minds before the convention.

The targets are taken from the Cook Political Report's model, based on superdelegate endorsement and demographic conditions favorable to each candidate, and represent the number of delegates each candidate must win in each state in order to stay on track to tie for the nomination. The targets are current as of February 12. The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the projections indicate the probability that the candidate will win that state.

Additions and changes made after the thread is posted will be denoted by italics.

If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know. If this post is useful to you, please K&R!


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
When I dropped the piano down the mineshaft, I got A-flat minor.[/font]

[hr]

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 14, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44.
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32.
Delegate Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.


Next Primary
Nevada, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).


Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45.
South Carolina (ARG): Clinton 65, Sanders 27.
South Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 40.


Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 99%+.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 96%.


Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Delegate Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 70%, Rubio 14%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 65, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]


Comments
Happy Valentine's Day.

So Scalia's dead. How this will affect the primary remains to be seen, but I'm positive it will be affected in one respect or another. Meanwhile, I was raised to say something nice when someone dies, even an enemy, so let me say this about Scalia: he was a far, far better man than Mao Zedong.

The Nevada poll was conducted both before and after the NH primary. The SC polls were conducted after. The TargetPoint poll is a pro-Sanders push poll conducted by the far-right Washington Free Beacon. 538's projection is based on it, however, because it's the only recent poll.

Everyone was civil when I posted this in GD-P yesterday, so I'll keep doing it for the time being. If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know.


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I learned sign language a few years ago. It's pretty handy.[/font]

[hr]

State of the Primary - February 13, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44.
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32.
Delegate Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).

Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45.

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 95%.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 96%.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]

[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Delegate Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 64%, Rubio 15%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 65, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]

Comments
That TargetPoint poll is a pro-Sanders push poll conducted by the far-right Washington Free Beacon. 538's projection is based on it, however, because it's the only recent poll.

This is a daily sheet I started to compile a few days ago, just for my own reference. My qualifications for objectivity are a similar project I ran in the 2012 general election, as well as the fact that I relied on subjective information in 2004 and was completely blindsided when Kerry lost. I intended to post this in the Hillary Clinton group, but I'll give it a pilot test in GD-P, and we'll see if both sides deem it useful (and can keep it civil and stuff). If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know.

[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I don't know why the calendar maker fired me. All I did was take a day off![/font]

Pop quiz, hotshots.

You're the President. The leaders of Congress, which has a recent history of insane obstruction and of opposing everything you do simply because they hate you personally, a history which is becoming increasingly reflected in the public perception of Congress and of the opposition party in general, comes to you in public dialogue and says the following:

We would like you to give us demands X, Y and Z. We hope you will, because wouldn't it be a shame if we failed to raise the debt ceiling, thus destroying the global economy?

What is your best response?

Election Forecast Summaries: 11/2 (morning)

If this series is helpful to you, please K&R!

From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," although I've now gone to a standard percentage-based unit. "unch" means unchanged from last report.

[font color="blue"]
Election Projection: O 290 (unch)

University of Illinois U-C: O 296.7 (+2.3); p(RE)=99.4% (+1.5%)

Electoral-vote.com: O 281, R 215, T 42 (O-18, R+9, T+9)

Huffington Post: O 259, R 191, T 88 (O-18, R-15, T+33)

TPM/PollTracker: O 285, R 191, T 62 (unch)

FiveThirtyEight: O 303.4 (unch); p(RE)=80.9% (unch)

Princeton: O 318 (O+3); p(RE)=97%, 99.3% (+1, +0.3%)

DeSart/Holbrook: O 281 (unch); p(RE)=87.05% (+0.21%)[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,488!

Election Forecast Summaries: 11/1 (afternoon)

I've added a new tracker to this list, TPM's which is powered by PollTracker. Tx4Obama gave me a huge list of electoral maps last night, but except for TPM, most of the ones I didn't have were more interested in keeping it a horse race than in presenting an up to date snapshot.

From now until the election I'll post once or twice a day with these summaries. "p(RE)" means "probability of re-election," although I've now gone to a standard percentage-based unit. "unch" means unchanged from last report.

[font color="blue"]
Votamatic: O 332 (unch)

Election Projection: O 290 (new)

University of Illinois U-C: O 294.4 (unch); p(RE)=97.9% (unch)

Electoral-vote.com: O 299, R 206, T 33 (O+19, T-19)

Huffington Post: O 277, R 206, T 55 (unch)

TPM/PollTracker: O 285, R 191, T 62 (new)

FiveThirtyEight: O 300.4 (+1.4); p(RE)=79.0% (+1.6%)

Princeton: O 316 (O+13); p(RE)=96%, 99.1% (+3%, +1%)

DeSart/Holbrook: O 281 (unch); p(RE)=86.84% (+0.15%)[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 179, R 359 (unch from 10/25) [/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $2,428!
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