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Amimnoch

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Breaux Bridge, Louisiana
Home country: United States
Current location: Houston, TX
Member since: Tue Jul 3, 2007, 06:34 AM
Number of posts: 4,166

Journal Archives

Going Bloomberg.. for now.

From the beginning, my only focus has been on the key swing states that are needed to actually get to 270.

I don't give 2 shits about policy. I don't give 2 shits about history. I don't give 2 shits about the national (popular vote) polls. I don't care what California is polling at, or New York, or Alabama, or even where I live here in Texas (unless a candidate can really turn it into a winnable battleground like I thought Beto could early in the season).

He just announced, so there are no matchup's of Bloomberg in the battlegrounds yet, but as I have done with the other candidates, I will watch those most closely. I'm taking a leap of faith here. I think Bloomberg is just the kind of candidate that may really be able to take on Cheetolini in those states.

Right now, the single biggest concern I have about Bloomberg is that, if we get him a House and Senate majority, that no matter what, he will sign off on, not veto, any hard fought for legislation the party gets to his desk. This is the same major concern I have had about Bernie Sanders. All of the other candidates, not so much.

If the matchup polls don't show Bloomberg doing well in the battleground states like I think he will, I'll drop him like yesterdays left out potato salad.

Winning 2020 is all that matters. Popular vote doesn't do it, we've seen that already. 270. If Bloomberg, as I suspect, is the one that gives us the best showing in the battleground states like I suspect upcoming polls will show, I'm with him.

I'm especially interested to see how the next Texas matchup poll will go. Bloomberg may be able to do what Beto wasn't and get that reddish purple of my state into the bluish purple category.

State of the Battleground - November edition.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

Highlights: 2 new polls in Florida during the month of October from UNF and NY Times/Siena. FINALLY a new poll in Pennsylvania (first update since May) from the NY Times/Siena. No new poll in Ohio. New Emerson poll in Ohio. 2 new Arizona polls, NY times and Emerson (Emerson most recent). And last, a new NY Times/Siena for Wisconsin. Overall, Florida and Michigan are looking better, but the rest of the states are losing ground. The total 270 maps are looking the worst they have since I started this tracking. Remember light blue is a win, but WITHIN the margin of error. If we don't want 4 more years of Trump, our candidates really need to stop going after congressional required issues, and start focusing on what they will be able to effect changes on as President to undo the damage Trump has done imo. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - 2 new polls UNF, and NY times/Siena in October. NYT is most recent, and used for the map. NOTE: The UNF poll did not have stats for Bernie. MOE for UNF is 3.8 and 4.4 for NYT.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win. Gain of 3 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss. Loss of 4 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss. No change from the September FL Atlantic poll

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New NY Times/Siena. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/PA110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +3 win, down from the May Quinnipiac that had him winning by 11 points. VERY concerning.
Warren: -1 loss, down from +3 win in May Quinnipiac
Sanders: +1 win, down from +7 win in May Quinnipiac

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new Emerson October poll - MOE 3.0
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-democrats-aim-to-take-back-the-state
Biden: +12 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Warren: +8 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Sanders: +12 win, up a whopping 8 points from August EPIC-MRA. Great gains on this one.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - Another state that had 2 polls this week. Emmerson is the most recent, so using that one for the battleground maps below. MOE for Emerson is 3.2, and 4.4 for NYT/Siena.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races
Biden: 0 points tie - down from +2 win from August OH Predictive insights.
Warren: 0 points tie - up from a -1 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.
Sanders: -2 loss - up from a -10 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New NYT/Siena October poll. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +4 win, down from +9 win from August Marquette poll
Warren: 0 tie, no change from the August Marquette poll
Sanders: +2 win, down from +4 win in the August Marquette poll

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

I LOVE my medical insurance!!!

I really do. My company provides for myself and my husband extremely well when it comes to the medical insurance they provide. With my primary care physician, the one that I really like going to, my office visit copay is $15. Urgent care visit? $25. ER visit $35. Neither of us ever have problems with our prescriptions, and very low copay on those as well.

That said, Iím still 100% behind either single payer enhanced ACA OR MFA, or any version of improvements to our healthcare system that we can put a CONGRESS into place to get for us.

Why? Because as good as mine is, I have family and friends that arenít so lucky. Because it still sickens me that so many donít have access to anything even close. Disgusts me that so many people go into bankruptcy.

Also, I am very aware that as good as mine is, I am only 1 kidney failure, or bad auto accident, or cancer, or heart failure, or liver/GI issue away from NOT having it. One firing or lay-off away. There is no guarantee or right to remain on the plan that i have or the job that I have.

And, even though I still think this is a ridiculous topic to have at all for POTUS candidates because itís a congress issue, I also think it only addresses a sliver of what needs to be addressed. WHEN we do get a congress that can pass improvements, and a POTUS that will sign off on whatever the congress we provided to them does get passed; it needs to be more than just healthcare insurance. It needs to be an infrastructure bill that increases the number of facilities around the country, number of clinics. It needs to be an education bill that helps us get MORE doctors, MORE nurses, MORE administrators, MORE technicians and phlebotomists. It needs to tackle medical research and pharmaceuticals.

Beto O'Rourke ends his presidential bid after campaign failed to take off

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/beto-o-rourke-ends-2020-campaign-says-he-ll-work-n1074811

DES MOINES, Iowa ó Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke dropped out of the 2020 presidential race Friday after a disappointing campaign that failed to build off the momentum generated from his longshot Texas Senate run.

"Though today we are suspending this campaign, let us each continue our commitment to the country in whatever capacity we can," he wrote in an email to supporters. "Though it is difficult to accept, it is clear to me now that this campaign does not have the means to move forward successfully."

Lagging in the polls and with fundraising, O'Rourke had yet to qualify for the Nov. 20 Democratic debate sponsored by MSNBC and The Washington Post.


Probably a good move at this point. Still a bit saddened, I had such high hopes early on for this candidate. Would have been a great thing for us to have had Texas as a strong battleground contender imo.
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