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Chichiri

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Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PM
Number of posts: 4,667

Journal Archives

One Word . . .




The six most delegate-rich states still to come are Califonia (475), New York (247), Florida (214), Pennsylvania (189), Illinois (156), and Ohio (143). Three of these states all vote on March 15, and Hillary is projected to win all of them by large margins. If these margins hold for the next couple weeks, she will take:

* 87 delegates from Ohio, 31 more than Bernie.

* 103 delegates from Illinois, 50 more than Bernie.

* 142 delegates from Florida, 70 more than Bernie.

So from these three states alone, Hillary's lead will expand from 197 delegates to 348 delegates. It is mathematically impossible for her to lose these delegates from Pennsylvania or New York alone, and Bernie would require 87% of the vote in California to make it up. (The latest poll from California is a couple months old, but it showed Clinton 46, Sanders 35.)

After March 15th most of the remaining states do favor Bernie -- but by small numbers. 41-34 delegates in Arizona, 19-14 in Utah, 13-12 in Hawaii, 96-93 in Pennsylvania, and so on. Only Oregon, Wisconsin, and Washington favor him by double digits.

Here's the thing. If Bernie battles Hillary to a tie in all the states where she is favored (including Louisiana, Florida, Illinois, etc.), and wins all of his favored states by the very margins which give him the advantage, he will make up 122 delegates on his 197-delegate deficit.

Hillary wins.

If Hillary takes Ohio, Illinois and Florida by the margins projected above, but is kept to a tie in every other state where she's favored (although Ohio actually favors Bernie by 1 delegate), and Bernie wins all his other favored states by DOUBLE the margin of his advantage, he will make up 242 delegates on his 348-delegate deficit.

Hillary wins.

If, just for fun, we give him an additional 100 delegates in California, that's 342 delegates on his 348-delegate deficit.

Hillary wins.

And no, there will be no indictment. Filter right-wing and pro-Bernie sites out of your Google and research it for yourself. It's a non-issue.

Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President. End of story.

No State of the Primary tomorrow

... unless my guinea pigs manage to perfect miniaturization technology and get their submarine into my blood stream to destroy those pesky viruses.

And yes, they're working on it. But without opposable thumbs, well...

Hope to be back for Louisiana Day on Saturday.

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 3, 2016

Current and past editions of SotP can always be found at its website, http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/

As always, please keep this thread kicked so that non-night-owls can see it.


Delegate Count

Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,052, Sanders 427 (Clinton +625).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 596, Sanders 399 (Clinton +197).
Versus Targets: Clinton 596/529 (+67), Sanders 399/492 (-93).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.


Latest Results

Super Tuesday: Clinton 505, Sanders 334 (Clinton +171); 26 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 505/453 (+52), Sanders 334/412 (-78).


Next Primary: March 5

Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska: 109 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 57, Sanders 52.


Latest Polls

Florida (University of North Florida): Clinton 54, Sanders 24 (Clinton +30).
Mississippi (Magellan): Clinton 65, Sanders 11 (Clinton +54).
Louisiana (Magellan): Clinton 61, Sanders 14 (Clinton +47).


Current Polls-Plus Projections

Louisiana: Clinton 75.0, Sanders 17.9.
Michigan: Clinton 61.2, Sanders 35.8.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.5, Sanders 36.0.
Ohio: Clinton 60.8, Sanders 36.9.
Florida: Clinton 67.4, Sanders 29.2.
Illinois: Clinton 66.1, Sanders 29.8.


Current Endorsement Score

Clinton 478, Sanders 5.



Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 316, Cruz 226, Rubio 106.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Rubio 24, Cruz 16.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 157, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.



Comments
Not much to say until March 5th, except that we still don't have all the Super Tuesday delegates allocated. Numbers are starting to come in for the rest of the southern states, however, and it seems clear that Hillary is set to beat her target in these states as well. I'll probably have more to say about targets, and what beating them or not beating them means. Suffice it to say, for now, that Bernie has only really "won" three states, Vermont, Oklahoma, and Colorado, and has tied in a fourth, New Hampshire. Hillary has won every other state in the sense that she beat the target number that she was expected to hit, given the demographic skew of the particular states.


How This Works
All information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except for the total delegate count, which is taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The endorsement score refers to


Pun of the Day
I didn't understand the math, so the teacher summed it up for me!

"Hillary is only winning the red states! They don't do us any good!"

2) Obama won "the Republican states" the Sanders fans are complaining about now. And well, guess where he is now? Where we want to be in January. Aka, the White House.

3) We won Massachusetts (deep blue) ... and Sanders won Oklahoma (deep red). lol.

4) HRC is leading Michigan and Illinois (fivethirtyeight.com)

5) The primaries are the only time that Dems in red states have a real voice about such an important issue at the federal level. To dismiss the whole state because it usually goes red is to dismiss the huge number of Democratic voters and their voices in those states about who they want as a leader and what their interests are.


And so on and so forth. From reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/hillaryclinton/comments/48obk3/sanders_fans_trying_to_downvote_to_push_out_the/

Bernie's advantages from here on out

We know that most of the states going forward from here on out give a demographic advantage to Bernie. But what's more: we can quantify that advantage. That is, we can look at the demographics and other factors, and we can see not just whether Hillary or Bernie will win, but how much they will win by.

For example, Hillary had a 4-delegate advantage in Arkansas; that is, if the national vote is tied, we would expect Hillary to take 18 of the 32 delegates from that state, to Bernie's 14. (Hillary actually took 22.)

Another example: Hillary's massive advantage in Texas amounted to an expected 30 delegate lead; she was expected to take 126 delegates, to Bernie's 96. (She actually took 139 or more; the delegate count isn't finished yet.)

In short, while the states thus far have advantaged Hillary more than they have Bernie, that advantage works out to 37 delegates; that is, if the national vote is tied, Hillary should be 37 delegates ahead of Bernie; this is what we would expect from an American population split evenly between Bernie and Hillary.

As of this writing, Hillary is 197 delegates ahead.

In the 35 states and few odd territories to come, Bernie needs to exceed, not Hillary's numbers, but his own target numbers by an average of over 5 delegates each. In those places where he fails to meet that benchmark (and it's actually mathematically impossible for him to do so in a few of the territories), he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

In fact, there are seven states -- Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Delaware, New Jersey -- and one territory, DC, which are demographically skewed toward Hillary, but that Bernie nevertheless needs to win. Again, if he loses, he needs to make up the difference elsewhere.

Here's a breakdown by state. The first number is the number of delegates in each state, the second is Bernie's target number based on demographics, the third is the number Bernie actually needs to take the nomination, and the fourth is the percentage of the total number of delegates he needs from that state. The blue-shaded states are demographically advantaged for Hillary, the green states for Bernie. The greater the percentage Bernie needs from each state, the deeper the red in the fourth column.






STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 2, 2016 (FINAL DRAFT)

(Okay, I survived the jury. Make sure you watch my signature, however, and if I disappear you can still find SotP at http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/)

Delegate Count

Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,034, Sanders 408 (Clinton +626).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 596, Sanders 399 (Clinton +197).
Versus Targets: Clinton 596/529 (+67), Sanders 399/492 (-93).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.


Latest Results

Super Tuesday: Clinton 505, Sanders 334 (Clinton +171); 26 not yet allocated.
Versus Targets: Clinton 505/453 (+52), Sanders 334/412 (-78).


Next Primary: March 5

Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska: 109 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 57, Sanders 52.



Latest Polls

Florida (University of North Florida): Clinton 54, Sanders 24 (Clinton +30).


Current Polls-Plus Projections

Michigan: Clinton 60.7, Sanders 36.3.
North Carolina: Clinton 59.7, Sanders 36.8.
Ohio: Clinton 60.1, Sanders 37.6.
Florida: Clinton 66.8, Sanders 30.6.
Illinois: Clinton 65.5, Sanders 30.4.


Current Endorsement Score

Clinton 478, Sanders 5.



Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 316, Cruz 226, Rubio 106.
Michigan Projection: Trump 36, Rubio 24, Cruz 16.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 157, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.



Comments
So the good news (for a Hillary supporter) is that Hillary is now almost mathematically certain to win the nomination after Super Tuesday. The bad news is, "silly season" is going to go on for some time to come.

Bernie frankly did better than I thought he would. In addition to winning Vermont, won Oklahoma, Colorado, and -- this one is especially painful for me -- Minnesota, all by very comfortable margins. He did lose Massachusetts, but just barely; I'm sure they're calling it a "virtual tie" a la Iowa. Clinton, however, took even more comfortable margins in the six southern states.

In order to meet his FiveThirtyEight target, Bernie needed much more than the 334 delegates he currently has.


How This Works
All information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except for the total delegate count, which is taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination; they take into account factors such as demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The endorsement score refers to



Pun of the Day
I was wondering why the baseball was getting bigger. Then it hit me!

Barring a catastrophe, Bernie is finished.

Hillary's second magic number from last night, the one she needed to beat to preclude Bernie from meeting his worst case scenario number, was +478. AP hasn't updated their count in a while, but CNN has it at 1055 total, including supers. If that's correct, then she has picked up 511 delegates from last night (with only a few still not allocated).

For the record, a couple days ago I predicted she would pick up 508.

The Numbers Bernie Needs Tonight



The first number is the total number of pledged delegates in the state. The second number is taken from 538's delegate tracker, and represents the number Bernie would be expected to get if he is tied 50-50 nationwide. The third number is taken from the excellent work of MattTX at DailyKos, a Bernie supporter and a numbers wonk with an incredible attention to detail. This number represents the numbers Bernie would need to get in order to meet the worst case scenario for Bernie that still allows him to win the nomination (it assumes a gradual but massive national shift in his direction, culminating in a California win).

If Bernie consistently meets or exceeds either number for these states, we can safely say that he is still competitive in the race.

Feel free to copy this to the Bernie and Hillary groups for your own discussions (I'll be caucusing for much of the night).

Hope both sides find it useful!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 1, 2016

Reprinted from here with permission of the author (me). Please keep this thread kicked throughout the day so that non-night-owls won't miss it.


[font color="blue"]Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 546, Sanders 87 (Clinton +459).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 91, Sanders 65 (Clinton +26).
2,383 delegates to secure the nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.



Latest Results

South Carolina (53): Clinton 39, Sanders 14 (Clinton +25).
Vote Spread: Clinton 73.5, Sanders 26.0 (Clinton +47.5).
Versus Median Projection (Clinton +20): +27.5.


Next Primary: TODAY! (Super Tuesday)

Alabama (53), median Clinton +30.
American Samoa (6): median tie.
Arkansas (32), median Clinton +24.
Colorado (66), median Sanders +11.
Georgia (102), median Clinton +40.
Massachusetts (91), median Sanders +11.
Minnesota (77), median Sanders +21.
Oklahoma (38), median Sanders +4.
Tennessee (67), median Sanders +2.
Texas (222), median Clinton +13.
Vermont (16), median Sanders +83.
Virginia (95), median Clinton +9.



[font color="darkblue"]Latest Polls

Massachusetts (Suffolk): Clinton 50, Sanders 42 (Clinton +8).
Alabama (Monmouth): Clinton 71, Sanders 23 (Clinton +48).
Oklahoma (Monmouth): Sanders 48, Clinton 43 (Sanders +5).
Texas (ARG): Clinton 58, Sanders 38 (Clinton +20).
Massachusetts (UMass Amherst): Clinton 47, Sanders 44 (Clinton +3).
Michigan (MRG): Clinton 56, Sanders 36 (Clinton +20).
Texas (Emerson): Clinton 68, Sanders 26 (Clinton +42).
Massachusetts (Emerson): Clinton 54, Sanders 43 (Clinton +11).
Georgia (WSB-TV/Landmark): Clinton 70, Sanders 23 (Clinton +47).



Current Polls-Plus Projections (from 538)


Alabama: Clinton 73.8, Sanders 23.3.
Arkansas: Clinton 64.1, Sanders 32.4.
Georgia: Clinton 68.0, Sanders 28.9.
Massachusetts: Clinton 52.4, Sanders 44.7.
Oklahoma: Sanders 47.4, Clinton 47.3.
Tennessee: Clinton 62.6, Sanders 34.0.
Texas: Clinton 64.6, Sanders 32.4.
Vermont: Sanders 86.9, Clinton 10.8.
Virginia: Clinton 62.2, Sanders 34.7.
Michigan: Clinton 60.5, Sanders 36.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 59.4, Sanders 37.0.
Ohio: Clinton 59.8, Sanders 37.9.
Florida: Clinton 66.3, Sanders 30.9.
Illinois: Clinton 65.3, Sanders 30.6.



Current Endorsement Score (from 538)

Clinton 475, Sanders 5.



[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
538 Colorado and Minnesota Projection: Who the hell knows?
Endorsement Score: Rubio 157, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.



[font color="black"]Comments
It's Super Tuesday!!

Some interesting doings in Oklahoma yesterday: the Monmouth poll put Bernie in an almost decisive lead for some hours, and then at the last minute the SoonerPoll poll yanked it away. I honestly don't know what's going to happen in Oklahoma, or in what I call the "black box" states of Colorado and Minnesota. Those will be the three states to watch today.

So: who's going to win Super Tuesday? It's pretty much a given that Hillary is going to win more delegates, because most of these states favor her. But Bernie can still "win" Super Tuesday by gaining enough delegates to stay competitive, and to be able to pull ahead in later states. So how will we know?

FiveThirtyEight has a new delegate tracking feature, co-written by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. It's exactly what I've been wanting: a target track that excludes superdelegates and only shows pledged delegates. At present, Hillary's target is 76 delegates, and Bernie's is 59. They are up by 15 and down by 15, respectively.

According to this model, by the end of the day today, Hillary should have a total of 529 pledged delegates, and Bernie should have 492. Whoever exceeds their target number is winning the primary.

Also, MattTX at DailyKos, a Bernie supporter and a very thorough numbers wonk who's done some impressive work, laid out a set of benchmarks for the worst case scenario for Bernie that still allows him to win. Here are the vote percentages and delegate count for Hillary under this scenario.

Alabama: 62.1%, 32 delegates.
Arkansas: 60.9%, 19 delegates.
Colorado: 45.8%, 30 delegates.
Georgia: 66.3%, 67 delegates.
Massachusetts: 47.8%, 44 delegates.
Minnesota: 47.2%, 36 delegates.
Oklahoma: 52.1%, 21 delegates.
Tennessee: 58.3%, 39 delegates.
Texas: 59.5%, 132 delegates.
Vermont: 14.1%, 0 delegates.
Virginia: 58.8%, 55 delegates.

Those are Hillary's numbers to beat; by comparing tomorrow's results to these numbers, we will know whether Bernie is still competitive in this primary, or whether we can safely stick a fork in his campaign. My own prediction, for what it's worth, is that Hillary will meet or exceed these numbers in every state but Oklahoma.

So when will we know? Here is a list of poll closing and caucus times.

American Samoa: caucuses begin at 2pm EST (8am Samoan time).
Georgia, Vermont and Virginia: polls close at 7pm EST.
Minnesota: caucuses begin at 8pm EST (7pm CST).
Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee: polls close at 8pm EST.
Arkansas: polls close at 8:30pm EST.
Colorado: caucuses begin at 9pm EST (7pm MST).
Texas: polls close between 8pm and 9pm EST.

If you live in one of these states, remember to vote today!


How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
You can't trust most electronics, but at least you can count on your calculator![/font][/font][/font][/font]


[font color="green"]How many pledged delegates will Hillary have at the end of the day? Vote below![/font][/font]

Here's what needs to happen for Hillary to lose....

In a post he made just before South Carolina, MattTX at DailyKos, a Bernie supporter and a VERY thorough and pretty objective numbers wonk, laid out three scenarios in which Bernie could still win the nomination. The entire post is full of charts and graphs and analysis, and is well worth the read.

Here are his benchmarks for the first scenario, which is the worst case scenario in which Bernie could still win. This assumes a gradual national polling shift to a tie in late March, and then to a 51-40 Bernie lead by June 7. The +numbers represent the candidate's cumulative total of pledged delegates.

March 1: Hillary +104
March 5: Hillary +106
March 15: Hillary +184 (last of the south)
March 26: Hillary +176
April 1: Hillary +143 (Bernie landslides WA)
April 19: Hillary +135 (Bernie wins NY)
April 26: Hillary +132
May 3: Hillary +117 (Bernie wins IN)
May 10: Hillary +109 (Bernie wins WV)
June 7: Bernie +7 (Bernie wins CA and other remaining states)


The second scenario is both more likely (according to MattTX) and better for Bernie; it assumes a tie by mid-March, and then a sustained 47-44 Bernie lead in national polls by April 9. Remember, however, that this was written before SC.

February 27: Hillary +12 (Bernie comes close in SC)
March 1: Hillary +68 (Bernie comes REALLY close on Super Tuesday)
March 8: Hillary +77
March 15: Hillary +112 (Bernie wins MO and OH)
March 26: Hillary +96
April 9: Hillary +44 (Bernie landslides WA)

...and it gets better for Bernie from there, until he wins by 23 delegates.


The third scenario is an extension of the second, in which Bernie's national polling lead continues to increase, all the way to 50-41 on June 7.

April 26: Hillary +50
May 10: Hillary +27
June 7: Bernie +75 (Bernie wins CA)


So any reasonable scenario for a Hillary loss must have the following:

1. Bernie is no more than 104 delegates behind after Super Tuesday.
2. Bernie is no more than 184 delegates behind after March 15.
3. Bernie is leading in national polls by April 1, and stays in the lead.
4. Bernie wins Washington state by a landslide.
5. Bernie wins California.
6. The vast majority of superdelegates break with Hillary and support Bernie.


That's what needs to happen for Hillary to lose. What do you think?
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