April 15, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 15, 2016

53 Days to California, 4 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
I've been looking at betting exchanges again this year. In 2012 I looked steadily at InTrade, which is now defunct; this year I'm looking at BetFair, which works differently; rather than percentage chance to win, it simply gives decimal odds.

Right now, the back/lay for Hillary to win is 1.10/1.11. That means if you want to bet a dollar that Hillary will win the nomination, the most any anti-Hillary person will give you is $1.10. And if you want to bet against Hillary winning, the least amount any pro-Hillary person will accept for their dollar if she wins is $1.11.

If you offer a higher amount, such as 5 bucks, the pro-Hillary crowd will snatch it up; they'll gladly take a 4-buck profit. If you offer less, such as $1.05, the pro-Hillary crowd will still take it -- but not while someone else is offering $1.10.

Meanwhile, the back/lay for Sanders is 10/12.5. You bet a dollar on Sanders winning the nomination, you get 10 if he wins. You bet against him and he wins, you lose $12.50.

Another way of looking at it is the standard ___-to-one format. The odds against Sanders are ten to one. The odds against Hillary are a scant 1.1 to one.

Yet another way to look at it is implied percentage, which can be obtained simply by taking the reciprocal of the decimal. One over 1.1 is 0.91, which means Hillary's implied chance of winning is 91%. One over ten, of course, is 10%; that's Sanders' chance of winning.

(By the way, I know a lot of people are looking at PredictWise, but since the formula for that site is still pretty new, I prefer to look at straight betting. Prognostication is one of the few things the free market is really, really good at.)

TL;DR: The closer to one, the better. Hillary's at 1.1, Sanders is at 10.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
The article on Japanese sword fighters is quite lengthy, but I can samurais it for you!


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April 14, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 14, 2016

54 Days to California, 5 Days to New York.

Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
This Democratic primary has been a pollster's worst nightmare. Michigan is the most obvious example, but take also states like South Carolina, where the polls predicted an easy Hillary win, but failed to predict the utter and complete blowout she achieved.

I've been looking over the polling aggregates for states that have already voted, and it seems to me the problem is that, with respect to states that they got wrong, pollsters can't seem to pin down a working model; this is evidenced by the fact that, in states that were wrong, the polls tended to be all over the place. In the days before Michigan, for instance, the polls ranged from Clinton +11 to Clinton +37. In South Carolina, they ranged from Clinton +11 to Clinton +50 (and +50 is in fact what she achieved). In Oklahoma, they ranged from Clinton +16 to Sanders +5. And so on.

Weeks have passed, states (and territories) from every geographical and demographical region have voted, and the big pollsters have been burning the midnight oil trying to get their models correct. No one will bet the farm that they have it right, of course, but I for one feel safe dipping my feet into the waters of prognostication once again.

In New York there have been ten polls over the past couple weeks, and they range from Clinton +10 to Clinton +18. That's very narrow compared to the above states. Moreover, any pro-Sanders "insurgency effect" will be offset by the exclusion of independents from the closed primary. (Frankly, the New York closed primary rules do need some revision; Trump's own kids can't vote for him, not having registered in time! But for now, they do work against the low-information Sanders voter.)

The average of all these polls is Clinton +12.9. If that holds, Hillary will take about 140 delegates, bringing her magic number to 41.4% of remaining votes. If we take the low end of the range, Clinton +10, she gets 136 delegates and her magic number is 41.6%. For more pessimistic outcomes, see my April 10 SotP. For more optimistic outcomes, consult a more optimistic numbers wonk.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, however, Sanders will have only 1,400 delegates remaining to catch up to Hillary.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I wanted to teach chemistry, but after periodic doubts I decided I was out of my element!

April 12, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 12, 2016

56 Days to California, 7 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +649).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
As you can tell if you have seen yesterday's SotP and compared it with today's, all these numbers are subject to tiny changes. A recalculation from a previous contest flipped a Hillary delegate to Sanders, and suddenly most of these numbers are changed, including the adjusted targets for New York.

What's going on? Well, there are local or regional events pertaining to the primary results virtually every single week. Over this last weekend, for example, in addition to the Wyoming caucuses we had the Massachusetts Congressional District Caucuses, the Oklahoma State Convention, and the Tennessee State Executive Committee. Next weekend we've got the Arizona Congressional District Caucuses, the Colorado State Assembly, the North Carolina County Conventions . . . I could go on.

These regional events are where the more precise calculations take place. These events are also prime territory for those on either side who want to want to screw with the results -- say, by showing up as a delegate without the proper credentials, or by sending messages intended for the other side's audience that they need not attend a certain meeting. As a result, the numbers will be in a tiny state of flux right up until the convention.

Unless the count is very close, which I don't believe it will be, this flux will not be large enough to swing the race one way or the other. For now, though, it plays hell with numbers wonks like me. Therefore: all hail Google spreadsheets!


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I don't like grapes these days; people just aren't raisin them right!

April 11, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 11, 2016 (Adjustment Edition)

57 Days to California, 8 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,308, Sanders 1,096 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,777, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 718 pledged delegates, 43.6% of remaining.
Sanders needs 930 pledged delegates, 56.5% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 131, Clinton 116.



Comments
I'm introducing something new into SotP: adjusted targets. The explanation is pretty lengthy, so there's a TL;DR at the bottom.

The current targets are those calculated by Nate Silver on March 30 (hence "3/30" targets), which are an update over the targets created by FiveThirtyEight at the start of the primary, against which Sanders is currently 90 delegates short. On March 30, the whole thing was reset to zero and the targets recalculated based on the state of the races so far.

I've taken that one step further. The adjusted targets, which I've calculated myself, are the number of delegates a candidate needs to take from a given state, plus the delegates he or she failed to gain from previous states. In other words, the adjusted targets reflect how many delegates a candidate needs to fall exactly on track for the nomination.

Sanders' 3/30 target track began at 1,038 pledged delegates. In the couple weeks since then, there were minor adjustments in the counts of previous states, resulting in his gaining 3 delegates. However, we also had the Wisconsin primary, in which Sanders fell 2 delegates behind target, and the Wyoming caucuses, in which he fell a further 4 delegates behind. In total, then, he is now 3 delegates behind his target, having 1,096 out of 1,099 needed delegates.

His state target for New York next week is 128 delegates. However, if he meets that number exactly, he will still be 3 delegates behind his overall target. Thus, to completely catch up to where he needs to be, he needs 131 delegates from New York. That's the adjusted target.

If he comes up short of 128, then that reflects the condition of New York alone; if he comes up short of 131, however, the difference will carry forward into the April 26 slate of states. If he gains 124 delegates from New York, for example, then the 7-delegate deficit is added to his April 26 target of 384, making an adjusted target of 391.

Right now Sanders is quite close to his adjusted target, only 3 delegates off. But in the end, this is the metric that really counts; there's no way to spin a deficit. If he is still 3 delegates off, or even 1 delegate off, when the last contest is decided, he fails to gain the majority and thus loses the nomination.

Now look at Hillary. Her 3/30 target is 119 for New York, but since she is 3 delegates ahead of her overall target, her adjusted target for the state is 116. If she only takes 116 delegates from New York (which is 47% of delegates), then she and Sanders are tied in the entire race. If she takes 119 delegates (48.2%), then the adjusted target for April 26 remains three delegates short of original. If she takes 126 delegates (51%), then her adjusted target for April 26 is 10 less than her original target. And so on.

Here's the TL;DR: The adjusted targets are a quick way to look at the results from a state, and judge from it the overall state of the race.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
The man who robbed the soap factory made a clean getaway!

April 10, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 10, 2016

58 Days to California, 9 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,308, Sanders 1,096 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,777, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.



Comments
I was surprised. Were you surprised?

Something tells me the folks on the ground in Wyoming weren't that surprised. Thanks to their efforts, of the eight states of the Sanders Tunnel, Sanders won only six. Six and a half, if you feel like being generous. The media, and certainly Sanders' supporters, are painting Wyoming as a victory, because he did handily win the popular vote -- but if that's the metric that counts, Hillary, not President Obama, should have been the nominee in 2008!

Now we're out of the tunnel, and back into states where, at best for Sanders, he and Hillary are in a real horse race. So let's consider some scenarios for New York.

First, because I'm still a pessimist, let's look at what I think is a worst-case scenario: Sanders takes 60% of the vote. He will gain 148 delegates to Hillary's 99, will exceed his target by 20 delegates, and his magic number -- the percentage of remaining delegates he needs, currently 56.5% -- drops to 55.9%. (Frankly, if he can average 60% in all remaining states, he's got this in the bag, so it's not much use worrying about this one.)

If Sanders gets 55%, he will gain 136 delegates to Hillary's 111, exceeding his target by 8. However, his magic number goes up to 56.7%. So it's either better or worse for him, depending on which metric you look at.

Say there's a tie -- we'll give Sanders the odd delegate, so it's 124 to Hillary's 123. He comes in 4 delegates under target, and his magic number goes up to 57.6%. Bad news either way.

Say Sanders gets 48%. He gets 119 delegates to Hillary's 128. Nine delegates under target, and his magic number is 57.9%.

Finally, and this is the best scenario I dare consider, say Sanders gets 45%. Sanders gets 111 delegates to Hillary's 136. Seventeen delegates behind target, and his magic number is now 58.5%. So he'll be back to where he was before the Ides of March, or even a bit worse off, with most of his best states behind him.

Bernie is a New York native, but Hillary is well-loved there, and it's a closed primary. Don't count Sanders out of winning New York -- but don't bet the farm on it, either.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
The coffee at the mechanics' shop is break fluid!

April 9, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 9, 2016

59 Days to California, 10 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,301, Sanders 1,089 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,770, Sanders 1,120 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.7% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wisconsin (April 5): Sanders 48, Clinton 38 (Sanders +11).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 48/50 (-2), Clinton 38/36 (+2).


Next Primary: TODAY

Wyoming: 14 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 11, Clinton 3.



Comments
Today is the last of Bernie's "great eight" states, the period between March 15 and New York when we knew full well he would command the states. Today is also the second-to-last stateside caucus in the entire primary; there are also three caucuses in the territories, but the only state caucus is North Dakota, on the same day as California. The total number of pledged delegates available from caucuses after today is 92.

There will be 778 delegates available from open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries, and 777 delegates from closed primaries. That's 1,647 delegates in total, and if Bernie picks up all of Wyoming's 14 delegates today, he will need only 56% of all remaining pledged delegates to win the majority. (That's the number Bernie supporters have been throwing around for a while now anyway, but now they won't have to round down quite so much.)

Call me pessimistic, but I think 14-0 for Bernie is the most likely outcome of today's vote in Wyoming. Once we know for sure, I'll be able to look at different scenarios going into New York and beyond. For today, let us commiserate the Wyoming results, and at the same time celebrate the resumption of Hillary's road to the nomination!


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
Pencil sharpeners have a rough life; they have to live off tips!

April 7, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 7, 2016

61 Days to California, 12 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,301, Sanders 1,089 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,770, Sanders 1,120 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.7% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wisconsin (April 5): Sanders 48, Clinton 38 (Sanders +11).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 48/50 (-2), Clinton 38/36 (+2).


Next Primary: April 9

Wyoming: 14 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 11, Clinton 3.



Comments
The final Wisconsin numbers are in, and while Bernie performed better than a lot of people thought he would, he did not perform well enough. He needed to net 14 delegates on the night; he netted 10. So it's Wyoming on Saturday, and then New York 10 days later. We'll start to consider New York in more detail after Saturday.

If, like me, your blood is boiling over over Bernie's latest smear of Hillary, here are some numbers to keep in mind.

Of the 173 Representatives who have endorsed in the Democratic primary, 166 believe that Hillary is more qualified than Bernie.

Of the 40 Senators who have endorsed in the Democratic primary, all 40 believe that Hillary is more qualified than Bernie.

Of the 14 state Governors who have endorsed in the Democratic primary, all 14 believe that Hillary is more qualified than Bernie.

Of the four Cabinet members who have endorsed in the Democratic primary, all four believe that Hillary is more qualified than Bernie.

These are all people who exist in the pool from which Presidential candidates are typically drawn. They know better than anyone (except for former Presidents) what it takes to serve in the highest level in the land. And with 7 exceptions out of 231, they all think that Bernie is either less qualified than Hillary, or downright unqualified.

One more thing: literally as I was finishing typing this up, I finally got the job offer that I've been waiting for lo these many weeks. (Huzzah!) I'm not sure yet how this will impact SotP updates, but it probably will. Remember that you can always find the latest edition in my journal.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
I've never flown a hang glider before; I'll have to wing it!

April 6, 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 6, 2016

62 Days to California, 13 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,298, Sanders 1,089 (Clinton +209).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,767, Sanders 1,120 (Clinton +647).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.8% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wisconsin (April 5): Sanders 47, Clinton 36 (Sanders +11); 3 not yet allocated.
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 47/50 (-3), Clinton 36/36 (+0).


Next Primary: April 9

Wyoming: 14 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 11, Clinton 3.



Comments
Bernie's target in Wisconsin was 50 delegates; he will either meet that target or come up between one and three delegates short. So at best, you can say that Wisconsin didn't hurt him any. Now on to New York by way of Wyoming.

I consider New York to be more or less neutral ground. On the one hand, Bernie was born and grew up in Brooklyn, and appeals to its large population of white young folks. On the other hand, New York is Hillary's home state by choice, and has a closed primary: only Democrats can vote in New York, and the deadline for registering as a Democrat was two weeks ago. Hillary's edge with Democrats is as large as Bernie's is with independents.

If Bernie can win New York, we can safely say that he's once again competitive in this primary. If not, we can safely say he isn't.

Speaking of New York, Bernie's interview with the New York Daily News editorial board is gaining wider awareness, which is very bad news for Bernie's chances with undecideds (and would be even worse news for him in the general, should he win the nomination). Here's a quick summary of that interview:

New York Daily News: Does the Fed actually have the authority to break up banks?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: How will that policy survive legal challenges?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: What laws did the CEOs actually break?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: How far do you want Israel to pull back their settlements?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: What should they have done differently in 2014?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: What's wrong with Palestine using the ICC?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: Is Obama doing the right thing about ISIS?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: How would you get information from captured ISIS commanders?

Bernie: I don't know.

NYDN: How do you ride the subway in D.C.?

Bernie: That's easy, you just insert your token and you get in.

NYDN: They haven't used tokens in over a decade.

Bernie: Oh. Then I don't know.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
Claustrophobes think better outside the box!



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April 6, 2016

What Wisconsin will mean...

Right now the popular margin is 57-43. If that margin carries over into delegates, Bernie will get 49 and Hillary 39. Hillary will lead by 214. (There is only one state before New York, which is Wyoming and its 14 delegates; hence if these numbers hold it will be mathematically impossible for Hillary to go into New York with a lead of less than 200 delegates.)

Right now, before the numbers are in, Hillary needs 43.62% of remaining delegates. If she gets 39 out of Wisconsin, she will need 43.58%.

So tonight has not helped Bernie at all.