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Amimnoch

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Breaux Bridge, Louisiana
Home country: United States
Current location: Houston, TX
Member since: Tue Jul 3, 2007, 06:34 AM
Number of posts: 4,142

Journal Archives

State of the Battleground - November edition.

September edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

October edition here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

Highlights: 2 new polls in Florida during the month of October from UNF and NY Times/Siena. FINALLY a new poll in Pennsylvania (first update since May) from the NY Times/Siena. No new poll in Ohio. New Emerson poll in Ohio. 2 new Arizona polls, NY times and Emerson (Emerson most recent). And last, a new NY Times/Siena for Wisconsin. Overall, Florida and Michigan are looking better, but the rest of the states are losing ground. The total 270 maps are looking the worst they have since I started this tracking. Remember light blue is a win, but WITHIN the margin of error. If we don't want 4 more years of Trump, our candidates really need to stop going after congressional required issues, and start focusing on what they will be able to effect changes on as President to undo the damage Trump has done imo. These issues attacks on each other are having effect.

States in bold have updated results:
Florida - 29 electoral votes - 2 new polls UNF, and NY times/Siena in October. NYT is most recent, and used for the map. NOTE: The UNF poll did not have stats for Bernie. MOE for UNF is 3.8 and 4.4 for NYT.
https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/FLStatewideNationalPollwCross.pdf
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/FL110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: UNF +5 win, NYT +2 win. Gain of 3 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Warren: UNF +3 win, NYT -4 loss. Loss of 4 points from the September FL Atlantic U poll.
Sanders: no UNF, NYT -1 loss. No change from the September FL Atlantic poll

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - New NY Times/Siena. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/PA110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +3 win, down from the May Quinnipiac that had him winning by 11 points. VERY concerning.
Warren: -1 loss, down from +3 win in May Quinnipiac
Sanders: +1 win, down from +7 win in May Quinnipiac

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from early October (was used in last months figures) - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - same poll used in October report.
Warren: +4 win - same poll used in October report
Sanders: +6 win - same poll used in October report

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - new Emerson October poll - MOE 3.0
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-democrats-aim-to-take-back-the-state
Biden: +12 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Warren: +8 win, up 2 points from August EPIC-MRA
Sanders: +12 win, up a whopping 8 points from August EPIC-MRA. Great gains on this one.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - Another state that had 2 polls this week. Emmerson is the most recent, so using that one for the battleground maps below. MOE for Emerson is 3.2, and 4.4 for NYT/Siena.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/AZ110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races
Biden: 0 points tie - down from +2 win from August OH Predictive insights.
Warren: 0 points tie - up from a -1 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.
Sanders: -2 loss - up from a -10 loss in the August OH Predictive insights.

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - New NYT/Siena October poll. MOE is 4.4.
https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019/blob/master/WI110419%20Crosstabs.pdf
Biden: +4 win, down from +9 win from August Marquette poll
Warren: 0 tie, no change from the August Marquette poll
Sanders: +2 win, down from +4 win in the August Marquette poll

Based on these polls, these maps are how the election would look if the polls were election reality. As before, ties remain battleground color, win/loss within the MOE are colored light red/blue as "leans", and a win or loss outside the MOE is dark red/blue.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

I LOVE my medical insurance!!!

I really do. My company provides for myself and my husband extremely well when it comes to the medical insurance they provide. With my primary care physician, the one that I really like going to, my office visit copay is $15. Urgent care visit? $25. ER visit $35. Neither of us ever have problems with our prescriptions, and very low copay on those as well.

That said, Iím still 100% behind either single payer enhanced ACA OR MFA, or any version of improvements to our healthcare system that we can put a CONGRESS into place to get for us.

Why? Because as good as mine is, I have family and friends that arenít so lucky. Because it still sickens me that so many donít have access to anything even close. Disgusts me that so many people go into bankruptcy.

Also, I am very aware that as good as mine is, I am only 1 kidney failure, or bad auto accident, or cancer, or heart failure, or liver/GI issue away from NOT having it. One firing or lay-off away. There is no guarantee or right to remain on the plan that i have or the job that I have.

And, even though I still think this is a ridiculous topic to have at all for POTUS candidates because itís a congress issue, I also think it only addresses a sliver of what needs to be addressed. WHEN we do get a congress that can pass improvements, and a POTUS that will sign off on whatever the congress we provided to them does get passed; it needs to be more than just healthcare insurance. It needs to be an infrastructure bill that increases the number of facilities around the country, number of clinics. It needs to be an education bill that helps us get MORE doctors, MORE nurses, MORE administrators, MORE technicians and phlebotomists. It needs to tackle medical research and pharmaceuticals.

Beto O'Rourke ends his presidential bid after campaign failed to take off

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/beto-o-rourke-ends-2020-campaign-says-he-ll-work-n1074811

DES MOINES, Iowa ó Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke dropped out of the 2020 presidential race Friday after a disappointing campaign that failed to build off the momentum generated from his longshot Texas Senate run.

"Though today we are suspending this campaign, let us each continue our commitment to the country in whatever capacity we can," he wrote in an email to supporters. "Though it is difficult to accept, it is clear to me now that this campaign does not have the means to move forward successfully."

Lagging in the polls and with fundraising, O'Rourke had yet to qualify for the Nov. 20 Democratic debate sponsored by MSNBC and The Washington Post.


Probably a good move at this point. Still a bit saddened, I had such high hopes early on for this candidate. Would have been a great thing for us to have had Texas as a strong battleground contender imo.

State of the Battleground - October edition.

1st and September edition here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

Highlights: Only 2 new polls have come out in the battleground states since last months posting. Florida Atlantic University poll put out in the end of September, and an Emmerson poll covering Ohio. All 3 of our frontrunners have lost ground and are now in near tie ups when matched up against the Cheeto in Florida. In Ohio, Biden has slipped by 2 points while Warren and Sanders have both made gains of 5 points and 7 points respectively.

Below is the raw numbers from each of the most recent RCP polls that covers all 3 candidates available. Ones in Bold are the only changes with updated matchup polls.

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Florida Atlantic University - September 2019 (new poll) - MoE 3.1
https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2019/florida-poll-finds-trump-popular-in-the-sunshine-state-while-biden-dominates-democratic-field.php
Biden: -1 loss - Slipped from +9 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Warren: 0 tie - slipped from +4 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: -1 loss - slipped from +6 win from the June Quinnipiac poll


Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019 - MoE 4.2 no new poll
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from this past week - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - slipped from +8 win from July Quinnipiac poll
Warren: +4 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: +6 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll


Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019 Moe 4.0
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019 MoE 4.0
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019 MoE 3.9
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

As before, here are what the maps would look like assuming these polls were election reality. Within the MoE remains battleground, within 2 points outside the MOE will indicate light blue/red indicating "leans", and >2 points outside the MoE will be solid Blue/Red.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map



State of the battleground!

My stated support from the beginning was for the candidate that I believe to be most likely to win in 2020. I also state regularly that I'm putting no stock in national matchups since it's painfully obvious we cannot count on these as they reflect the popular vote more than the Electoral college vote. Below is a look at each of the battleground states, and how the most recent matchup polls in those states are looking.

The below is ordered by the number of EC votes given.

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from June 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2629
Biden: +9 win
Warren: +4 win
Sanders: +6 win

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from July 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/oh/oh07252019_omwb36.pdf/
Biden: +8 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -1 loss

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

The above are all of the most recent polls, that covered matchups between all 3 candidates and Trump at the RCP site.

Below is what the matchup results above would look like on the 270 to win map. If within the margin of error, color remains battleground, if a narrow win light blue, if a solid win (6 points or more) dark blue.

Joe Biden map



Elizabeth Warren map



Bernie Sanders map


Very pleased that when it does come down to the critical states (as of latest matchup polls) all 3 of our front running candidates have the ability to take on Cheetolini!

The PABUS

ROFL, goodbye "cheetolini" and hello "PABUS" - Pussy Ass Bitch of the United States.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/chrissy-teigen-donald-trump-president-pab_n_5d77023de4b0752102319b1e

President Donald Trumpís Sunday night attack on John Legend and Chrissy Teigen backfired when it led to an insulting new nickname for the president.
But there was just one problem with the scathing presidential put-down cooked up by Teigen: Itís likely too dirty for Twitter trends ― so the presidentís critics had to devise another way to get it onto the list.

Trump attacked Legend on Sunday night after the musician appeared on an MSNBC special about criminal justice reform. He also insulted model and cookbook author Teigen but without mentioning her name.

Instead, the president referred to her only as Legendís ďfilthy mouthed wife.Ē

Trump tagged Legend and NBCís Lester Holt, but not Teigen ― and she fired back by taunting him with a new nickname:


https://twitter.com/chrissyteigen/status/1170914148919590914

Much more good reading at the Huffpo link.

Never thought I'd be reduced to using a word like that on any president (or anyone for that matter).. even Republican ones. I don't think I've used that descriptor for anyone since high school, if then, but with all the foul things he and his surrogates throw at us, and since this is something that elicits reaction from them.. I'm okay.

Moscow Mitch calling a special session of the Senate.

Philosophical hypothetical question 1:

You are an elected representative for your congressional district. Before you is a bill to vote on. You know that passing this bill would not be in the best interests or benefit of your own constituency, but it is also would be widely popular in your district.

Voting yes on this bill would benefit you in getting re-elected, and make those who elected you happy, but you know it will impact them negatively.

Voting no on this bill may jeopardize your chances at reelection, and you know it's going to make for some very unpleasant town hall meetings, but you do know it's what's best for your district and the people you represent.

How do you vote?

Pray for Trump, Psalm 109:8 - Lord hear our prayer!

"May his days be few; may another take his place of leadership"- Psalm 109:8



(For disclosure, I saw this as a meme on Facebook this morning, and found it too funny not to share)

Fox News, Ann Coulter, and Karl Rove.. oh my.



So, all of a sudden, Fox has gone all in on BS. Coulter is okay with BS, and ole Rove is shilling for him as well.

I guess medicare for all is now on the tRumpublicon platform? Democratic Socialism is just fiiiiine. They can all get behind BS!!!


You want to know why they are all in for BS?

https://www.openprimaries.org/primaries_by_state
See all those orange states? Those are the states that have open primary elections. Most of which none of the voters even have to do party registration.

Cheetolini isn't going to have any serious primary challenge. This frees them up to select the candidate that they think they can do their best with and load the deck.

So you can either believe that Fox News really did have interest in giving Bernie a great platform, and a "fair and balanced" coverage from it, and that Ann Coulter "really" believes that Bernie wouldn't be that bad, and Karl Rove really thinks that Bernie is going to be the hard one to beat because he has such great position.. OR

They are giving their nod to their voters that can vote in Democratic Party Primaries on just which candidate they should be going and vote for on those primary dates.



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